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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Meh, I'm Chinese..we have family in China..we have dealt with Chinese people our entire lives. We have a very good perspective in how Chinese people do business outside of China and inside of China. We also have a very good perspective in how Westerners see us as individuals and our products.

Now I'm not saying Chinese products are all bad, in fact we find Chinese quality to be pretty good today. I am just saying the Chinese BRAND is bad..most likely due to stereotypes and a dash of racism.

I mean you used Canadian Solar as an example for being successful even though their panels are all Chinese made and is a Chinese company. Why didn't they call themselves Chinese Solar? How come so many companies advertise "Italian made", "USA made", or "German Engineering"...but hide "Made In China" under the shoe? The Chinese branding is just bad because they are not known for being innovative. Most people think all they do is steal IP and sell you the value version of similar things without proper licensing agreements (which they absolutely do if you just go on Aliexpresss). This will never go away as long as those practices are common in China. "Chinese knock offs" is a term synonymous to many Chinese made products. I have never seen Italian knock offs, Japanese knock offs, or Korean knock offs.
My first boss in Thailand , a Chinese guy who had left China in 1947, told me "you're always harder on your own family because you always want your children to be better than you are". I never forgot that.
 
Relative purchased a Long Range Model Y with no options today in Fort Wayne Indiana.

Given October as a delivery date window.
Same here. Just convinced a coworker in South Lake Tahoe, CA, (about 3.5 hrs from Fremont) on Friday to place an order for Long Range Model Y without options. Given October as a delivery window.
 
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MM love the FEAR that can cause the market to dip. Delta at this stage is overblown.
I don’t know that Delta is overblown, especially considering the information I get from my ICU nurse friend, but I remind everyone how Tesla performed last year and continues to perform; with agility, tenacity and always keeping their eye on the mission.
 
That's really hard for me to believe and if true, actually makes me think they're behind on their plans for the Y verses the Cybertruck being ahead of schedule. Elon has all along said that there would be some Cybertruck make this year, just in low volume.
1626709001373.png
 
All these China theories and nobody mentioned the word Dumping (selling below cost, exactly how China stole memory chips from the US, it's illegal Int'l).
The way this new world is fought in cyberspace vs bombs, I don't think countries care much for the rules. As if Russia will listen to Biden to stop the hacking. Today more so, China does what it wants. If (Edit: China) is selling EVs below cost... what are we going to do? No really...
They don’t call it dumping, they call it pricing based on long term cost projection to maintain price stability.
 
There is a reason (bureaucratic sclerosis) Europe is falling further and further behind the US and China in the tech space

I definitely understand the reasoning....it's not the construction workers. It's a black eye and embarrassment for Germany Government officials. This was their chance to show the world that the could get out of their own way when it came to bureaucracy and really work with companies, especially companies with the next generation of technology.

And they've pretty much failed at that. Frivolous lawsuit after the next one and the next one.....when it's clear the lawsuits are stalling tactics. It would (and should) scare away any company that wants to invest there that is competing with local German companies.
 
This is actually not even a real situation, in the US, that is:
us-interest-rates
US bank has a mini-primer:
The old FT column, presented in the Financial Post suggests the zero interest rate-risk acceptance thesis:
lessons-from-japan-early-experience-of-ultra-low-rates-now-relevant-to-investors-around-world

Globally there has tended to be a movement fo funds from lower net interest rate environments to higher net interest rate environments. There are always multiple factors involved and a single aspect does not rule. That is, if inflation is ignore a zero rate environment seems clear enough but is not. Nearly every zero rate environment has been associated with asset deflation. The asset deflation often can act to depress securities preferences. Realistically, simplistic characterization of monetary policy are never valid, except by coincidence.

For Tesla the effects of such an environment are most likely to be associated with a decrease in sales volumes because of the underlying economic stagnation that usually is associated with ultra-low real interest rates. The impacts are quite complex. They usually do not yield direct positive impact on stock markets because of all that uncertainty, and uncertainty depresses fixed asset purchases.

Tesla will do best with economic stability. Most businesses tend to perform that way also.
Zero real interest rates are a mark of instability, so, as in Japan's recent case, the result tends to be a flood of money to foreign markets and foreign investment.
Sorry when I talked about interest rate I mean fed rate, not average avaliable interest rate.

Here is the s&p vs fed interest rates. Notice when rates are zero, s&p skyrockets.


 

That stuff is expected though in terms of what the Cybertruck would use as pack/cells. The part that is very hard for me to believe is that Tesla would be comfortable putting production of a new production with new/unproven manufacturing techniques ahead of a sure thing in production of the Y.

Of course, this source (if it's true), could mean that Cybertruck production will technically start first, but Y will be right behind it (like in the matter of weeks/days) and the Y will be in much higher production from the start.
 
The TSLA swings always seem to be bigger than I expect or see coming. This tends to cause me to buy the dip too early, and likewise sell to early. Oh well, next time.
I did recommend my wife buy 3 more shares today. She was going to go all in on Friday, suggested she investment average (what's the name for that strategy?) Oh, she picked up 5 shares!

Her investments are tied up in company brokerage "deals" so this was a cash purchase. We sink or swim together now :)
 
Biggest reason why Cybertruck could start sooner. My understanding is Cybertruck is a simpler production process. Since only stainless steel and unibody construction it doesnt even need the paint shop. The biggest reason why not is 4680 cells. Then again maybe CT just ramps much slower.
The main plant Cybertruck needs apart from stainless steel sheet folders is an 8000 ton gigapress for its rear casting. The two 6000 ton gigapresses currently installed and operational at Austin are only big enough for Model Y front and rear castings. The expected area for the 8000 ton Cybertruck gigapresses is only just getting the last columns and roof concrete panels installed. Idra only confirmed an order for the 8000 ton gigapress in March but no sign that they've actually produced one yet.

Most of the major plant (press, paint, BIW, gigapress) and a lot of the fitout is already in place for Model Y but still a long way off for Cybertruck. Therefore I see little chance of Cybertruck production occurring ahead of Model Y.