Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Selfishly, I want CT before Y out of Austin. Mostly because I want mine earlier! I can see the case for it first. It is a huge word of mouth marketing piece... just seeing those on the streets will have brand recognition everywhere. There is the ego side of first EV truck since Rivian delayed, there's a chance that could happen. Maybe not in the first quarter of production as it is a new type of construction, but 2nd+... CT likely has better margins. Playing into this, Plaid powertrain production might be ready to scale and they need more products to put it in to lower unit costs. No paint booth or environmental regs sign off for that part of the factory, so less to get done prior to production.

I don’t think Tesla cares anymore about ego - first EV truck to market - than they cared the Bolt beat Model 3 to market by a year. We know how that turned out for Chevy. I predict much the same for truck EVs.

First is wonderful if you actually have the better product. If you don’t, enjoy the brief headlines before being crushed.

 

[SOULPEDL]

View attachment 685939

This little guy, can Tesla sponsor him?
Get the real news too!

 

[Krugerrand]

Steel Dynamics Stinton will supply the steel for CT. They were supposed to be operational by end of summer, so probably September-October they will start sending the steel to Austin.

It might happen that CT will be 1st out of Austin, followed closely by Y.

I guess we will see, won’t we?

Again, not a chance in Hell. Body panel trials take months to complete.

Seriously, some of you are on contraband substances if you actually think this scenario has any legs.

 

[Unpilot]

Cool, it's a contest!
I'm in.

Ha...I already have dibs on that assault.

 

[Paul_SF]

Again, not a chance in Hell. Body panel trials take months to complete.

Seriously, some of you are on contraband substances if you actually think this scenario has any legs.

While taking another hit can I ask this: Then is it possible that they will supply from other plants and probably the trials are already happening?

 

[Bet TSLA]

Again, not a chance in Hell. Body panel trials take months to complete.

Seriously, some of you are on contraband substances if you actually think this scenario has any legs.

I would imagine that Tesla has been figuring out the Cybertruck line in Fremont. You think they need to go through the entire process only after completion of the Texas buildout?

Regardless, imaging that the Model Y won't be the first product out of GigaTexas requires some serious drugs.

 

[MXWing]

Again, not a chance in Hell. Body panel trials take months to complete.

Seriously, some of you are on contraband substances if you actually think this scenario has any legs.

I'm willing to be an escrow agent for @Krugerrand and all his takers on

1.) CT first from Austin
2.) Model Y first from Austin

Agree on terms, send bets to me and I will disperse at settlement.

Personally, I'm not optimistic on non hand made CT's in 2021 but I'm good with being proved wrong here.

 

[Curt Renz]

The DJIA is down 850 points, while GM & F are both down nearly 3%.

Yet TSLA has turned green.

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - 2 hours ago: How Tesla Could Transform the Auto Industry, Again

Excerpt :

Tesla, the company that transformed the auto industry with mass-market electric vehicles, has rolled out something that could be even more significant for the sector: monthly subscriptions for the software behind its highest-level driver- assistance options...

..Investors and analysts no longer worry about whether Tesla can make it happen. They spend their time on Tesla’s share of the EV market and projecting the overall growth of the industry. Soon auto investors and analysts will have to learn software investing terms such as ARPU—average revenue per unit, or user—as Tesla and its rivals try to conquer self-driving vehicles...

..New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu calculates that by 2030, Tesla will make roughly $7,000 in profit from selling a car and almost $23,000 from selling FSD subscriptions on that vehicle. With economics like that, he sees the entire industry migrating toward subscription pricing...

 

[SOULPEDL]

I'm willing to be an escrow agent for @Krugerrand and all his takers on

1.) CT first from Austin
2.) Model Y first from Austin

Agree on terms, send bets to me and I will disperse at settlement.

Personally, I'm not optimistic on non hand made CT's in 2021 but I'm good with being proved wrong here.

Odds please.

Again, not a chance in Hell. Body panel trials take months to complete.

No one has ever commissioned a Cybertruck for production. Although Bet 1 is unlikely, people seem to be steadfast in their assumptions applied to Tesla.
For example, how long it takes to qualify body panels. The GigaPress is another one... we know Tesla can manufacture anything, anywhere. Maybe made in Italy for all we know. Maybe it's my underdog attraction, but whenever someone says something is impossible, I don't ever believe them, nor should anyone here by now wrt Tesla. They blow me away on a weekly basis. Maybe it's not a bending machine, but more a gravity drop-n-fold. Has anyone seen one for CT panels?

5:1, so I get 5x my bet on 1. Not high enough odds you say? How impossible do you really think with Tesla?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

monthly subscriptions for the software behind its highest-level driver- assistance options...

I wouldn't be surprised if they have some cool new features for Powerwalls that are unlocked via a subscription plan in the near future.

In general, I could see subscription revenue being more than $500M/mo within 3-4 years. FSD + premium connectivity + future services we don't know about yet

 

[jerry33]

Barron's - 2 hours ago: How Tesla Could Transform the Auto Industry, Again

Excerpt :

Tesla, the company that transformed the auto industry with mass-market electric vehicles, has rolled out something that could be even more significant for the sector: monthly subscriptions for the software behind its highest-level driver- assistance options...

..Investors and analysts no longer worry about whether Tesla can make it happen. They spend their time on Tesla’s share of the EV market and projecting the overall growth of the industry. Soon auto investors and analysts will have to learn software investing terms such as ARPU—average revenue per unit, or user—as Tesla and its rivals try to conquer self-driving vehicles...

..New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu calculates that by 2030, Tesla will make roughly $7,000 in profit from selling a car and almost $23,000 from selling FSD subscriptions on that vehicle. With economics like that, he sees the entire industry migrating toward subscription pricing...

And we've seen how successful software development has been for legacy auto.

 

[woodisgood]

Personally I’d be thrilled if CT comes first, and in Fall of 2021. But you have to wonder about rumors that are fed to Tesla bull mouthpieces (and allowed to be shared). It’s a common page in the short playbook to try to set super high expectations that end up disappointing. So I would definitely not get my hopes up...

 

[thx1139]

Anyone else have the belief that releasing the FSD subscription indicates Tesla management (not just Elon) confident that autosteer on streets will release in the next few months?

My thought is they didnt release FSD with a limited time price for FSD without beta 9 functionality. So they are charging people $200 even without a major feature available. This goes on to long and those people get pissed.

With buyers we are in a different situation. When I sell my 3 with FSD I expect to ask for more then another person selling without FSD for comparable car. For some they will be pissed they barely or didnt have use of FSD and they had purchased it, but that is alleviated with using it to help sell at higher price. That wont be the case with subscription.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Chicks, guitars, and the 3rd World War. TSLA, NVDA, and the battle for Green.

Cheers!

 

[henchman24]

I don’t think Tesla cares anymore about ego - first EV truck to market - than they cared the Bolt beat Model 3 to market by a year. We know how that turned out for Chevy. I predict much the same for truck EVs.

First is wonderful if you actually have the better product. If you don’t, enjoy the brief headlines before being crushed.

I would say that is demonstrably false on the ego. Being first to market in segments, I think it is a feather in the cap Tesla likes, but not something they will push over anything else... so I can give on that (though I think they'd really like to show up Rivian based on their hiring). Ego in general... they want the fastest, safest, fastest charging, longest range and overall best EVs out there. To me, Tesla doesn't go Plaid in the S/X without the Taycan trimming at the S Performance. Now it didn't come out first, but pushed Tesla into that. Remember Elon said Plaid was a Roadster only thing at one point. Then there is the Roadster program in general. They want that to simply be the best car period. CT they want to check all the boxes above competitors along with having dumb things like it being bulletproof that are simply there to say they are the toughest. Tesla legitimately likes to have bragging rights in many areas. That is ego.

 

[Nocturnal]

Selfishly, I want CT before Y out of Austin. Mostly because I want mine earlier! I can see the case for it first. It is a huge word of mouth marketing piece... just seeing those on the streets will have brand recognition everywhere. There is the ego side of first EV truck since Rivian delayed, there's a chance that could happen. Maybe not in the first quarter of production as it is a new type of construction, but 2nd+... CT likely has better margins. Playing into this, Plaid powertrain production might be ready to scale and they need more products to put it in to lower unit costs. No paint booth or environmental regs sign off for that part of the factory, so less to get done prior to production.

There is more excess demand for the CY currently than the Y. As you alluded to there are also big advertising benefits to having a bunch of stainless steel monsters out there making F150s look cute. I'd say that it's generally to start building that name in the new market segment than to soak an existing one.

 

[ChefBoyardee]

My theory with the subscription rollout and pricing is they're trying to make the transition as gradual as possible to avoid a large hit to earnings due to lower up-front revenue.

- The subscription is U.S. only - all other countries will still have to pay the 10k
- The subscription price point only makes sense for some new buyers but makes a lot of sense for older cars that never had FSD
- They launched before FSD wide release - still makes more sense to lock in the 10k price for new cars right now
- The order page doesn't mention a subscription option

In the near term, Tesla can collect additional revenue from older vehicles while still getting the 10k from new vehicle sales. Over time as FSD becomes better, more people will choose the subscription.

I think if it all plays out as intended, we may see a neutral or positive impact on earnings next quarter and steady growth beyond that.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Only on TMC...where we rejoice when NAS is down 177 points and $TSLA is green and when NAS is up 177 points and $TSLA is red (so we can buy more )

 

[Prunesquallor]

In the Financial Times!

Robotaxis: have Google and Amazon backed the wrong technology?​

Robotaxis: have Google and Amazon backed the wrong technology?

An evolutionary approach to building driverless cars is challenging the companies targeting a ‘moonshot’ solution to full automation

www.ft.com

Driverless groups such as Waymo, Microsoft-backed Cruise, Amazon-owned Zoox and Aurora, which announced plans for a public listing last week, are betting on a “moonshot” solution with no plan B. They plan to offer full autonomy — albeit ringfenced to certain locations — or nothing at all. In regulatory jargon, this is called Level 4, in which a robot driver requires no input from passengers. Level 5, the highest step, would allow the vehicle to go anywhere.

This “go big or go home” approach stands in direct opposition to the step-by-step path of the ADAS players led by suppliers Mobileye, Aptiv, Magna and Bosch, which work with all the major carmakers. Their advances mean most new vehicles already have partial automation — Levels 1 and 2, including cruise control and automated braking. Tesla’s AutoPilot System is the best-known Level 2 system.
…
…if the evolutionary approach to building driverless technology proves successful, the upshot would be startling: the world’s biggest, most sophisticated companies — Alphabet, Apple, Amazon and Microsoft — would have all backed the wrong horse for a future technology widely expected to earn revenues in the trillions of dollars.