Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

I'm getting increasingly worried with all this Bladerunner/cyberpunk pickup speculation. Very few people in my neck up the woods are going to spend a lot of money on a pickup that is too far removed from our mental image of a pickup.

Not the target audience. Unless it looks cool enough to overcome bias. I'm expecting it to be super expensive anyhow so niche market anyway.

 

[S3XY]

i hope you're right, maybe have the mid-sized version in the bed like in the banner.
What about the normal-sized covered up pickup from that pic last week, the truckload of teslas?

That was likely just an F150 the carrier picked up because they had that spot open.

 

[schonelucht]

Do we have German S/X numbers? The corporate car tax incentives for EVs introduced this January are very generous - but might take time to be realized, as corporate purchases are often planned months in advance.

Only for the first two months. 187 S and 90 X. That's not going to save us, but March is the month to look out for. So fingers crossed we'll see good numbers there. Together with UK they could somewhat save the quarter but barring an outright miracle we'll be down several thousands S/X deliveries in Q1 compared with Q4.

The Model X delivery estimate in Germany already shifted to May, which suggests that readily available inventory is tight.

Delivery estimate is for new cars. You call up and they can still get you in a car from inventory. It isn't deep, but it is still there.

 

[Pras]

Chauffeur looks cramped,View attachment 387034

This is actually how my wife drives her Acura MDX!! So guess she won’t mind this.

Jokes apart, this is just to give more room in back (like most black cab drivers do).

 

[Unpilot]

Wow, that convinced me.

Oh wait, no it didn't.

Top 100 Reviews and Complaints about Tesla Motors

Your not convincible.

 

[Causalien]

I hope you're wrong. I'd rather help out the company I own, but my old truck ain't making it four more years.

And if the first iteration is an upper-end small batch vintage I think TSLA will be fine, it just might mean I drive something else.

By the way, I'm very appreciative of your posts here even when I disagree. Helps ward off my inner pessimist.

Tesla car's designs always takes some time to get used to because it is so alien. The model S's lack of a grill was a big controversy when it was first showcased. They are slowly pushing the envelop with each new model, but I think the pickup will be a "forget about slowly easing people into it, let's go all out foreign futuristic design look." Also once you start seeing other macho man driving the pickup, you might change your view of what is a macho pickup. It happened with the S and it happened with the 3.

 

[printf42]

About the 2.5k Model Y order “processing fee”.
Any take from legal point of view?

I am suspecting there are some specific legal binding for deposits that Tesla wants to avoid so they categorize the fee as processing fee, can someone familiar with those regulations confirm or debunk?

Also from accounting point of view, since it’s a processing fee, would they be able to book them as deferred revenue or profit of some sort? Would we be able to tell number of orders from balance sheet if they don’t release the number?

 

[Creekstalker]

This is very helpful input. It raises serious questions about the sustainability of high pickup sales. What you set out is that the pickup primarily satisfies a cultural need. A pickup that satisfies all the functional needs, but fails to give proper aesthetic expression to the cultural need ("does not look manly") will be rejected. So this is precisely the mistake that Tesla can make. It can put forward a vehicle that may excel in every functional way, but fail in cultural identification.

That's why I bring up the Ridgeline. It's the current best truck for me but due to some mistake in my upbringing/need to overcompensate for something/redneckish vanity I'll never buy one. There are a bunch of potential customers in the same boat who just won't say it out loud. If the Rivian pans out, we're still going to be paying those off when a realistic competitor from Tesla arrives on the scene.

 

[VValleyEV]

OK if the Tesla Pickup looks anything like the teased rendering with no hood to speak of in front of driver, near vertical windshield, and rugged military look, will be very interesting indeed for serious off-roadiing. But it is not likely be a relatively comfortable road trip vehicle like F-150 or Chevy Avalanche, or especially the upcoming Rivian R1T BEV. Images of the two attached.


Above the cyberpunk teased image, and below image of the Rivian R1T including a shot of the interior. I think the luxury pickup/SUV with off-roaring capability is the much bigger market than the cyberpunk off-road monster, so if teasers are close, Rivian has a wide opening (delivering early 2021) while waiting for Tesla to follow with what I think Elon referred to as a “more traditional pickup”.

 

[MikeC]

Data point: I just chipped in $5k autopilot revenue for Q1. I'm not the main driver so didn't expect to do it until FSD was actually released but couldn't pass up the deal.

 

[goinfraftw]

OK if the Tesla Pickup looks anything like the teased rendering with no hood to speak of in front of driver, near vertical windshield, and rugged military look, will be very interesting indeed for serious off-roadiing. But it is not likely be a relatively comfortable road trip vehicle like F-150 or Chevy Avalanche, or especially the upcoming Rivian R1T BEV. Images of the two attached.

View attachment 387037
Above the cyberpunk teased image, and below image of the Rivian R1T including a shot of the interior. I think the luxury pickup/SUV with off-roaring capability is the much bigger market than the cyberpunk off-road monster, so if teasers are close, Rivian has a wide opening (delivering early 2021) while waiting for Tesla to follow with what I think Elon referred to as a “more traditional pickup”.

View attachment 387037 View attachment 387039 View attachment 387041

Anyone have thoughts on construction and military...rather than consumer applications of such a vehicle?

 

[Creekstalker]

Tesla car's designs always takes some time to get used to because it is so alien. The model S's lack of a grill was a big controversy when it was first showcased. They are slowly pushing the envelop with each new model, but I think the pickup will be a "forget about slowly easing people into it, let's go all out foreign futuristic design look." Also once you start seeing other macho man driving the pickup, you might change your view of what is a macho pickup. It happened with the S and it happened with the 3.

This could happen. I do think, however, that the earliest adopters of the S are a culturally different subgroup from those likely to look at the Pickup. You're right though. If it's badass enough, being different might be acceptable. The Ford Raptor looked somewhat different than other trucks, but now everybody else copies the Raptor stylistically.

Unfortunately, I think the difference in the Cyberpunk pickup from what I picture in my head is going to be far more drastic.

I've appreciated your posts over the years as well, fwiw.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

About the 2.5k Model Y order “processing fee”.
Any take from legal point of view?

I am suspecting there are some specific legal binding for deposits that Tesla wants to avoid so they categorize the fee as processing fee, can someone familiar with those regulations confirm or debunk?

Also from accounting point of view, since it’s a processing fee, would they be able to book them as deferred revenue or profit of some sort? Would we be able to tell number of orders from balance sheet if they don’t release the number?

Can’t be profit; it’s fully refundable. Any line item for the “fee” would have to be accompanied for a liability item in case of refund. The fact that it’s fully refundable shoots a giant hole in any of the theories of nefarious reasons, IMO.

My take: its to prevent people from spamming them with reservations and then cancelling right before/during production to throw off their planning.

 

[Creekstalker]

It will probably go the way of Model S -> 3, Model X -> Y and then Model F -> U

Can't put my finger on why exactly, but this naming convention seems timely, perfect, even poetic.

 

[sundaymorning]

Note that at the end of Q4 Tesla had only 2,900 vehicles in transit to customers, and deliveries were 4,200 units higher than production.

For Q1 Tesla guided deliveries to be lower by 10,000 units than production. That's an incremental gap of 14,200 units of non-delivered cars.

If all of those are in-transit units then in-transit increases from 2,900 to 17,100 units.

That's were the Q1 "tiny profits with a lot of luck" and the later "we do not expect Q1 to be profitable, but Q2 is likely going to be profitable" statements originate from. (Shout-out to @ReflexFunds, @schonelucht and @brian45011.)

This is also why there are estimates of 50k deliveries for Q1'19.

This makes a lot of sense.

 

[Freder Reeve]

here's where I sit so far with the truck, i think the platform is the same as the semi, making production less of a strain, and hopefully the boring transporter too, eventually (looks similar to me at least). Also hope that regular truck will be a part of the mix too as suggested.

 

[SunCatcher]

It will probably go the way of Model S -> 3, Model X -> Y and then Model F -> U

S3XY, followed by FU? Yeah, unfortunately I can actually imagine Elon going for that.

 

[Fact Checking]

we'll be down several thousands S/X deliveries in Q1 compared with Q4.

That's the baseline expectations by past seasonal patterns: Q1 2018 S+X deliveries were 21.8k units vs. 28.3k units in Q4 2017: -6.5k units fewer.

Tesla in Q4'18 delivered 27.5k S+X units, so the baseline would be 21k units in Q1 - but the tax credit cliff would possibly reduce this below 20k.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

Hi all! Longtime lurker and stockholder since late spring of 2013.

The pickup truck speculation has me wanting to throw in my $.02. I currently own a 2004 F-150 with 230,000 miles and have a 2018 Corolla that I just bought as a daily driver for a 70 mile (round trip) daily commute. I now use the truck for my hobbies: hunting, fishing, hauling canoes, camping, etc. Stereotypical southern guy activities I guess. I only use the truck for those activities now because I'm gonna get an electric in a few years so it needs to last me that long. I will never be totally without a pickup, and can't wait to have an electric to use all the time and pass the Corolla down to one of my kids.

I think there are many thousands of potential electric truck buyers similarly situated. If I were to buy a new truck today, the one that would make the most sense for reliability, gas mileage, and my hobbies would be the Honda Ridgeline. Here's the problem with that: I'm never gonna drive a truck that looks like a Ridgeline. Judge my male redneck vanity if you will but I'm just not gonna buy something as unmanly-looking as the Ridgeline despite specs lining up with my needs. It's a little embarrassing to admit this but sales figures point to much of the market agreeing with me.

I'm getting increasingly worried with all this Bladerunner/cyberpunk pickup speculation. Very few people in my neck up the woods are going to spend a lot of money on a pickup that is too far removed from our mental image of a pickup. I guess it's a type of illogical conservatism but I suspect the weirdness in my own brain is widespread in the addressable market for EV pickups.

That Rivian pickup looks about perfect to me (not sure how I feel about the headlights), but I've got my doubts if we'll ever see it. I like the Bollinger (though only 200 miles of range makes me queasy) but we might never see that either. Bottom line is I really need Elon and Co to take on the F-150/Silverado/Ram and not go overly sci-fi. It gives me confidence that Elon has always mentioned the F-150 as competition but some of this more recent speculation has me worried. Tesla has gotten the big things right thus far. I think they'll continue to do that, but the pickup market is different from sedans and crossovers.

Happy for the existence of this community and would participate in a crowdfunding effort to pay the mods of this thread.

My guess is the "cyberpunk" truck is going to be a low volume, large work truck designed to do things like the F350-550 series and not something for mass consumption. But they'll follow that with a truer truck targeted directly at the large F150/Silverado market. Harder to know after that but another large untapped, potentially high-profit market would be a SUV with serious off-road capabilities akin to Jeeps/4Runners/Highlanders because the MY is designed for civilized environments and paved roads...

 

[KarenRei]

Can't put my finger on why exactly, but this naming convention seems timely, perfect, even poetic.

+ Model P
+ Model O
Model X
Model Y

Model S
Model 3
+ Model C