Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Doggydogworld]

Near the end of the clip, Baron said Telsa had "reduced the Cobalt content of the battery from 20-30% to 2 or 3%" Was the cobalt content in NCA cells ever close to 20%?

Also, he said Tesla vehicles get 4.1 miles/kWh while competitors' cars are only capable of 2.5 miles/kWh. Is that accurate?

20%+ cobalt would be LCO in the original Roadster. To my knowledge the original NCA formulations were 80/15/5 with cobalt comprising ~3.5% of total cell weight. A 2017 Journal of Electrochemistry paper analyzed 18650s from a Model S (probably 2015 or early 2016) and confirmed 80/15/5. Panasonic has likely since moved to a 83/13/4 formula with ~3% cobalt.

EPA rated the Jaguar iPace at 76 MPGE, which is 2.25 miles per kWh. Model X is 2.75 and Model 3 LR-RWD almost 3.75. EPA measures from the wall plug, if you convert to miles per battery kWh (assuming 10% charging loss) you get ~2.5 for the Jag and ~4.15 for the Model 3 LR-RWD.

 

[RobStark]

Harder to know after that but another large untapped, potentially high-profit market would be a SUV with serious off-road capabilities akin to Jeeps/4Runners/Highlanders because the MY is designed for civilized environments and paved roads...

Toyota's serious midsize off-road SUV is the 4Runner.

The Highlander is a Camry Crossover.

 

[RobStark]

Ford wouldn't let Elon call the M3 an ME because they had claim the E designation. I'm sure they would also claim rights to the F designation.

What Ford claims is not the letter E but Model E, Model A, and obviously Model T.

I don't think Ford will have a problem with Model F.

They might have a problem with a G-Series Truck though.

 

[EVNow]

388k was “year to date.” Which means it’s the first 2.5 months of 2019, which also happens to be the slowest quarter of the entire year for any manufacture. Demand in the US for this segment is likely 1-2 million? Maybe @RobStark can comment..

With Tesla owning 30-40% of that 1-2 million, you’re looking at 300-800k, take the middle number and it’s around 500-550k.

You clearly didn't read the linked article. It is for December '18 and shows YTD (i.e. full 2018 year).

Having said that, they put Model 3 in "mid size luxury" - which was 390k last year, including 140k from Model 3.

 

[jerry33]

By "no demand" you mean not 350k (i.e. 30k per month) worth of demand per year in the US ?

EM says the demand is about 500k worldwide. So you can just go by that and even if half of that is US, we are looking at 250k.

Are you really saying there is consistent demand for 350k Model 3s in US per year ?

ps : 2018 entire small/mid luxury car sales in US was 388k.

Small And Midsize Luxury Car Sales In America – December 2018 | GCBC

Based on previous experience with Tesla sales, many people purchased a Model S when they had never purchased a premium car before, and would never look at that type of car normally. I believe using the existing sales for that, or any, class of car does not apply to Tesla. (except maybe pickup)

 

[ZachF]

Great analogy on the motorcycles and trucks and the "functional fixedness" of consumers like me.

I'm uncertain, however, that the pickup we have today can't be evolved. If Rivian can live up to their promises, they'll have 400 miles of range and big towing capacity (notice the size of the "if"), and they'll have it in the traditional shape of a pickup. I'm willing to pay a lot of money for that.

I don't believe for a second that Tesla can't 1) do the same thing except better/more range and 2) beat Rivian to market.

In my opinion, the downside of the CyberPunkTruck/Halo Vanity Project is that it delays entry and first mover status into a lucrative market.

I've got a feeling, however, that we are all gonna be either dead broke or so wealthy that price isn't an object by the time there's an electric truck available for delivery from anyone. We'll feast or perish based on S3XY, not trucks.

Battery costs are going to need to come down a bit more for a trucks to work. Trucks are going to need 150+KWh battery packs. This will probably occur ~2022 for Tesla and a few years later for others.

 

[jerry33]

What Ford claims is not the letter E but Model E, Model A, and obviously Model T.

I don't think Ford will have a problem with Model F.

They might have a problem with a G-Series Truck though.

Somehow G and S3XY seem problematical.

 

[ZachF]

What Ford claims is not the letter E but Model E, Model A, and obviously Model T.

I don't think Ford will have a problem with Model F.

They might have a problem with a G-Series Truck though.

lol, Richard Shelby is such a slimy/smarmy scumbag....

 

[Krugerrand]

Somehow G and S3XY seem problematical.

B? S3XYR

 

[RobStark]

I know a guy here in Los Angeles that needs a pickup but drives a van instead because "he doesn't listen to Country Musac and have sex with his sister."

I know he is not a alone. So there is a market out there for an unconventional pickup.

Shout out to Blankpoint on Disqus..

 

[Antares Nebula]

Well, that's your anecdotal experience. My anecdotal experience is that my last 5 BMW/Mini purchases over the past 20 years have been mostly trouble free.

My Model 3 on the other hand has spent more time with service than those 5 cars combined and that's in less than six months of ownership.

Let's see how many "loves" my anecdotal experience gets compared to yours.

It's not just my experience. It's consensus among owners, mechanics, and luxury car aficionados (I know such people personally) that BMW reliability has gone down. But why is (was?) BMW still popular? Because, despite reliability issues, it's a really fun car to drive, really it is (was?) the ultimate driving machine. (I owned two with manual transmission and I loved how they handle.)

But no longer. Teslas are now the ultimate driving machine. The 3 and S are some of the best (if not the best) performance production cars you can buy. More fun and sporty than a BMW 3 series (and that is saying a lot). Even the BMW M3 can't compete with performance Model 3. Add in the EV and smartcar/autopilot advantages, and it makes absolutely zero sense to buy a BMW.

 

[ZachF]

I know a guy here in Los Angeles that needs a pickup but drives a van instead because "he doesn't listen to Country Musac and have sex with his sister."

I know he is not a alone. So there is a market out there for an unconventional pickup.

Shout out to Blankpoint on Disqus..

They want Brodozer powers without having to be associated with the people who drive brodozers (white framed sunglasses, flatbrim hats monster energy stickers, etc.)

 

[RobStark]

Somehow G and S3XY seem problematical.

Followed by Model O for the 25k sedan.
Followed by Model D for the $28k crossover.

 

[KarenRei]

I know a guy here in Los Angeles that needs a pickup but drives a van instead because "he doesn't listen to Country Musac and have sex with his sister."

I know he is not a alone. So there is a market out there for an unconventional pickup.

Shout out to Blankpoint on Disqus..

Not an aero shape. That said, I can picture that *reversed* (e.g. that the visible (not drawn-in) part is a rear taper. But there would have to be a way to open up that rear (glass?) for it to be practical as a pickup.

 

[ZachF]

Not an aero shape. That said, I can picture that *reversed* (e.g. that the visible (not drawn-in) part is a rear taper. But there would have to be a way to open up that rear (glass?) for it to be practical as a pickup.

I think the picture is close than your suggestion.

With a layout like that picture you could have a crew cab and a full bed in a much shorter package since you don't need a hood for the engine.

 

[carterm2]

Where will the Model Y get built?

 

[SunCatcher]

100 years later...

 

[CorneliusXX]

That's why I bring up the Ridgeline. It's the current best truck for me but due to some mistake in my upbringing/need to overcompensate for something/redneckish vanity I'll never buy one. There are a bunch of potential customers in the same boat who just won't say it out loud. If the Rivian pans out, we're still going to be paying those off when a realistic competitor from Tesla arrives on the scene.

Tesla doesn't need everyone to buy their pickup. If it is anything like the way people are trading up to the 3 from Honda and Toyota it could well create a new "tech-truck" category where all the urban warriors get one to go camping and still have climate control in the evenings.

Also, speaking as someone who grew up on a farm in a fairly remote part of Australia, there are so many advantages to an electric truck that it could look like a smashed pie and I would still want one for work. A small list of the likely benefits i can think of are:

• Excellent towing capacity due to electric motors - and the truck is much less likely to overheat while doing so
• Advanced traction control inherent in electric vehicles due to near instant response times for getting through muddy conditions
• The ability to run power tool and welders out in the paddock without having to run a noisy generator - absolute game changer for quality of life.
• You could also run e.g. a small fridge to keep lunch cool to make life a little more comfortable or store vaccine when you are vaccinating livestock in 35C weather.
• Night work would be easier as you could run more high powered lights. You could can lights off a generator now but it is a hassle - in an EV it is straight forward.
• Few mechanical parts to break down
• No engine radiator to get clogged every 5 minutes during spring when grass seed gets into everything - meaning air conditioning might actually work for an extended period of time
• No noise to scare livestock - also good for hunting if that's what you're into
• No concerns about running out of fuel if the fuel truck is delayed

90% of trips around the farm are short distance so range anxiety is not an issue - most farmers I know have more than one truck so an ICE for the times long distances are needed would still be helpful until the charging network is more robust

You might well be surprised as to what is seen as manly if this truck can out haul, out handle and out pace ICE trucks all while having comfort and style.

 

[oneday]

Where will the Model Y get built?

GF1 is currently the default plan, possibly could change, but unless we hear otherwise and soon, it will be GF1.

 

[EVNow]

Based on previous experience with Tesla sales, many people purchased a Model S when they had never purchased a premium car before, and would never look at that type of car normally. I believe using the existing sales for that, or any, class of car does not apply to Tesla. (except maybe pickup)

So, there is a lot of uncertainty in terms of volume, right ?

That's why I'm saying the assembly line should be flexible to make either 3 or Y. So, depending on demand they can shift back & forth.

Not sure why this is controversial.