Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Duffer]

So sad yet so predictable.

Just because they have failed at putting Tesla out of business, failed at keeping Tesla from capital raises, and failed at keeping Tesla out of the S&P 500 doesn't mean that their pitiful games will stop, ever.

If any other company posted these types of production & delivery reports, followed by earnings reports outlining YoY growth numbers the price targets would increase dramatically.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

On the configurator for Model S, the LR delivery time is estimated to be Feb-March. Plaid is Sept-Oct

 

[goinfraftw]

Maybe we're all in a prolonged, adult tesla marshmallow experiment?

 

[RobDickinson]

can you stop spamming the site with reddit links?

BTW reddit is blocked by my firewall here and all I see is empty post without even a comment..

 

[Artful Dodger]

He is correct. No "wizardry" just a ton of smart people making mostly very good decisions and executing on those decisions. Magic doesnt make Tesla work.

Last June, somebody asked Elon on twitter: "Why did you choose to be an engineer?"

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@engineers_feed Engineering is magic made real" / Twitter

Elon Musk on Twitter: "Or at least the closest thing to magic that exists in the real world" / Twitter

So while it's truth that magic doesn't make Tesla work, the results themselves are (nearly) magical.

Cheers!

 

[WattsHappening]

Practically everything recovered after hours except for Apple. Google up 3%+, MSFT up 1%, Apple down 1.7%, FB up 1.2%.

I still think Wall St is trying to throw a head fake when it comes to Tech and acting like they're going to sell off Tech when in reality, they're going to turn around next week and push everything higher.

Hardware versus software being one main difference.

 

[Singuy]

Okay guys, regardless how you guys feel about the lack of upgrades from analysts, chip shortage issue is the major concern and it didn't help when Tesla spent a good 20% of the call talking about it. It is currently the number 1 question on analysts mind for semiconductor company earning calls.

So a few things to look out for.

NXP semiconductors make a lot of chips for automobiles. Their shortage was due to a lack of wafer supply that started since Q3 of 2020 as automakers fully ramped to pre-pandemic levels. Then mid Feb their Austin plant was shut down due to the winter storm, which exacerbated the problem as they said automobile chips were near empty before the storm hit, so auto sector is hit the hardest. I would read the NXP earnings call transcript posted below.

August 2nd is their next earnings report and you can bet everyone will be grilling them about supply so I would expect major movements on Tsla depending on their conference call and out look. As of now they are expecting tight supply for all of 2021.

Tight supply affects Tesla's growth. Even though they have guided for 2H to have more deliveries, a very tight supply environment doesn't help if Tesla were to double capacity as Berlin/Texas comes online. This doubling of capacity will not happen if they have trouble hitting capacity with 2 factories today due to chip shortages. This is the major reason why analysts are posting softer growth for next year.

NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) Q1 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

NXPI earnings call for the period ending April 4, 2021.

www.fool.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

Perhaps you didn't notice, but it is still the middle of the morning!

I don't see it as remotely possible we close red today.

Erm, closed within 10 cents of the MA(200). That's how wedgies roll. They don't care about news, just their charts.

Did you foresee the Lower-BB today?

 

[SN_8]

Maybe we're all in a prolonged, adult tesla marshmallow experiment?

 

[22522]

Tesla can maybe buy NXP?

 

[FlamingPIG]

How the hell can you say FSD is an important component of your risk/reward assessment while assigning a 175 PT? Insanity.

here your answer

Itay Michaeli​

Citigroup
Wall Street Analyst

Ranked #7,516 out of 7,609 Analysts on TipRanks (#15,562 out of 15,700 overall experts)

-16% average return

Buahahaha
it's like they hire him to be their clown, or they are clown that attracts other clown

​

edit - link​

 

[Cattledog]

here your answer

Itay Michaeli​

Citigroup
Wall Street Analyst

Ranked #7,516 out of 7,609 Analysts on TipRanks (#15,562 out of 15,700 overall experts)

-16% average return

Buahahaha
it's like they hire him to be their clown, or they are clown that attracts other clown

​

edit - link​

It takes a lot of hidden skill to literally be in the bottom 1.1% of any group

 

[Singuy]

Tesla can maybe buy NXP?

That's like the biggest anti-trust red flag for regulators. One can only wish but no Tesla cannot buy NXP.

 

[Wigan]

This place is crazy, I'm taking my ball and going home!

Edit, I can't delete my posts, so I can't take my ball, so I guess I'm just going home! Sorry, but my posts will have to remain.

 

[Marc_K_inNJ]

I’ve been giving some thought to the idea of opening up the supercharger network.
I’m thinking that the underlying reason could be, to reap the benefits of the infrastructure bill coming down the pipeline.
President Biden said he wants to build 500k charging stations.
If Tesla is open to all, they are better positioned to get some of the billions of investment $ to expand the network.
If the network is closed only to Tesla’s, they would have a harder time convincing the “public opinion” why the government is giving Tesla the billions of $...

 

[RobDickinson]

I seriously doubt tesla will get public money for chargers without CCS fitted but then thats not such a big deal its been done in half the world already

 

[capster]

Maybe we're all in a prolonged, adult tesla marshmallow experiment?

I had an officemate at one time who also has a doctorate (though at times he had the bitterness of an ABD, all-but-dissertation) and his comment on that study was “Yeah, and what about the subjects that went on to get PhD’s? Those were the kids they didn’t have to give any marshmallows."

 

[gabeincal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1420204112663121924

 

[GOVA]

I seriously doubt tesla will get public money for chargers without CCS fitted but then thats not such a big deal its been done in half the world already

There is an another possibility. The all "competition" unit numbers are minute in comparison to Tesla. It will be even more so in the future. Tesla will grow while the rest, whoever it is, will just grow much slower.

Now, how about the rest licensing the outlet from Tesla. If they want to use the Superchargers, make an adapter or license Tesla's outlet.

Done and done.

 

[dhanson865]

At $12b quarterly revenue and $7.8b debt, Tesla's debt/revenue ratio is now a paltry 16.3%. I bet it ends the year under 10%.

Here are the other major auto OEMs for comparison (source: morningstar, TTM)
118.3% Ford
95.1% Nissan
93.0% Toyota
91.0% GM
84.7% Volkswagen
83.0% BMW
81.1% Daimler
58.6% Honda

These companies have to pay billions of dollars just to roll their debt over.

Per Top 25 Automakers by Market Cap

TSLA has a market cap of $621B and an enterprise value of $615B.

There is almost no practical difference between the two terms now when looking at TSLA, and at the end of last year the gap was almost non existent.