Forward guidance (supply-chain related) wasn't promising for AAPL.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I'd be fine with tsla sitting at this valuation if I knew the actual market expectation for the next year was actually as low as the street estimates but there is a lot of daylight for Tesla to beat and still underperform what most bulls expect.
Other than the money involved, the effort of investing feels a lot less rewarding when you see how unrelated to predictable outcomes it behaves. It doesn't feel rewarding to be generally right about the company and have the stock perform independent of outcomes. Tsla clawed years of valuation it earned before 2020 all in 2020 on the back largely of a split and a sp500 join and a generalized relatively undifferentiated EV bubble. That's ridiculous really. Companies with no product hit 10s or billions in market cap while tsla floundered in sub 50b range with major success and an early lead for a decade.
Other than the money involved, the effort of investing feels a lot less rewarding when you see how unrelated to predictable outcomes it behaves. It doesn't feel rewarding to be generally right about the company and have the stock perform independent of outcomes. Tsla clawed years of valuation it earned before 2020 all in 2020 on the back largely of a split and a sp500 join and a generalized relatively undifferentiated EV bubble. That's ridiculous really. Companies with no product hit 10s or billions in market cap while tsla floundered in sub 50b range with major success and an early lead for a decade.
RobDickinson
Active Member
P
I see market share as a "land grab", battery volumes are the key enabler, and really the only relevant factor.
Eventually competition will turn up and margins may tighten, but IMO that is after Tesla gets to 20M.
By that time all aspects of Tesla energy have kicked in...
Also building capacity is a "one time" thing that needs high margins and a large pile of cash, after capacity is built, margins might shrink.
I also agree margins will shrink due to the mission and the desire to produce affordable cars, but again that is mostly after the "one time"build.
Valuation is tricky because it relies on future projections and assumptions...I tend to think in relative terms, there is no obvious investment that I think will outperform Tesla over the next 5-10 years.
At this stage to rush to 20M sales is a 100 metre dash, Tesla is already 10 metres down the track, and some of the other runners are just getting set in the blocks.
I see market share as a "land grab", battery volumes are the key enabler, and really the only relevant factor.
Eventually competition will turn up and margins may tighten, but IMO that is after Tesla gets to 20M.
By that time all aspects of Tesla energy have kicked in...
Also building capacity is a "one time" thing that needs high margins and a large pile of cash, after capacity is built, margins might shrink.
I also agree margins will shrink due to the mission and the desire to produce affordable cars, but again that is mostly after the "one time"build.
Valuation is tricky because it relies on future projections and assumptions...I tend to think in relative terms, there is no obvious investment that I think will outperform Tesla over the next 5-10 years.
Paracelsus
Active Member
Thanks for posting, @Curt Renz . This is disappointing, and why should I be surprised with the revelations in the news regarding Toyota and others lobbying for an even softer landing by further slowing the transition to EV’s.
40% by 2030......as a goal? Are you kidding me? This is worse than Fred’s headline spins on TSLA attempting to make the negative sound positive. We could easily surpass 40% by 2030 without any ‘help’ from this administration. And ‘vehicle mileage standards’? That should accomplish little more than putting more polluting hybrids on the road in the meantime............exactly the goals of Toyota and Honda and others with their lobbying efforts. Sigh. What is it going to take to find real Climate leadership. It certainly doesn’t exist in DC.
I really appreciated @Krugerrand post yesterday after earnings were released - "In a perfect world Tesla would be given every bit of raw materials and every product and every smart human because they are doing the most with the least over every other company in the world."
As I have stated here before, it is OK to be critical of our own team while the Planet is on fire. And what actually annoys me more than a Climate Denier is someone who preaches the need to do something about Climate Change to everyone else but can’t seem to find it in themselves to change their own behavior.
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Favguy
Member
Crypto might outperform, but certainly not with the same risk/reward factor.
The Temple Mount is located in a country in which The Tesla Model 3 is far and away the most successful new car entrant.
Tesla Model 3 Is 2nd Best-Selling Car in Israel in June, Just 10 Units Shy of 1st
Over the past several months, the Israelis have placed many orders for the innovative electric vehicle from the American manufacturer Tesla. The Israeli market is now flooding with thousands of Tesla Model 3s, making it the second best-selling car, regardless of engine type, in the country in June.
www.tesmanian.com
Not only is the tourism beyond anything anywhere else but Tesla can be the vehicle one uses. The other most compelling site in that region is, IMHO, Damascus, but that is a less hospitable place these days and Tesla is not sold in Syria, even though Jordan and Israel have Superchargers being conveniently placed. Thus the Tesla fanatic with judeo-christian-islamic preferences in ecclesiastical art can satisfy themselves in Jordan and Israel. That must be enough for now.
FWIW, the Queen of Jordan is a Tesla fan, as is the King, but allegedly it started with the Queen. That is possibly apocryphal but I believe it.
lafrisbee
Active Member
Musk stopping as the MC/whatever of Earnings Reports is a very positive sign.
1. The company is stable enough to not need him to be all up in it as the face.
2. He is conquering his trust issues and/or he's found and recognized people for the job better than himself.
3. He's more effectively allocating his time.
1. The company is stable enough to not need him to be all up in it as the face.
2. He is conquering his trust issues and/or he's found and recognized people for the job better than himself.
3. He's more effectively allocating his time.
RobDickinson
Active Member
can you stop spamming the site with reddit links?
I’m in!
Every single time I finally get to this 6 digit magic number in my “savings account”, I feel the impulse to splurge on TSLA. Now, just one pay check away from my goal, I’m ready to send it all over to Fidelity to add more TSLA shares to my collection again.
C’est la vie!
Why? This is pertinent info about TSLA and investing.
You want more pages of skylight talk?
Practically everything recovered after hours except for Apple. Google up 3%+, MSFT up 1%, Apple down 1.7%, FB up 1.2%.
I still think Wall St is trying to throw a head fake when it comes to Tech and acting like they're going to sell off Tech when in reality, they're going to turn around next week and push everything higher.
RobDickinson
Active Member
I think perhaps they could be posted in the same comment with some relevant input from the poster..
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