I was expecting an Annual Shareholders Meeting announcement by now...
once again proving my powers of short-term prediction with Tesla.
once again proving my powers of short-term prediction with Tesla.
Last edited:
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
This times a hundred.
I am disappointed the stock hasn’t risen more than it has recently in order to increase my wealth.
I am disappointed the stock hasn’t fallen recently so I can buy the dip.
This is a confusing investment!,,,
I am disappointed the stock hasn’t fallen recently so I can buy the dip.
This is a confusing investment!,,,
I’m always surprise retail investors being HOOD like they never blocked them from buying GME 6 months ago. All these funds diverted from TSLA for quick speculation. All the options plays I see on Reddit from the retail investors expiring worthless on their gamble with AMZN, CRSR, AMC, GME or Dogecoin. They should keep doing It with the stock that made them rich in the first place and avoid getting burned like Dogecoin millionnaire who went from 3M to 700k. by selling his 180k of TSLA and going all in with Doge. Doge won’t be making the same positive impact in the world as TSLA. Hope people don’t get burned on the HOOD FOMO IPO.
Just remember, in the same way the media makes things up about TSLA, they can also claim that it's retail investors pushing up HOOD. Personally I don't believe it.
Sort of. First of all it will be $29k. It will probably be LFP and non 4680. But it is an effort to hurt Tesla by slowing sales. It may be ready early 2022 but can’t see it before.
Investing is a non-intuitive endeavor for most people. People have a tendency to do what worked last time because they think they are "learning". I would suggest to avoid this trap. You were an early investor in Tesla, perhaps because the cars were amazing to drive. That's good. The way the Model 3 drove was a major factor in my confidence in Tesla during the dark days of late 2018 through the first half of 2019.
But I would suggest that using the same process to try to determine the winners looking forward 5 or 10 years will not be as successful. It will not be revealed by which car is the most amazing to drive (they will likely all drive well and have different strong points and so personal preference and value offered will rule the day). Elon has made it abundantly clear the manufacture is the difficult part, that anyone can make a good car, the difficulty is in mass producing them at a favorable cost in high volume.
As an investor you are concerned with much more than how the cars drive, they will all likely be very similar in ways that matter to most buyers. Driving the cars will not tell you which one will last the longest, have the lowest warranty expense or cost the least to make. Some makers will be forced to price their cars below cost just to be able to sell enough to be viable. If they are priced too high, they sell even fewer and the cost to make each car rises as well. In any case, waiting for the cars to actually be produced will probably be later than ideal for investment purposes.
My point here is don't necessarily keep doing what worked last time, because you don't know why it worked. As investors we don't live long enough to learn long-term investing from experience. You can improve slowly over time by using past investment experience as a guide but you won't become an expert this way until long after you are dead. You can learn to day-trade from experience because it's possible to trade every day or multiple times/day to build enough personal experience to become an expert at it. But you cannot learn long-term investing through the same process. It's not going to happen on any meaningful scale. You need to parse different information to become a good long-term investor and study past examples and even have a good grasp of how the world works outside of investing. Apply first principles thinking to investing. Know that most of what you think is wrong. Ignore 90% of the stuff out there that most people think is important investment info and focus on the bigger picture, longer trends, and less specific info. Sometimes detailed data can help you see the bigger picture but it should only be used to generally inform, not to base investment thesis on. There is no certainty in investing, you have to use your knowledge of how the world works to see into the future and use an early and accurate understanding of how the broader trends unfold with time. And it comes down in the end to risk/reward ratio. You need to win bigger and win more than you lose.
Most data on this shows most people would be better off throwing darts at a stock board or simply buying S&P Index funds. I think most people are capable of doing much better than the statistics show because the statistics include people making a lot of stupid decisions, people who are not focused on what matters in the longer term. These are people who base their investment decisions on things they think are important. Price ratios, earnings, etc. Sure, at some point those things need to fall in line for your investment thesis to be proven correct but those are not metrics the most profitable investors use to form their early discovery of value in the market or their early discovery of problems with a previously successful company.
I will suggest the next Tesla is likely Tesla. If my thesis changes it won't be because I saw it in the sales data, it will be because I saw the company change in ways I don't like. Maybe a change in management that I don't think will be as effective, maybe a shift in the way the public is starting to view the company or a shift in transportation itself. Likewise, it probably won't be because I drove the latest model Tesla and didn't like the way it drove compared to the competition. I suppose that is possible, but very unlikely.
Tesla's big advantage is battery supply and manufacturing/corporate efficiency, things that competitors cannot quickly copy. That's why TSLA is a screaming buy for the long-term. Their manufacturing efficiency is on display on multiple fronts including their technological lead in EV drivetrains which allows them to build the same car with fewer batteries. That makes the car lighter and cheaper. Also, the manufacture itself is more efficient due to relentless application of first principles thinking, removing unnecessary steps wherever possible and making other steps more efficient. This is one area that traditional manufacturers are quite good at - the only problem is the manufacture of EV's is much different from the manufacture of ICE and thus has different optimizations. Because traditional OEM's are not nimble, it takes them forever to apply the necessary optimizations to all the new processes. That's why we can openly discuss it without worry!
On the other front, Tesla's corporate efficiency benefits from the same first-principles thinking as that used in their manufacturing, as well as lack of historical corporate baggage.
As an investor, if you want to take early action as competitors improve, you don't want to base your actions on the final product because it might be too late. You want to watch how the competition is changing, what processes they are employing, how they are progressing with reducing corporate overhead, how they are dealing with the baggage of their dealerships, how public perception is changing. I would suggest it might be a long time before Tesla has competitors than offer similar value.
I’ve had pretty good luck investing in companies where their product or service is awesome. Tesla, Apple, and Amazon were all in that category for me. It’s not like it catches every winner…. Google and Microsoft did fine without blowing me away personally. Still, if I drove another EV and thought “wow, this is awesome!” then I’d strongly consider investing. There are other factors, sure… batteries and manufacturing and scale and all…. But if I drove a Rivian or Lucid or Bolt or whatever and though “meh” then I definitely wouldn’t invest, no matter what their battery supply looks like.
It took all of 5 seconds behind the wheel of the Model 3 Performance before I knew I was buying that car…. Now that’s what I’m talking about!
If this person needs someone to get them coffee and lunch, I got a job!More beans probably spilled for AI day by this job listing.
Software Engineer, Autonomy - Mobile Robotics
The Role
Tesla’s Mobile Robotics team designs, builds, and deploys systems enabling scalable and flexible manufacturing lines for Tesla's growing product and factory portfolio. Products include multi degree-of-freedom autonomous mobile robots. The team joins mechanical, electrical, software, and manufacturing engineering disciplines in a highly collaborative team.
Core to the robot’s full autonomy, the perception stack presents a unique opportunity to work on state-of-the-art algorithms for state estimation and motion planning, culminating in their deployment to real world production applications. The perception software engineer will develop and own this stack from inception to deployment. The ideal candidate will have previous hands-on experience developing mobile robot perception solutions for commercial applications.
Responsibilities
- Build, integrate, and deploy real-time state-of-the-art perception models and algorithms into existing system architecture
- Develop online and offline state estimation algorithms by fusing information from cameras, IMUs, and other sensors
- Test and debug your solutions in realistic situations including in customer applications
- Validate and document performance of algorithms and models in real and simulated environments
- Design and build automatic data pipelines that create high quality, unbiased ground truth labels for neural network model training and deployment
- Create robust sensor calibration routines that perform reliably in complex and unpredictable environments
If you need someone to browse TMC and reddit for you while you are getting them coffee and lunch, I got you covered.
Why wouldn’t it be 4680s? 4680s are cheaper to produce for multiple reasons, wouldn’t make sense to not use them In the cheapest models In 2022 onwards.
one of the core reasons of the 4680s was to make it feasible to build cheaper vehicles.
The demand for a car under 30k increases by 3-5x. Not a time to tap into that market when the 4680s are not yet done and there's a world chip shortage.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Initially I can see them using a CATL pack which may be prismatic, or Tesla may get CATL to produce cylindrical LFP cells in the chosen size, which might not be 4680, but is probably a similar size and a similar process.
Why I still think cylindrical LFP is the prefered option relates to, production costs, similar process and equipment to Nickel 4680s and the structural battery pack.
Structural packs are a honeycomb structure, even if prismatic cells were stacked vertically, there are subtle differences.
Bottom line, we don't know, but my impression is Tesla has already made all of these decisions...
They would not complicate Battery Day by detailing the LFP formats, 4680 is optimal for Nickel, but a slightly different size might be optimal for LFP.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
If you drove the Lucid Air and thought it was a great car, does that mean you would buy a bunch of Lucid stock?
There hasn’t been any indication that the LFP cells in the Made in China 3 SR or Y SR are prismatic, has there? I thought CATL was already supplying cylindrical LFP cells to Tesla and I’m not sure why that would change.
Some chemistry has a brittle "ode" [an or cath] that cannot be wound on a tight radius. LFP may be one that wants to be stacked sheets.
Perhaps Elon can see a year into the future...
Morgan Stanley Massively Hikes Price Target on Tesla, Says Stock Could Almost Double
I think Morgan Stanley is doing a classic pump-and-dump. A “Tesla Mobility” that competes directly with Uber and Lyft doesn’t match Tesla Motor’s goal. Providing a service that only covers Tesla vehicles is a poor idea as luxury car owners don’t want to provide taxi services. Tesla Motors is...
teslamotorsclub.com
If you drove the Lucid Air and thought it was a great car, does that mean you would buy a bunch of Lucid stock?
It means I’d definitely be open to it. I am in agreement with Elon that low-volume production doesn’t mean that much, and I get that batteries and factories can both be limiting factors, and Lucid has to get the cost down a bit, and there’s the charger network issue, and plenty of other considerations. Tesla does have the whole package.
Lets take something slightly more realistic. We’re in the market for a 6-passenger EV. Currently have an X reservation, though it’ll be hard to beat the space of the minivan we’re coming from. What if the Lucid Gravity was great to drive, more spacious than an X, cheaper, better range, and by then Lucid has solved some of those things like OTA updates and a charger network, and let’s say they were prepared to build them in the monster numbers a popular SUV calls for in America… that could be an attractive investment. I mean, that’s presently about equal to fantasyland… but it’s the kind of thing I’m talking about.
What if the Mustang Mach E was great to drive? (I haven’t tried.) I still don’t think I’d invest in Ford at a minimum until they start to move meaningful numbers of EVs compared to ICE. But I’d sure keep an eye on them if they could build a great EV… because what if they do ramp it up or start releasing more good models in different form factors? If they ramp up and sell the Mach E and the F-150 Lightning in serious numbers, I think they’ll deserve a lot more credit than most of us here are giving them (myself included for now).
I do think a great product is a great sign.
Is the joke here that its impossible to drive a Lucid Air?If you drove the Lucid Air and thought it was a great car, does that mean you would buy a bunch of Lucid stock?
I am aware of LFP 18650 or 4680 cells that you can buy online from Chinese suppliers, don't know if they are any good.
I remember reading that the DBE process had a problem with a right radius, at least one of the odes...
It is possible the combination of DBE and LFP might be brittle... or that prismatic is viable and cheaper to make...
I would be interested to see if Tesla can make a structural battery pack with prismatic cells, if anyone can do it .....
Last edited:
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
