Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sudre]

Precisely.

I don't think many people have done the math on how cheap per-mile robotaxi services could be.

A $20,000 robotaxi amortized over 1,000,000 miles is 2 cents per mile.

The biggest savings is the driver. If you assume ~$30/hour labor cost at an average speed of ~30mph that's $1 per mile. Robotaxi will do it for a fraction of a penny worth of electricity.

Electricity is already cheaper than gas, and a fleet operator could purchase electricity at cheaper industrial rates (8c vs. 13c). 4mi per KWh at 8c per KWh is 2c per mile.

If you assume maintenance is the same as the capital cost (it's probably less) that's another 2 cents per mile.

Add these up, and you're at 6 cents per mile to build, pay off, maintain, and fuel up a car that can drive itself. 6 cents per mile is less than just the fuel cost of a car that gets 50 miles per gallon at $3 per gallon!

Let's triple that cost, to account for times when the AEV is carrying no passengers, and for a very healthy profit. 18c per mile retail cost. That's still less than the fuel cost of a 16.7 mpg car! It's probably less than the fuel+maintenance+taxes/etc of any fully paid off car.

With these economics, large portions of people in western countries will probably forego car ownership entirely. Two-car families will become one-car families. Poor countries, like we saw with cell phones where they skipped the landline phase entirely, will probably skip the car-ownership phase entirely as well.

Don't forget to add in the road use taxes. In Missouri I pay probably twice what I would if I owned an ICE but I get a pretty sticker.... still, robotaxies will be rather cheap unless local governments start adding in special taxes like a hotel tax.

 

[EL0NTRK]

Not sure this has been posted but TSMC announced price increase 10% to 20% on most chips beginning next year.
Not sure if this affects Tesla pricing

World’s Largest Chip Maker to Raise Prices, Threatening Costlier Electronics

The world’s largest contract chip maker is raising prices by as much as 20%, a move that could result in consumers paying more for electronics.

www.wsj.com

 

[RobDickinson]

Not sure this has been posted but TSMC announced price increase 10% to 20% on most chips beginning next year.
Not sure if this affects Tesla pricing

World’s Largest Chip Maker to Raise Prices, Threatening Costlier Electronics

The world’s largest contract chip maker is raising prices by as much as 20%, a move that could result in consumers paying more for electronics.

www.wsj.com

How much of the BOM is chips in each car? $500? That would be a $100 price rise, nothing like what we've seen in USA which is I assume based on raw mats cost increase

 

[jerry33]

Not sure this has been posted but TSMC announced price increase 10% to 20% on most chips beginning next year.
Not sure if this affects Tesla pricing

World’s Largest Chip Maker to Raise Prices, Threatening Costlier Electronics

The world’s largest contract chip maker is raising prices by as much as 20%, a move that could result in consumers paying more for electronics.

www.wsj.com

It would be more for other manufacturers as they use a lot more chips than Tesla.

 

[PeterJA]

You are correct sir. And that's not all he has wrong.

Tesla went public in June 2010, not January 2010. The author implies Tesla stock has split more than one time but the 5:1 was the only split.

But he's a retired cop who now covers stocks surrounding his passion for motorcycles, booze, and guns. What could go wrong? Not sure where Tesla fits into that but my real concern is what are you doing wasting your time reading amateurs on the Fool?

A financial journalist who can't do grade-school arithmetic seems ready to move up from Fool.com to CNBC.

$17 IPO adjusted for 5:1 split = 17/5 = $3.40, so $1000 would buy 1000/3.4 = 294 shares, currently worth 294 x $700 = $205,800 not $147,400.

But I'm not anal.

 

[BornToFly]

Interesting day....
Makers of cars:
Nio -1.77%
TSLA -1.41%
F -2.05%
GM -2.17%

Maker of nothing:
NKLA +2.95%

 

[FireMedic]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431040308943364097

So. Elon would prefer the LFP pack? It really makes me think we’ll be seeing a lot more LFP chemistry in N. America. Maybe 4680?

 

[BornToFly]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431040308943364097

So. Elon would prefer the LFP pack? It really makes me think we’ll be seeing a lot more LFP chemistry in N. America. Maybe 4680?

This makes it appear that Tesla Fremont is battery constrained, not chip constrained.

 

[BornToFly]

It feels like we are in a SP/Reality disconnect again this week. Nothing but incredible news on Twitter about massive European deliveries, including Model Y, but the SP is down instead of shooting up to 750+. I sold more Puts, because the disconnect can't last forever, so free $$$ IMHO. For non-option sellers, probably a good time to buy more TSLA if you can.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1431040308943364097

So. Elon would prefer the LFP pack? It really makes me think we’ll be seeing a lot more LFP chemistry in N. America. Maybe 4680?

I don't know if battery chemistry is off-topic but here goes.

LFP (Lithium Ferrous Phosphate) has a long cycle life and so you can charge to 100% and not really harm it the way you harm NMC (Nickel Manganese) chemistry cells. It also basically is impossible to make burst into flames. However, LFP has a much lower energy density and so for lower range targets it's fine but it will not do for longer range targets. It also tends to have poorer relative cold weather performance and that's an issue if you are living in a colder climate region.

NMC is what all the North America cars have been using up to this point. Only MIC 3 has had LFP, but that has to change at some point once Tesla needs to reserve NMC for long range variants of cars. I expect we will see a mix of LFP and NMC going forward in all regions once Austin and Berlin are up and running.

 

[Curt Renz]

I think the Fool has it wrong... adjusted for the stock split, shouldn't the IPO price be ~$3.80? Resulting in a gain of 18,700%?

$17.00 / 5 = $3.40.

 

[nativewolf]

Don't forget to add in the road use taxes. In Missouri I pay probably twice what I would if I owned an ICE but I get a pretty sticker.... still, robotaxies will be rather cheap unless local governments start adding in special taxes like a hotel tax.

Property tax on the asset and that will be priced at whatever the price is for someone buying one (FSD enabled vehicle price- say 50,000) maybe 1% property tax so a $5k/bill per car per year, plus business license and all the other vehicle fees. - another 1% of revenue, etc etc. On and on. As someone said. Cars pay a huge amount of tax, commercial vehicles even more. Robotaxis will have to make up that difference if they displace ICEs. Someone has to pay for roads.

I could see courts having to let judges go, marginal lawyers having to find a new profession, etc. Plus of course losing all those ticket writers. Going to be interesting.

 

[RobDickinson]

I don't know if battery chemistry is off-topic but here goes.

LFP (Lithium Ferrous Phosphate) has a long cycle life and so you can charge to 100% and not really harm it the way you harm NMC (Nickel Manganese) chemistry cells. It also basically is impossible to make burst into flames. However, LFP has a much lower energy density and so for lower range targets it's fine but it will not do for longer range targets. It also tends to have poorer relative cold weather performance and that's an issue if you are living in a colder climate region.

NMC is what all the North America cars have been using up to this point. Only MIC 3 has had LFP, but that has to change at some point once Tesla needs to reserve NMC for long range variants of cars. I expect we will see a mix of LFP and NMC going forward in all regions once Austin and Berlin are up and running.

Yep this, we've had LFP model 3 SR+ in our country for a while

~60kwh is the most they can pack into the car (for the SR model Y), the 3 gets less, its also as heavy as the long range cars.

But its cheaper to make and is more robust and charges faster at higher SOC etc , it has more issues at lower temps for charging I think tho.

Overall its a better car for the buyer (and tesla), its also cheaper to make...

 

[wipster]

$17.00 / 5 = $3.40.

Yeah, I just went off the low figure on eTrade... math is difficult for us old codgers...

 

[Skryll]

It also tends to have poorer relative cold weather performance and that's an issue if you are living in a colder climate region.

So you are saying, it is safe to sell calls expiring this December

 

[22522]

I don't know if battery chemistry is off-topic but here goes.

LFP (Lithium Ferrous Phosphate) has a long cycle life and so you can charge to 100% and not really harm it the way you harm NMC (Nickel Manganese) chemistry cells. It also basically is impossible to make burst into flames. However, LFP has a much lower energy density and so for lower range targets it's fine but it will not do for longer range targets. It also tends to have poorer relative cold weather performance and that's an issue if you are living in a colder climate region.

NMC is what all the North America cars have been using up to this point. Only MIC 3 has had LFP, but that has to change at some point once Tesla needs to reserve NMC for long range variants of cars. I expect we will see a mix of LFP and NMC going forward in all regions once Austin and Berlin are up and running.

Have we made the transition from NCA to NMC already? I have not been paying close attention.

 

[ggies07]

So how big of an effect does the cold have on LFP? We have problems now in the cold with our NCA batteries....I can't even drive from TX to Pagosa Springs,CO in the winter because I'm afraid of running out of range going through the mountains when it's 6 degrees and I have a mid range battery.

I'm all for LFP, but Tesla really thinks this is a non issue? What about the NE that gets hit with hard winters now?

 

[RobDickinson]

Its not been an issue here in NZ or so far in Norway from what I can tell.

 

[MP3Mike]

I can't even drive from TX to Pagosa Springs,CO in the winter because I'm afraid of running out of range going through the mountains when it's 6 degrees and I have a mid range battery.

Your problem is most likely because of the power needed for heating. That is significantly improved with the heat pump that the newer vehicles have.

I'm all for LFP, but Tesla really thinks this is a non issue? What about the NE that gets hit with hard winters now?

The LFP packs have been in Norway/Europe for a while now, and while they initially had some limitations, reduced power/charging, in cold it seems that they have mostly resolved them with firmware updates. You can go through Bjorn Nyland's YouTube channel, https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCG1QcV31eoSaX4rE8avQL4A, to find videos on the MIC Model 3 there and his tests.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

This makes it appear that Tesla Fremont is battery constrained, not chip constrained.

Indeed. Everyone so sure that the chip supply shortage will hamstring Tesla's Q3 and Q4. But given all the data/evidence we've seen, Tesla's still is going to ramp up in a big way, just maybe not up to what Elon was hoping for at the beginning of the year. I wonder if Fremont production is actually to expand in Q3