Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Please forgive me for joining this poster discussing Tesla stock in this investment forum, while others here fill up the forum with non-investment matters. FYI, there are other forums here at TMC for unrelated concerns.

TSLA has just been shoved under $700. This on a late summer day with light trading volume and no significant Tesla news that should warrant dumping. The macro market is not helping, but that may be related to unending Afghanistan news. Despite premarket publications of max-pain at $690, a cursory survey of options expiring tomorrow suggests that $700 may now be a more reasonable target for large option writers capable of manipulation. That assessment could change tomorrow.

Agreed. I do not see how the Maxpain is $690.... somewhere below $710 above $700 by eyeballing today's graph.

 

[Fred42]

Interesting...Yet POTUS is always praising $F and $GM...

View attachment 701645

These are bad numbers.

Ford got $6 billion as it says and has been making payments since (with an extension granted by the previous administration) but has not paid it all off. They didn't just keep the $6 billion.

Fisker got $200 million. $500 million was initially authorized but they were cut off after $200 million because they did not show progress per their commitment to the govt.

The net cost of the GM bailout was about $11 billion.

General Motors Bailout Cost Taxpayers $11.2 Billion

The total cost of the government's bailout out GM has come to $11.2 billion after the Treasury sold the last of its assets in December

time.com

U.S. government says it lost $11.2 billion on GM bailout

The U.S. government lost $11.2 billion on its bailout of General Motors Co <GM.N>, more than the $10.3 billion the Treasury Department estimated when it sold its remaining GM shares in December, according to a government report released on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think this is what is happening. I haven't seen any evidence of ships carrying MIC 3s to the US, yet anyway. This will free up the 2170 supply out of Nevada for more Ys.

Yeah after having a moment to think about it, it's definitely just the battery packs. There's just no way Giga China has the capacity to be shipping MIC SR 3's to the US, it would have been spotted already and all the ship tracking has no ships going towards the US.

I see everyone on twitter immediately abandons logic and are thinking the US is now importing MIC SR 3's (twitter is so annoying)

 

[wipster]

Some light hearted reading

If You Invested $1,000 in Tesla in 2010, This Is How Much You Would Have Today | The Motley Fool

It's obvious you would have made money on the leading EV maker, but how much?

www.fool.com

I think the Fool has it wrong... adjusted for the stock split, shouldn't the IPO price be ~$3.80? Resulting in a gain of 18,700%?

 

[dhanson865]

I think the Fool has it wrong... adjusted for the stock split, shouldn't the IPO price be ~$3.80? Resulting in a gain of 18,700%?

I did call it light hearted reading. Since I don't have a time machine it doesn't matter to me what the actual 10 year or 11 year gain was (they tend to talk about 10 year periods and 11 year periods in the same breath in that article so some of the math confusion could be from the time periods instead of or in addition to the split multiples).

14,600% or 18,700% either way it beat the S&P 500 for that period and if you want to do some mental what ifs you can.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think the Fool has it wrong... adjusted for the stock split, shouldn't the IPO price be ~$3.80? Resulting in a gain of 18,700%?

You are correct sir. And that's not all he has wrong.

Tesla went public in June 2010, not January 2010. The author implies Tesla stock has split more than one time but the 5:1 was the only split.

But he's a retired cop who now covers stocks surrounding his passion for motorcycles, booze, and guns. What could go wrong? Not sure where Tesla fits into that but my real concern is what are you doing wasting your time reading amateurs on the Fool?

 

[wipster]

You are correct sir. And that's not all he has wrong.

Tesla went public in June 2010, not January 2010. The author implies Tesla stock has split more than one time but the 5:1 was the only split.

But he's a retired cop who now covers stocks surrounding his passion for motorcycles, booze, and guns. What could go wrong? Not sure where Tesla fits into that but my real concern is what are you doing wasting your time reading amateurs on the Fool?

I just read what was linked my friend... I am just a Tesla Fool...lol

 

[thx1139]

So the Model 3 SR+ with the LFP batteries have appeared in Tesla inventory. Very doubtful if MIC Model 3. Didnt we hear that Megapak and Powerwall were switching to LFP. So likely these batteries were in shipments with batteries meant for Megapak and Powerwall.

Tesla inventory in US

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

A dozen posts about how to install an app, a dozen more about ordering a decanter, people asking which number to call to reach Tesla service. This is the investor thread but too many don’t seem to realize that.

All those posts have now either been deleted or moved to the OT thread. I’m seriously considering to just not care anymore and use my time for more rewarding things.

 

[RobDickinson]

I seem to remember something recently about China allowing LFP cell exports now? Or a patent thing?

No whole cars have been shipped that we know about so a bunch of containers full of pre-done packs would be the most liekly idea. Frees up some kwh of NCA 2170's for other projects ( fall-back plan for Austin model Y).

 

[willow_hiller]

So the Model 3 SR+ with the LFP batteries have appeared in Tesla inventory. Very doubtful if MIC Model 3. Didnt we hear that Megapak and Powerwall were switching to LFP. So likely these batteries were in shipments with batteries meant for Megapak and Powerwall.

Tesla inventory in US

I can confirm these are made in Fremont, CA.

Inventory API is returning:

CountryOfOrigin: "US"

For all of them, as well as semi-encoded VINs, for e.g. "5YJ3206_03982b22f199fc2e9a4034a1176ed014"

But starting with 5YJ indicates made in Fremont. Vehicles made in Shanghai start with LRW.

 

[thx1139]

A dozen posts about how to install an app, a dozen more about ordering a decanter, people asking which number to call to reach Tesla service. This is the investor thread but too many don’t seem to realize that.

All those posts have now either been deleted or moved to the OT thread. I’m seriously considering to just not care anymore and use my time for more rewarding things.

Understood, but I think to understand why this occurs. For people this is sort of the main topic for daily discussion about what is going on with Tesla the company. Sure mostly about stuff that moves the stock price up and down, but also just the day to day news.

 

[Buckminster]

Intraday $TSLA analysis
Experimental new thread to maybe ease the tension here.

 

[2daMoon]

I can't believe I just spent $150 on an empty bottle.

Oh, it is quite full of hopes and dreams.

Fortunately, solvent of choice may be added as needed to help ease the process of the waiting for, and the celebration of, their eventual achievement.

Edit: Whoops, sorry 'bout that Fred. Move this one too. I'll try to refrain.

 

[thx1139]

Intraday $TSLA analysis
Experimental new thread to maybe ease the tension here.

So before we get to far. Which thread is strictly stock stuff and which is for day to day news that may influence the stock or not?

FYI the inventory aggregator shows that 30 of the 191 LFP Model 3 SR+ are gone already.

 

[henchman24]

So before we get to far. Which thread is strictly stock stuff and which is for day to day news that may influence the stock or not?

FYI the inventory aggregator shows that 30 of the 191 LFP Model 3 SR+ are gone already.

This lack of demand is really starting to hurt.

 

[Doit]

I think this is what is happening. I haven't seen any evidence of ships carrying MIC 3s to the US, yet anyway. This will free up the 2170 supply out of Nevada for more Ys.

Rumors of made in China LFP battery packs have been around a while now:

May 3, 2021, Drive Tesla Canada:
Tesla website hints SR+ Model 3’s destined for Canada may include LFP battery packs

Bill Wright (who worked at Giga Nevada) and @carsonight, July, 2021:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419336499334586368

 

[MC3OZ]

So the Model 3 SR+ with the LFP batteries have appeared in Tesla inventory. Very doubtful if MIC Model 3. Didnt we hear that Megapak and Powerwall were switching to LFP. So likely these batteries were in shipments with batteries meant for Megapak and Powerwall.

Tesla inventory in US

Sooner or later Tesla should produce in house 4680 LFP batteries for Megapack, and Powerpack..

At battery day Tesla indicated Powerwall is staying with High Nickel, but I expect Powerwall to eventually move to 4680 LFP.... That may require a significant redesign...

I assume the Roadrunner lines would be capable of making 4680 LFP cells, battery day seems to imply that they can...

 

[mongo]

Sooner or later Tesla should produce in house 4680 LFP batteries for Megapack, and Powerpack..

At battery day Tesla indicated Powerwall is staying with High Nickel, but I expect Powerwall to eventually move to 4680 LFP.... That may require a significant redesign...

I assume the Roadrunner lines would be capable of making 4680 LFP cells, battery day seems to imply that they can...

Nickel and Manganese for PW, high nickel for trucks.

 

[ZachF]

I can confirm these are made in Fremont, CA.

Inventory API is returning:

CountryOfOrigin: "US"

For all of them, as well as semi-encoded VINs, for e.g. "5YJ3206_03982b22f199fc2e9a4034a1176ed014"

But starting with 5YJ indicates made in Fremont. Vehicles made in Shanghai start with LRW.

You can tell what country a car is made by the first digit of the VIN number:

1,4,5 = USA
2 = Canada
3 = Mexico

W = Germany
J = Japan
K = UK
Y = Sweden

That's all I can remember off the top of my head