Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cbrigante2]

That one would make a lot of sense. The US government is quite stupid, but I think they are realizing that we need some domestic chip production for security reasons. A war in East Asia could cripple our economy just from lack of access.

Perhaps the Panasonic/Tesla model as a start, with generalized production for other industries as the long term goal.

Not sure if any of you caught the chip fab story on 60 Minutes? It starts about 2 min in on this link (sorry...ads are unavoidable) but it really did a decent job explaining the state of things (at least to me). Even if we had a lot more production, apparently we've given up the tech advantage lead to Taiwan and there's really no catching up as they are going to spend more on R&D to maintain that lead (to make the cutting edge fastest chips). Interesting watch. Watch 60 Minutes Season 53 Episode 50: 8/29/2021: Chips, UAP, The Comeback - Full show on CBS

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If you're a Texan, a Tesla owner, and are worried about regulation holding up you getting FSD or a Robotaxi for years, I think you're fine

Texas Governor on CNBC with a long interview (where he loved to mention the words Elon, Gigafactory, SpaceX a few times haha) and he makes it pretty clear Texas (and it's regulation) welcome autonomous vehicles and are open to how quickly the pace is going with them. Wouldn't be surprised if the Semi Autonomous and Robotaxi programs launch in Texas first after hearing that interview.

 

[EVNow]

FSD take rate outside of US had been miniscule per some numbers Troy was tracking. Not sure how grounded it was, but 5/8 in the US may be an underestimate imho.

Let us say 90% of FSD is from US - so ~ $1.1B. That gives the upper boundary of what Tesla can recognize when the button appears (this month ?!).

 

[JoRoMo]

Let us say 90% of FSD is from US - so ~ $1.1B. That gives the upper boundary of what Tesla can recognize when the button appears (this month ?!).

I think the button was a replacement for us calling SC’s and emailing Tesla in hordes after Elon told us to reach out if interested, it will tell Tesla «I would like to be included in the beta» - it will not enable the beta directly.

 

[GrandEnigma]

LEAPs are fun again today looking though the options chain.

I am seeing Jan 23 $1275 at $54.43 and $1250 at $54.18, makes sense.

 

[navguy12]

Personally, I doubt that governments will ever get to the point where they ban unaided human driving. Market forces will strongly favor the best autonomy tech and it will become ubiquitous without being banned.

I wonder what effect auto insurance premiums will play if a driver insists on not using autonomy.

 

[Nocturnal]

I wonder what effect auto insurance premiums will play if a driver insists on not using autonomy.

Huge.

IMO once people have the option to use autonomy, but choose not to, then we will see some high profile court cases where the allegation will be that the driver was negligent in forgoing the far safer system so that they could drive themselves. After that insurance rates will vary wildly between self drivers and autonomous drivers.

 

[EVNow]

I think the button was a replacement for us calling SC’s and emailing Tesla in hordes after Elon told us to reach out if interested, it will tell Tesla «I would like to be included in the beta» - it will not enable the beta directly.

Thats possible - but I don't think the button is the same as "early access program". I expect everyone why presses the button and requests FSD to get it (unless there is some kind of limit, in which case it would be on a first come first served basis).

If this happens - Tesla can potentially recognize some revenue depending on the number of people who request the beta and gets included - or they may not bother if the limit is small.

ps : There seems to be an effort on Tesla's part to get this button out this month. So, may have something to do with ability to recognize some revenue.

 

[jeewee3000]

LEAPs are fun again today looking though the options chain.

I am seeing Jan 23 $1275 at $54.43 and $1250 at $54.18, makes sense.

View attachment 704324

Last price traded =/= current pricing. Last trade is most likely at different times and therefore different SP of the underlying ($TSLA).

Also: round number strike prices have way more volume/liquidity therefore have a lower bid/ask spread and therefore more interesting pricing.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla AI Day summary at EE Times. No new info, but good summary:
https://www.eetimes.com/tesla-ai-day-perspectives

I like the conclusion...

It looks like Tesla is hoping and/or depending on this neural network training innovation to make its Autopilot into L3 or L4 capable system — with only camera-based sensors. Is this a good bet? Time will tell, but so far most of Elon Musk’s bets have been good — with some delay.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Heard Phil Lebow use an interesting term. Buyers strike. He said he did not want to use it but.... Went on to deny Cathie Wood's speculation however. Buyers strike!

Discussion moved on to ford and F150 plants being closed and reducing shifts. They have a chip problem plus they are not making the vehicles the buyers want. It is related to chips but why.

Annualized production rate was around 18m per year back in April but now the rate is more like 13m. Is this what disruption looks like? Is the chip shortage because the fabs saw this buyers strike coming? Are chips being stockpiled by someone? Love to hear some data from the fabs.

Here's the CNBC segment: (I find it oddly relaxing to watch David Faber dancing on the head of a pin)

Cheers!

 

[Rarity]

I'm curios, how many of these processes must Tesla already do while manufacturing PV solar modules or batteries? I suspect there is some overlap, but alas as I am not an engineer, I would not hazard a guess.

I understand that there are some similar steps among the two, but not many. As one example, Applied Materials makes chip machinery and solar machinery. But its solar machinery has more in common with its flat panel display machinery than its chip machinery.

I haven't even scratched the surface of what surely is lots of important detail.

Solar | Applied Materials

Accelerating global photovoltaic adoption by delivering cost-effective solutions that integrate technology, equipment and materials to increase cell efficiency, improve factory productivity and lower operating costs.

www.appliedmaterials.com

 

[thx1139]

Here's the CNBC segment: (I find it oddly relaxing to watch David Faber dancing on the head of a pin)

Cheers!

These guys dont get it that every delayed ICE sale is a potential lose ICE sale. As time goes bye more EVs are sold an every EV sold is a potential sales tool to encourage someone else to purchase an EV.

 

[StealthP3D]

You misread. I posited that Tesla's tech is 10X safer than human and 5X safer than competitor. You would need to argue that the competitors tech, being just 2X safer than human, is good enough. In either case, a regulator is never forcing the industry everyone to buy a Tesla; the competitor always has the option to sell a vehicle to be driven by humans without the questionable autonomy tech.

Now some people have speculated that once autonomy tech becomes 10X safer than human than human driving would be banned. That would take us into to a whole new ballgame because demonstrating that your tech is mere as good (1X) as human would no longer be good enough; it would be banned along with unaided human driving. In this situation, it becomes debatable whether even 2X safer than human is good enough for regulators. Indeed some human drivers could argue that they themselves are 2X safer than the average human driver and ought to be allowed to drive unaided as well. This then would be a tough situation because they would no longer have the option of marketing vehicles for human driving.

Personally, I doubt that governments will ever get to the point where they ban unaided human driving. Market forces will strongly favor the best autonomy tech and it will become ubiquitous without being banned. As they fraction of vehicles on the road with 10X or better autonomy rises, the roads will become incrementally safer, even for hapless human drivers. For example, if you're the only human driver on the road and all other vehicles on the road have autonomy good enough to avoid having an at-fault accident with you, then the only accidents you get into are where you yourself are at fault. So your total risk of having an accident is reduced as the risk from other vehicles drops to zero. So to the extent that even unaided human driving becomes less risky over time and in response to vehicle autonomy uptake, governments have even less motive to ban it and face the ire of a certain segment of autonomy resistant drivers.

So I guess I net out to a position where most governments continue to allow unaided drivers, but hold autonomy tech to a higher standard. Governments will likely want to protect unaided human drivers from accidents with other vehicles where autonomy is at fault. Thus, autonomous tech would need to prove that it can avoid most accidents with other human drivers and especially any at-fault accidents. Also of course, autonomy must avoid accidents with pedestrians, animals and stationary objects. I suspect that any autonomous tech that can achieve this is likely more than 2X safer than human drivers. Indeed any autonomy tech that is merely 1X as safe as human on average is probably less safe than humans in as many scenarios as it more safe than humans. This raises the question, in which scenarios would regulators tolerate an autonomy system that is less safe than human? If the answer is none, then the average safety must be much higher than 1X. Indeed NHTSA looks to be doing some data mining on Tesla data to find out where if any Tesla's autonomy tech might be inferior to human drivers. If they find anything, then Tesla will have to improve upon that and be able to demonstrate superior performance in the future. So nominally I think Tesla needs to be at least 2X safer than human on average just to pass current regulatory scrutiny.

Meanwhile, Ford Blue needs to be able to navigate a bend in the road.

I didn't misread - I said that as long as humans were allowed to drive, regulators should and would approve another companies autonomous tech that was safer than a human even if it was not as safe as Tesla's system. To do anything else would be the same as forcing people to buy a Tesla or be even more dangerous by driving a car themselves rather than use an autonomous system that could double the safety factor.

This is not even a question.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I thought I was looking at TSLA for a moment:

View attachment 704274

Good for them, I know some folks at ASM NL from a long time ago. Here's some irrelivant history for those interested, and speaks to the outsourcing crave that hit the US turn of the century.

Spoiler: Some Intel, ASM, and Supplier History

Up until the 90's, the Dutch and Germans working at ASM/FICO (in a border town) had never written any equipment manuals beyond Tooling blueprints and schematics. It was not required because all of their customers knew Tooling quite well (precision machining, hydraulics etc). Along came Intel, who would hire low-skilled "Operators" that graduated highschool mostly. In fact, fat women were favored due to their job reliability (not partying or dating much, cheaper labor). I'm quoting the Ops manager from that era and heard this first hand with other people in the room, lol.

My assignment was to develop and deliver the Training for Engineers and Techs at each Factory on this Tool, but there was no equipment manual... nothing was explained, it was all tribal knowledge. So I spent ~6 mo writing the manual for them as they continued to shake their head at Intel's unskilled Operators. Our techs weren't much better at Tooling so the Factory Manager, BC Ooi, brought in Steve Moran from the EU to teach a crash course for the Technicians here in the US, most of which was about keeping things clean but also full of tips and tricks - like a human can detect a scratch or feature as small as 6 um with the fingernail.

That 1st ASM/FICO Equipment Manual was later shown to other suppliers as example for how to write a manual, until we wrote the spec used to demand it from all the other suppliers moving forward. (It was done pre-Windows, Apple computers were not allowed at Intel, so we had to use Wordstar with Kroy Lettering and rub on arrows for the halftone photos.) Nobody could put a price on information; it was (is) always difficult to value knowledge or writings, AND very little was documented back then. For the folks in the NL, they were likely a Tool and Die Maker because their father was. And they all had "piss hands" referring to the yellow color of their hands from the minerals in tool steel. It's a trade, learned through years of experience, and VERY difficult to get back.

Besides demanding better manuals, Intel went on to demand a lot more from suppliers to the point where every Intel supplier had their Intel version that was so special. My little Training world was what every world looked like at Intel. (If this story is sounding dated, take a look at how and why Intel fell behind on their technology to AMD recently. Intel equipment was so expensive and always took longer to make is the first clue.)

Then around turn of the century, we pushed all the Training and Manuals off to the suppler. Instead of growing the expertise in-house, my job turned into auditing and buy-offs against the specs we wrote, so I moved on to eLearning and 3D simulation tools. This surely saved HR a ton on paper! No clue on the extra capital expenses paid. Finally, all the Engineers in our group were asked nicely to leave in 2006, wow... even more money saved!

Pat Gelsinger (Intel's current CEO) comes from the technology side of the business - much more Elon-like IMO. Right away, his first act was to expand mfg in the US through some aggressive targets to the tune of about $20B. The last time I saw Intel invest in US Factories like this was decades ago, Craig Barrett, $7B. It was a risk build ahead of growth which paid off nicely. Sadly, only 13% of Intel Chips are made in the US today.

I'm sure many of us here saw these trades and skills leave the country, and maybe you were caught up in that "sucking sound" as Ross Perot would describe the jobs moving offshore. The topic hits a nerve in us because we saw it happen in realtime. We were encouraged to get MBAs vs new skills and the focus was lost, all for profit. This is not going to come back easily, but I'm going to try my best to help it along in my venture!

 

[navguy12]

If you're a Texan, a Tesla owner, and are worried about regulation holding up you getting FSD or a Robotaxi for years, I think you're fine

Texas Governor on CNBC with a long interview (where he loved to mention the words Elon, Gigafactory, SpaceX a few times haha) and he makes it pretty clear Texas (and it's regulation) welcome autonomous vehicles and are open to how quickly the pace is going with them. Wouldn't be surprised if the Semi Autonomous and Robotaxi programs launch in Texas first after hearing that interview.

Any mention of being allowed to actually sell Tesla automobile products directly to Texans in Texas?

 

[Curt Renz]

Craig Johnson of Piper Sandler wrote this before the market opening this morning:

Tesla Inc (TSLA - $734.09); Shares have broken out from a multi-month descending triangle; recently confirmed support off the 10-/30-week WMAs; add to positions, the next levels of resistance set up near $763 and $883 (‘21 highs).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Any mention of being allowed to actually sell Tesla automobile products directly to Texans in Texas?

Nope, the 2nd half of the interview was talking about autonomous vehicles. When Abbot was talking about welcoming businesses to Texas and making it friendly to them, he makes a point to mention Elon, Gigafactory, SpaceX. Then the interview turns entirely to autonomy. While the interview initially talks about a specific trucking company setting up shot to start their autonomous short range trucking service in Texas, Abbot makes it clear that Texas is welcoming autonomous companies to Texas to start their services there.

 

[EVMeister]

Craig Johnson of Piper Sandler wrote this before the market opening this morning:

Tesla Inc (TSLA - $734.09); Shares have broken out from a multi-month descending triangle; recently confirmed support off the 10-/30-week WMAs; add to positions, the next levels of resistance set up near $763 and $883 (‘21 highs).

Ah, the smarter of the two Johnsons.

 

[S3XY]

If you're a Texan, a Tesla owner, and are worried about regulation holding up you getting FSD or a Robotaxi for years, I think you're fine

Texas Governor on CNBC with a long interview (where he loved to mention the words Elon, Gigafactory, SpaceX a few times haha) and he makes it pretty clear Texas (and it's regulation) welcome autonomous vehicles and are open to how quickly the pace is going with them. Wouldn't be surprised if the Semi Autonomous and Robotaxi programs launch in Texas first after hearing that interview.

But it's too dangerous to sell a Tesla there.