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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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How is this not public disclosure?


Colin Rusch -- Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. -- Analyst

Thanks very much. Can you talk a little bit about the geographic dispersion for the guidance for 2019, where you're expecting the Model 3s to sell through as well as the other models?

....

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, maybe in the order of 350,000 to 500,000 Model 3s, I mean, like that this year.
Hmm, if/when this goes to court all the defense needs to do during their opening statement is "press play"
 
Musk’s lawyers told the SEC that not one tweet was reviewed pre publication
And from what we've seen so far, none needed to be reviewed. Do you have some tweets you can share you feel violated the "material" aspects of the settlement? As others mentioned, the agreement wasn't requiring every tweet to be pre-approved unless I missed something. Maybe you can clarify if I'm mistaken.
 
If any take private deal occurs I will be returning my fking Tesla, cancel the Model 3 and give Elon my middle finger. I didn’t stick around this long and go through all this drama to be conned. When Elon stated he took his shareholder’s opinion in consideration when he decided against his own $420 take private deal he needs to own up to his words. Taking Tesla below $420 is clearly not considering his investor’s financial health in mind and shows manipulation on his part. The idea of him taking the company private below that price is preposterous. His reputation will take a huge hit, and even his most adoring fans such as myself will turn against him.
why are you getting so worked up over wildly unsubstantiated claims from one person on the internet?

might want to take a break from this topic versus getting this angry.
 
Nafnlaus on Twitter

Comedy from @SEC_Enforcement - the following tweets from @elonmusk are given as examples of "written communications that contain, or reasonably could contain, information material to the company or its shareholders"

D1-wIyYXQAIGDsd.png


D1-wOW4XQAUBYzP.png


D1-wX72XQAAh1Ed.png


D1-xYEfXQAAeIGB.png
 
Interesting choice for an example. Having moved from california to Texas, in order to get a driver's license, had to get car registered, but to do that car had to be insured and inspected. Lots of regulations here in texas, unlike california, did not have this much trouble just to get a drviers license.

Texas is great for business if you are a fortune 500 business, for example car insurance rates are higher despite the great business climate, because there is no regulation on how much auto insurers can charge or use from the premiums for their own profit/investments. California auto rates were about 25% lower than texas, since CA auto insurers are stipulated on the amount of their premiums or profits that they can allocate for investments.

As always, pls feel free to correct me, however i called over 6 different auto insurers to get a semi decent rate, nowhere near that in california...

Larmor, If you'd like to PM me I can refer you to my insurance broker. I am currently Insuring a Model S85D, a Model 3 MR and a P3D all for under 2k a year. This is with half million dollar across the board coverage, rental car, full glass, etc etc.
 
Whaaa??? SEC claims Musk didn’t cite any instance of saying they would produce 500k cars in 2019... Leaves me wondering: Did they read his response?

The fact that they emphasize that total vehicle production wasn't disclosed is correct - Musk didn't cite total vehicle production, only Model 3. But they've of course cited S+X production figures elsewhere many times. The SEC is basically saying that "adding two public numbers together" is material information.
 
How is this not public disclosure?


Colin Rusch -- Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. -- Analyst

Thanks very much. Can you talk a little bit about the geographic dispersion for the guidance for 2019, where you're expecting the Model 3s to sell through as well as the other models?

....

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, maybe in the order of 350,000 to 500,000 Model 3s, I mean, like that this year.

The SEC seems to argue in a footnote that he never actually said that.
 
OT: Somebody mentioned the Bolt as competitor (yea, I, too appreciate a sense of humor!) - just FYI, as of last Saturday the Model 3 with its "1-month-only-deliveries" outsold all the Bolts ever sold in Norway (called Opel Ampera-E over there).

EDIT: Also really liked this post here: Tesla Model 3 vs. US Incumbents — Gun In A Knife Fight Or Fair Fight? | CleanTechnica

On Price of competition vs. Model 3

Tesla-Model-3-vs-Luxury-Sedan-Competition.png


and then sales last year:

Luxury-Car-Sales.png

(I would have chosen a different chart to visualize this but I think the point is still pretty clear).

There is massive potential! This kind of post I would like to explore more and see more in the media!

I find it unusual many are comparing model 3 to “luxury” category - isn’t $35k entry price far below what is considered luxury?

I know the high end trims are decidedly luxury, but surely now with SR & SR+ we are solidly looking at the mid-priced car segment? Especially as various fed & state subsidies in the US and aroud the world bring that down to the low $30k’s or less.
 
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The fact that they emphasize that total vehicle production wasn't disclosed is correct - Musk didn't cite total vehicle production, only Model 3. But they've of course cited S+X production figures elsewhere many times. The SEC is basically saying that "adding two public numbers together" is material information.

They’re also apparently arguing that suggesting total vehicle production would be >= production of a subset of said vehicle production is material...
 
I’m no lawyer, but the SEC response sure seemed unprofessional. Very emotional.

It seems fit for purpose, the core of the issue is that Elon Musk uses Twitter to disclose inside information (which is appropriate, because it is widely publicly disseminated) but although Musk has used Twitter in lieu of SEC filings, doesn't stop those twitter statements from being equivalent to SEC filings.

On a more basic level, SEC is full of administrativa whose job is to check that SEC filings fulfill the letter of the law and regulations. Once every CEO communicates share price sensitive information via twitter, SEC's work load will expand an order of magnitude. They need these twitter statements to be checked by a company's lawyers first, whether the company is Tesla or happy Joe frackers in the Permian basin.

A key point, Elon Musk has excellent guanxi, his taking private tweet at $420 was simply....something that would have significantly more profound implications for lesser CEOs.
 
Nafnlaus on Twitter

Comedy from @SEC_Enforcement - the following tweets from @elonmusk are given as examples of "written communications that contain, or reasonably could contain, information material to the company or its shareholders"

D1-wIyYXQAIGDsd.png


D1-wOW4XQAUBYzP.png


D1-wX72XQAAh1Ed.png


D1-xYEfXQAAeIGB.png

The SEC is smoking some real crack if they think that's material information. There are so many first amendment implications in what they are trying to do that it is laughable.

They totally screwed themselves by putting this into the court system. They had way more leverage to tie up the Tesla legal team in knots trying to appease the SEC before it moved to some sort of formal complaint.
 
The fact that they emphasize that total vehicle production wasn't disclosed is correct - Musk didn't cite total vehicle production, only Model 3. But they've of course cited S+X production figures elsewhere many times. The SEC is basically saying that "adding two public numbers together" is material information.

@KarenRei Can you point me to one of the sources for 2019 production numbers for the S&X?
 
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I find it unusual many are comparing model 3 to “luxury” catergory - isn’t $35k entry price far below what is considered luxury?

I know the high end trims are decidedly luxury, but surely now with SR & SR+ we are solidly looking at the mid-priced car segment? Especially as various fed & state subsidies in the US and aroud the world bring that down to the low $30k’s or less.

$35k base defines the entry level luxury class. 3 series, A4, C class et. al.
 
The SEC's main argument - which they make over, and over, and over again - is that the agreement doesn't state that Musk is allowed to determine what's material, so he can't.

It also doesn't say that he's allowed to breathe, so I guess he's not allowed to do that either.

As a reminder, here's what the SEC agreement actually says:

upload_2019-3-19_0-54-32.png


And here's what policy Tesla implemented:

upload_2019-3-19_0-53-24.png


Nothing... anywhere... about who must determine it. Yet the SEC is basically saying, "well, of course Musk can't", even though they never banned him from doing so.

I'm sorry, but contra proferentem, SEC.

Also, here's the worst part:

upload_2019-3-19_0-58-21.png


Except that Musk did not write - IN QUOTATIONS - "will make 500k". It was about 500k. The SEC is misquoting Musk, leaving out a critical adjective which hurts their argument, and doing so in quotation marks, as though it's a direct quote of Musk's tweet.

Are we seriously supposed to presume good faith here? I hope Musk's lawyer rips them to shreds over this.
 
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Nafnlaus on Twitter

Comedy from @SEC_Enforcement - the following tweets from @elonmusk are given as examples of "written communications that contain, or reasonably could contain, information material to the company or its shareholders"

D1-wIyYXQAIGDsd.png


D1-wOW4XQAUBYzP.png


D1-wX72XQAAh1Ed.png


D1-xYEfXQAAeIGB.png

Ah, I missed that they actually cite something now. So yes, this would imply that any tweet(or other communication) about anything, whatsoever, would need to be reviewed according to the SEC. Heck, one of those is just a re-post of a public article written citing a public Tesla safety disclosure...