Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

I don't remember any more who posted this today, but here it is again:
EV registration statistics for The Netherlands

Norway, Netherlands and Spain, as of today, are at 4718 cars for the quarter: so we are already close to 10000 cars for EU for Q1.
Netherlands numbers are much lower than Q3 and Q4, not sure why... If there is a bottleneck and gets solved quicly we could see a surge in deliveries.
I'd be surprised if we were under 12k. We could even dream 15-16k.

 

[lklundin]

Another way to approach this: it seems very reasonable that 30k NA and 40k international M3s also. Would not be surprised of NA was actually 40k, maybe international less??

For the EU + China Model 3 Q1 delivery estimate, we know for a fact that there was zero inventory when Q1 started.

I have seen few estimates of the number of Model 3s on the various shipments for EU + China, the first one had about 1800 (IIRC) and Elon Musk tweeted something about 4k for another. Several have guessed at an average of 2500 Teslas per shipment, for a total of 40k cars on 16 shipments in Q1. With no Model 3 EU + China inventory going into Q1, every Model 3 shipped but not delivered will thus count as in transit when the quarter ends. This includes the reported 300 Teslas that missed the boat on Pier 80 last week.

So I wold say that 40k EU + China deliveries is on the optimistic side, with uncertainty coming from the size of each shipment, hold ups in customs and the ability to actually move these cars from the import harbours and out to their prospective owners - with all paperwork finalized.

For example, I believe the delivery can only be finalized when the owner has proof of registration which in turn requires insurance and it is the first quarter where regulators and insurance companies are dealing with the Model 3 in the various EU countries + China. As such there have been reports of major Model 3 delivery delays in Sweden.

So I could well imagine that Elon Musk's appeal to move an extra 30k cars in yet another end of quarter push also applies abroad.

I guess we will know in two weeks...

 

[EVNow]

From this I am guessing that BMW resort to the highly discounted lease contracts for their ICEs because demand for these vehicles has dropped, while they are able to actually sell every i3 that they can produce.

Or they knew i3 would not be a competitive quote.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Netherlands numbers are much lower than Q3 and Q4, not sure why.

NL is closest to the port at Zeebrugge. Customers in that area will get the cars from the last ship to arrive before the end of Q1. This minimizes time from offloading to delivery when time is at a minimum. It's basic logistics.

 

[RobStark]

O.T.

You can get your own pair of Air Jordan 1 "Tesla Editions" for 5.57 TSLA shares.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"A man needs God like a fish needs a bicycle"
View attachment 387808

SHORTSVILLE TIMES: Merman spotted pedalling on Detroit River!

 

[mutle]

SEC response to the court is in:

secvmuskreplyravicher.pdf

 

[SpudLime]

SEC response to the court is in:

secvmuskreplyravicher.pdf

"Prior to the 7:15 tweet, Tesla had not publicly disclosed any forecast of the total number
of vehicles it expected to produce in 2019."



haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahhahahahahaa..... NO

 

[Johnny Ma]

SEC response to the court is in:

secvmuskreplyravicher.pdf

"
Indeed, Musk offers no explanation of how he arrived at the
counterintuitive conclusion that pre-approval was not required. Conspicuously absent from
Musk’s submission is any citation to a prior public disclosure that Tesla would make around
500,000 cars in 2019. This is because no such disclosure had ever been made prior to the 7:15
tweet."

...WHAT?

 

[capster]

SEC response to the court is in:

secvmuskreplyravicher.pdf

 

[SpudLime]

I cant remember who it was.. One of the "loooong" posters, @Fact Checking....@karenrei...., commented on how the SEC had to be FUMING with the 60 minutes admission that he hasnt gotten approvals for his tweets yet and his disrespect for the SEC, The SEC has been WAITING for some tweet to respond... My zero training in legal matters sees right through this. They dont have sugar to stand on for that last tweet, but they are using it to let the court know Elon said he wasnt having his tweets filtered yet. First opportunity they got.

 

[anthonyj]

SEC response to the court is in:

secvmuskreplyravicher.pdf

I’m at the gym, only read about 20% of it so far, but I think Elon is bringing Tesla private. This is comical and a waste of time

 

[HG Wells]

WTF: "A retired science teacher said she was concerned the panels would prevent plants in the area from growing"

Woodland, North Carolina There science textbook

 

[Intl Professor]

As an "Extinguished professor," my wife's phrase meant as double entendre. Given the increased volume on this thread alone I cannot read more than ten percent of the posts as noted above. So a triple entendre is justified. At least one of the three distinguished mods reads every post despite gainful employment and the other two probably do as well. One of them is running his own business. It just takes time. I am pleased no one complains about the mods just that they are needed.

As most here probably realize, much goes on behind the scenes. Many more than you can know are getting shellacked when appropriate. You also do not know that none of the local mods can ban someone permanently. Temporary bans are permitted and imposed, sometimes in multiple as snakes re-emerge like gophers.

I'd like to give a list of no, no's for newcomers, but will limit it to one since regulars here can provide a more insightful list. Don't dump on a member.

Some wise philosopher of Greek extraction is reputed as saying something like "Moderation in everything, even moderation." S(he might have also said: "The best moderation is self-moderation." A gratuitous advice for newbies as almost everyone here is really fine.

 

[azaz]

musk never running a tweet by the securities counsel Is a really bad look. shows that he wasn't really making a good faith effort to comply with the settlement he signed.

 

[SpudLime]

musk never running a tweet by the securities counsel Is a really bad look. shows that he wasn't really making a good faith effort to comply with the settlement he signed.

The what?

 

[DaveT]

SEC response to the court is in:

secvmuskreplyravicher.pdf

Geez, after reading the SEC response my first thought was:

Why does the SEC's lawyers have such vitriol toward Elon?

 

[elasalle]

Cheers![/QUOTE]

musk never running a tweet by the securities counsel Is a really bad look. shows that he wasn't really making a good faith effort to comply with the settlement he signed.

While judge ruling can come out anyway, why would Musk have to check with counsel for providing numbers that he had mentioned in cc, and that was stuck with him.

Most interesting thing would be whether SEC actually read details of cc prior to filing the contempt litigation. So far we don't know whether SEC was aware of Musk's cc statements prior to the filing? If it was aware, then at least there was no clarification on why previously provided numbers were a violation?

 

[Pezpunk]

musk never running a tweet by the securities counsel Is a really bad look. shows that he wasn't really making a good faith effort to comply with the settlement he signed.

Or he was complying by not tweeting anything that could be remotely considered material information.

 

[azaz]

my only point is if Musk signs a settlement he needs to be grown up enough to actually follow it.

for people that know, will Musk get a chance to respond or do we just wait for the judge to rule and whats the timeframe on that?

somewhat good news is that SEC is fairly explicitly only asking the court to, in their view, make Elon comply with the settlement vs pushing for a punishment.