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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I can't imagine Tesla holding off on Giga Austin deliveries until 2022. Everything we see is they are primed to start churning out MYs very soon:

 
My theory is that switching to EVs will happen faster in other countries than here in Norway. Last month 71% of cars bought here were EVs. I know several people who drive fossils but say their next car will be electric. In my street half the cars are never EVs and half are older fossils. I think Norway will continue to race to the top of the S-curve.

I’ve been pondering about this. In my country the percentage is about 20. With a car lifetime of, say, 14 years, that means that next year the sales of gas is reduced by 1.5%. in Oorwatje however, that means that 5% less gas will be pumped. I don’t know about Norway, but here selling gas is a marginally profitable business. Losing 5% of turnover every year quickly has repercussions And some will go out of business, giving a boost to the gas stations absorbing their remaining customers.

Gas stations are quite abundant, so in the beginning ICE cars will still find a gas station nearby. But in a few years, ICE car owners in Norway will start to notice, I think.

My friend's TMS inspired me to buy my Tesla. He now want a Taycan (yes 🤷‍♀️) partly because Teslas are so boring when everybody has one. And I've heard this from others too. They may not be a large percentage of buyers - but they are a percentage of a growing crowd of EV buyers. So I'm surprised if Lucid and Rivian can't manage to get as many customers as Tesla did in their early days.
On this board I’ve expressed the opinion before that there is a reason why car companies have several brands and don’t consolidate them. In any case, hopefully the new paint shops will allow a wider spectrum of colours.
 
So where are we thinking we will go by Friday, with all the “triple witching” shenanigans? 🤔
I don't have very good internet from my pool. I hope I don't fall in and loose signal. But clearly, on Friday, the SP will be 7
 

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Tesla was already making about 5,000 connectors before the new China factory started which has the capacity for 10,000 connectors. So Tesla in total has capacity now for 15,000 connectors per year.

they should up capacity at Buffalo, and convert the Tilburg NLD facility to making superchargers.
 
Apparently KoGuan Leo has > 5 mil shares of tsla.

I previously posted that I felt our whale may have built a wall around his intended purchase price/volume with options - perhaps even at a loss on those options given the magnitude of his share volume. Doing so would have still ensured overall profit on a large enough purchase of shares. Now this is beginning to smell like TSLA might be getting set up to be the next GameStop or AMC play IMO. Given the massive TSLA short interest that still exists despite a very near-term Q3 blowout, combined with the recent extensive effort by MMs at the end of every week to carry too much exposure through the weekend in their effort to control TSLA gains, I think there is every reason to believe there may be more whales in this pod ready to squeeze the bait. And if this is true, this could happen quickly as we have seen on other stocks (not an advice).

I was initially confused about this very public signaling of such a large purchase - for why would anyone want to encourage a share price increase with more buying pressure if they wanted to acquire more long term shares, unless it wasn’t a long term play and the ultimate goal was to encourage all the buying pressure they can in the next couple weeks while MMs and Shorts are WAY over extended - in the same way Hedge Funds were overextended on GME and AMC. Recall that the forces that squeezed the Hedgies continued to buy all the way up……they kept their foot on the pedal and prevented an early off ramp by doing so. So perhaps the MMs and the Shorts and the Hedgies just found out their game plan to keep steady negative pressure on TSLA going into Q3 deliveries/earnings isn’t as simple as stealing from Robinhood investors - many of whom were just kids trading on cell phones. They might now be backed into a corner publicly by a billionaire signaling the need for more buying pressure ASAP - signaling that everyone should keep buying as the share price continues to run up. This would be a great time for the whole WallStreetBets crowd to pile on.

This is of course speculation on my part, but doing so with some very glaring recent similar examples to draw from. History does tend to repeat itself- especially when it is ungodly profitable.
 
Once again, some volume starts coming in the last hour of trading. MM's having to use a lot more $ to cap to not let it break above 760.

If we actually end the week above 750....which I still find very hard to believe given how much this week of the month is affected by options...then we really are step to explode higher next week.
 
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Got a text message on Friday saying our MYP was available for delivery and to schedule it, I was going to be gone all this week and next on a project and responded with 'Need assistance'...Got a text today saying "Moving on to next buyer as i did not schedule delivery"....Demand problem :) Let's see how long its gonna take to source a new one when i return :(
 
That profit margin seems super high to me?

Tesla has to pay AT&T for the unlimited LTE plan for each subscriber out of the $9.99 they collect, plus whatever they pay slacker per subscription, etc...plus whatever minor admin costs are involved in making all that happen.
The contributory costs may have changed recently, so I could have overestimated. My logic is that for the parties mediating the Tesla offer the per user averages are the material part of cost, which is offered on a wholesale basis. The material variable is per vehicle average (i.e. mean, not median or modes) use. The outliers will certainly get a very cheap deal, but the mean usage will be quite low. Further, for Slacker at least, the heaviest users will have Premium Accounts of their mown because they'll want the various multi-device and/or multi-user custom options. Finally, were this even 5G rather than LTE there would be fairly low average use.

I'm out of date on bulk data plan costs. When I was up to date total throughput was the pricing basis with number of users being a small cost, primarily initial authentication and ID maintenance costs. Data volume was and is the primary cost. At maximum a Tesla will not typically be a data hog. 'Typically' is the key, for there are and will be outliers.

I could have overestimated but I doubt it.

If this were retail data pricing per vehicle the amortization of acquisition costs alone would eat close to the Tesla charge. That is why it really is a good deal for everyone, including Tesla.

Should someone have clear contrary data I would happily change my opinion. I hope someone has up-to-date wholesale multi-user data plan pricing in a vehicle setting. That would help remove much guesswork.
 
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Got a text message on Friday saying our MYP was available for delivery and to schedule it, I was going to be gone all this week and next on a project and responded with 'Need assistance'...Got a text today saying "Moving on to next buyer as i did not schedule delivery"....Demand problem :) Let's see how long its gonna take to source a new one when i return :(
I can’t believe you don’t schedule your life around all things Tesla related. Lame.