Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Deliveries is currently the best tool we have to estimate production. Tesla is very good at not over producing cars even if deliveries or demand falls. This was pretty evident q1 2019 in which their deliveries fell but so did their production by a substantial amount. This ensure they are not too cash flow negative for the quarter.

I think you have it backwards. Production fell due to some changeovers and deliveries followed. There were also some errors in shipments for optimum deliveries.

And I disagree that estimating deliveries is the best way to estimate production or that exact production numbers (before Tesla tells us what they are) are even important in the big picture. If it were that important, big funds would form a collective and hire people to count vehicles as they left the two factories. It would be very cheap in the greater scheme of things and the numbers would be much more accurate.

 

[Krugerrand]

Here's a golden one:

"he is the 2nd richest person in the world that just had a paid rocket ride as a huge advertisement. Him giving $50 mm is like the average American donating $250"

How many people have donated $250 to St. Jude or ANYWHERE ever.

Now lets see who should be ashamed.

That’s so much candied apple. It’s not like the payment for the trip went into his pocket. Never mind most of his wealth is tied up in stock/stock options; it’s not sitting in a bank account or under his mattress.

People who say such ridiculous statements are a lot of things, but smart or virtuous they are not.

 

[StealthP3D]

Here's a golden one:

"he is the 2nd richest person in the world that just had a paid rocket ride as a huge advertisement. Him giving $50 mm is like the average American donating $250"

How many people have donated $250 to St. Jude or ANYWHERE ever.

Now lets see who should be ashamed.

I donated $500 yesterday and now I'm starting to feel ashamed!

Way to go Elon, $50 million!!

To be fair to myself, I would have donated more but I already feel like I'm getting a TERRIBLE value on medical here in the US. The system is hugely inefficient, expensive, rife with mistakes and broken. And these problems are not due to a lack of money but because of profit motive! And yet, ironically, it is because of this that we need to donate, especially for children whose parents cannot afford it, so I donated. St. Jude is part of that small portion that has nothing to do with profit (except for over-priced supplies, equipment and other things they must spend money on).

 

[SN_8]

I've found this discussion about delivery estimates including all the opposing viewpoints to be very informative. Thanks @Troy for being willing to engage. Iron sharpens iron.

 

[Tyler34]

Analyst consensus for Q3 2021 is currently 221K. It consists of estimates by 11 analysts that range between 204K and 246K. It's a wide range. So, it's not like Q3 deliveries are crystal clear and it's easy to estimate it with a small error.

Hold up, can we talk about that 246k estimate for a moment. I assume thats GoJo so he can claim a miss?

 

[Singuy]

I think you have it backwards. Production fell due to some changeovers and deliveries followed. There were also some errors in shipments for optimum deliveries.

And I disagree that estimating deliveries is the best way to estimate production or that exact production numbers (before Tesla tells us what they are) are even important in the big picture. If it were that important, big funds would form a collective and hire people to count vehicles as they left the two factories. It would be very cheap in the greater scheme of things and the numbers would be much more accurate.

Yes deliveries always lag production. However Tesla is always proactive when it comes to adjusting production according to projected demand/deliveries. They didn't do the change over with canceling Models S 75 and decided to start ramping Sr+ q1 because that q1 had super strong demand. Q1 generally has the least demand to begin with hence they do most of their factory shut downs or introducing new models that q. Plus that q1 was was first tax cliff so they projected weak demand for the q. How bad they messed up the change over or how well they did will be reflected in delivery numbers, hence the best tool we have. A better tool would be to have a drone sit outside of their logistic lot and we count the cars.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Talking to a new owner of a model 3, I guess Vancouver is in full delivery mode with dozens if not 100’s of new Tesla’s leaving the delivery centres everyday.

Interesting to note on auto trader, we are down to

- 3 new Leafs available in the province,
- no Bolts as there is a stop sale order
- 11 Konas
- 143 Mustang Mach E’s.

The Mach E number surprised me. I thought they were all pretty much pre-sold.

cheers.

Mach-E sales also seem to have peaked in The Netherlands. Ford sent over a lot of cars to Europe to avoid paying the EU fines. Because of pent-up demand many of those were sold. But sales now seem to be dropping, as can be seen in the registration numbers:

A few weeks ago my local Ford dealer received a shipment of 25 Mach-E's and they aren't selling a lot of them. The parking lot is virtually unchanged since they arrived:

The reason? One can only guess. But on the Dutch section of TMC member @JanJ had the opportunity to drive a Mach-E for several months (short lease) after his Model 3 got totalled by a driver who ran a red light. He has now ordered a Model Y.

He shared his experience here. Translated from Dutch:

The Mach-E (I have the RWD LR) is without a doubt a fine and beautiful car. Rides nicely and is fast enough for me (in that respect I find VW's and Audi's horribly disappointing). The space in the car is comparable to the MY. The AP functionality in the Ford I find slightly better.

Things that bothered me about the Mach-E after about 4000 km and which made me move back to Tesla:

- The seats really are not comfortable for me. I drive 30,000 km a year and then I want to sit comfortably. They are too wide and have far too little support on the flanks.
- The large screen in the Ford is an abomination in terms of operation. I'm quite adept at mastering new technology, but the person who made the UI for the Mach-E should be carried out with tar and feathers. Android Auto doesn't make it any better and drains my phone even when it's on the charger.
- Fast charging with anything that is not Tesla is a huge hassle with apps and cards. Once you are used to the convenience of the SC, it is difficult to switch. Not that I have to fast-charge often, but I just think it's a huge advantage.
- Charging the Mustang at home is seriously slower than the Tesla. I don't know why, but it won't charge at maximum speed. In any case, there is something wrong with that charging because the plug gets way too hot and when I charge at a street pole, the cooling fan turns ridiculously hard (known problem, car has to go to the dealer to be fixed).
- The obligatory electronic "noises" at low speed in the Ford will irritate very quickly, The reverse beep is horrific. MY sounds are more subtle.
- I have had quite a few near misses with the M3 that the Tesla managed to prevent. The car couldn't prevent the last one, but solved it in such a way that I could still get out in one piece. After the crash (a car running a red light hit my left front wheel at high speed), the Tesla made a few maneuvers that prevented me from hitting a concrete pole, avoiding a guardrail and avoiding driving down a slope (I couldn't see anything because of the airbags ). The Ford maybe also has such a safety system, but in the Tesla it has already proven itself for me.
- If I configure the Mustang the way I want it, it comes to €64000 (for the RWD LR with Technology Pack Plus in white). That's fractionally cheaper than a Tesla Model Y AWD. If you also take the AWD with the Ford, it is even more expensive.
- I assume (but the future will tell) that the Tesla holds its value better than the Ford and therefore my TCO with the Tesla is lower.

 

[22522]

How many people have donated $250 to St. Jude or ANYWHERE ever.

I would expect that every member of this forum has!

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

The AP functionality in the Ford I find slightly better.

Auto Pilot? I thought I heard that it disengages during slight bends on the freeway. Or does AP stand for something else?

 

[Tslynk67]

Hold up, can we talk about that 246k estimate for a moment. I assume thats GoJo so he can claim a miss?

No, that was me...

 

[Tyler34]

No, that was me...

I thought your estimate was 83k? I'm slightly more bullish at 87k

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

 

[Mengy]

View attachment 711413

That's a subtle, yet very deep, answer.

 

[Krugerrand]

I thought your estimate was 83k? I'm slightly more bullish at 87k

The cat is 83,000 and has been so since 83,000 was a thing. I am never disappointed nor over confident on any quarter.

 

[Singuy]

Just came back from Tesla service, they were great. Control arm on the car was replaced under 24h and I got a loaner for the first time.

My mind however got blown by the guy in front of me who came in with his used Model X he purchased 2 weeks ago and complained that the nearby superchargers were full. He wanted the service center to charge his car. The service rep said it'll take a hour because there are two cars being charged. The guy said "I am going to sell this car in 2 weeks because the service has been terrible! You tell me I have to wait a hour?". The rep was like "sorry sir but I have to bring your car in, then there's the charging time".....

I wonder if my wife can go into volkswagen tomorrow and complain about her empty gas tank...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Just came back from Tesla service, they were great. Control arm on the car was replaced under 24h and I got a loaner for the first time.

My mind however got blown by the guy in front of me who came in with his used Model X he purchased 2 weeks ago and complained that the nearby superchargers were full. He wanted the service center to charge his car. The service rep said it'll take a hour because there are two cars being charged. The guy said "I am going to sell this car in 2 weeks because the service has been terrible! You tell me I have to wait a hour?". The rep was like "sorry sir but I have to bring your car in, then there's the charging time".....

I wonder if my wife can go into volkswagen tomorrow and complain about her empty gas tank...

You should have asked him why he can't go charge at home.........(odds are he's a local that is just trying to charge at the superchargers just because)

 

[Singuy]

You should have asked him why he can't go charge at home.........(odds are he's a local that is just trying to charge at the superchargers just because)

Oh I'm not going to interject but I have a feeling he probably couldn't get home on the low state of charge would be my guess.

 

[Unpilot]

The cat is 83,000 and has been so since 83,000 was a thing. I am never disappointed nor over confident on any quarter.

The Dog calculates 83,001.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

To be useful any prediction of production needs to be more accurate than saying Tesla is growing at about 15% per quarter for the next couple of years (75% per year) which is the historic rate averaged over the last 5 quarters. So:

2021 Q3 - 237k
2021 Q4 - 272k
2022 Q1 - 313k
2022 Q2 - 360k
2022 Q3 - 414k
2922 Q4 - 477k

I perpsonally think Tesla will grow a bit faster perhaps 18% per quarter (93% per year) due to the production capacity coming online in Austin and Berlin, further increases in Shanghai and modest further increases in Fremont.

2021 Q3 - 244k
2021 Q4 - 287k
2022 Q1 - 338k
2022 Q2 - 399k
2022 Q3 - 471k
2922 Q4 - 556k

Deliveries can then be estimated as being a couple of percent lower for the first three quaters in the year and then selling built up inventory in the last quater.

The advantages of such models are that they are very simple and give predictions many quarters out. The also even out production shutdowns (for whatever reason) and other short term effects. The only assumptions are really that Tesla will continue to execute as well as they have been doing (or a bit better) and that they will continue to be production constrained.

As a long term investor I am much more interested in the medium term prospects for Tesla. Short term can be influenced by temporary factors such as shutdowns, COVID or recessions. Long term, more than about 5 years, the future becomes too hard to predict, robotaxi, software services, energy, AI, robotics and new business areas could all prove immensly profitable or flop

It will be interesting to see whether @Troy or anyone else can beat my naive estimates (18% increase) and if so how many quarters it takes for them to become more accurate.

 

[Bet TSLA]

To be useful any prediction of production needs to be more accurate than saying Tesla is growing at about 15% per quarter for the next couple of years (75% per year) which is the historic rate averaged over the last 5 quarters. So:

2021 Q3 - 237k
2021 Q4 - 272k
2022 Q1 - 313k
2022 Q2 - 360k
2022 Q3 - 414k
2922 Q4 - 477k

I perpsonally think Tesla will grow a bit faster perhaps 18% per quarter (93% per year) due to the production capacity coming online in Austin and Berlin, further increases in Shanghai and modest further increases in Fremont.

2021 Q3 - 244k
2021 Q4 - 287k
2022 Q1 - 338k
2022 Q2 - 399k
2022 Q3 - 471k
2922 Q4 - 556k

Deliveries can then be estimated as being a couple of percent lower for the first three quaters in the year and then selling built up inventory in the last quater.

The advantages of such models are that they are very simple and give predictions many quarters out. The also even out production shutdowns (for whatever reason) and other short term effects. The only assumptions are really that Tesla will continue to execute as well as they have been doing (or a bit better) and that they will continue to be production constrained.

As a long term investor I am much more interested in the medium term prospects for Tesla. Short term can be influenced by temporary factors such as shutdowns, COVID or recessions. Long term, more than about 5 years, the future becomes too hard to predict, robotaxi, software services, energy, AI, robotics and new business areas could all prove immensly profitable or flop

It will be interesting to see whether @Troy or anyone else can beat my naive estimates (18% increase) and if so how many quarters it takes for them to become more accurate.

I imagine that a good name for this technique would be "last principles thinking". But I guess it's really easy to do.