Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jkirkwood001]

Yes, I'm sure what you say is true. The haters can't wait for that first accident and especially, that first fatality. The thing is, it is going to happen. Next week, next month, next year. There WILL be accidents and fatalities on FSD. Nobody has ever said there wouldn't be. The point is the statistical chance of that happening relative to human driving. The articles are going to come. It is inevitable. We just have to look past it and keep improving the system. Eventually statistics (and probably insurance companies) are going to prove that the technology is safer. Once that happens, people will come around.

There are going to be absolutely awful headlines and a sea of Fear Uncertainty and Doubt in the early days of this rollout. We know the truth. Hell, my EAP has saved me multiple times. Can't imagine what FSD Beta is going to be like. We just have to stay the course and turn a deaf ear and blind eye to all the BS that most certainly will fly.

Dan

I think it will be interesting when any insurance company brings out a policy which discounts for time spent on FSD. In theory, the company should receive a report on whether one is on FSD (or EAP) when an accident occurs, and could adjust the payout accordingly.

Of course Tesla Insurance could do this, but I don't think Tesla insures non-Teslas, so there's no headline for the diff when one uses FSD.

I wanna see the headline / ad that says "If you use FSD, you save 50% (80%?) on your collision insurance".

Nothing would say "FSD is safer" than insurance companies betting their money on it.

 

[Sofie]

Yay! It’s a great day! Buy the dip guys!!!

 

[matejpi]

I don't think the P/D numbers or very good Q3 results will have any say at the stock price for a while. Due to the shitstorm in China, it is a possibility for a long-lasting recession in China (=biggest EV market) and it will affect Tesla via macros. Not that this will change anything regarding the fundamentals of Tesla, but some irrational psychology will be in the play.

I will buy this dip...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, it worked for people who sold aggressive covered calls, lol.

There were 24.7k Put contracts traded at the 700 Strike in the first hour of today's session. Whole lotta hedging goin' on...

Cheers!

 

[JusRelax]

Anyone see the backwards OI graph for October 8th? Is this a possible indicator for a potential breakout that week (I guess, potentially, to either side)?

 

[SO16]

My financial feed is full of articles about TSLA dropping because the head of the NTSB is criticizing Autopilot. One of the articles has quoted her as saying:

"Basic safety issues have to be addressed before they’re then expanding it to other city streets and other areas,” she told The Wall Street Journal. Homendy also expressed concern about how Tesla software is tested on public roadways.

Homendy called Tesla’s use of the term 'Full Self-Driving' “misleading and irresponsible."

To me, the drop looks Macro related and has little to do with Ms. Homendy's comments.

Just call it “not full self driving”. The naysayers would love it and so would the fans.

 

[CLK350]

Both Max-Pain and my experimental "C-P Brkpt" indicator point at $750 right now. BIG Put wall at 700, but also significant convergence of OI around the 750 strike:

View attachment 711768

I'm not concerned even a little about the supposed "Evergrande debt crisis". This story broke last week. Evergrande's total debt is $300B vs China's GDP of $14.6T in 2021. China will outgrow this w/o blinking an eye, even in the worst case scenario (which is very unlikely).

IMO shortzes and hedgies are just using this as an excuse in the Pre-market to try to start a stampede to the exit, trading lots'o chairs amongst themselves. Remember, large Funds don't trade in the Pre-market, this is the bit players.

Cheers!

Re China /Evergrande situation and possible downturn of the Chinese economy: I mentioned China's now quasi official change in a post that was moved to the Off Topics Galore thread (prematurely I think).

My take is that the Evergrande event is actually a plus for Tesla: the Chinese are (have been) cracking down on get rich quick schemes (IPOs, financial gains via the Stock Market aka unhealthy speculation, star influencers who have influence in a quasi circular way, .. ), and preferring instead manufacturers of tangible goods. Trying for more wealth for the middle class vs the already wealthy (Ma etc ). Recalling how Tesla benefits China (and the CCP naturally) by reducing its dependence on their scarce oil & gas or polluting carbon, as well as helping their EV and battery tech, and Xi's warm welcome to Elon at the inception of Giga Shanghai (recall, Tesla China is the only foreign company that is allowed to be 100% owned by foreigners, all others need to have a local participation, typically around 50%) - this is BULLISH for Tesla in China, so for TSLA, regardless of the temporary impact of a global downturn. In other words, Tesla China will have a more prominent place among companies as the financial, building fluff ones are diminished.

[OT] In the crypto field, note that the Chinese are also one step ahead with their Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP).

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't understand why large-scale macro forces that will have virtually no effect on Tesla have such a large effect on its stock, especially given how it's knocking it out of the park right now. It just doesn't make sense.

Are you calling a 4% a "large" move?

Some people think stocks are risky precisely because their value is not precise. It varies from day to day and with the mood of the market. This will not trouble you once you realize valuation is not a precise thing.

When an investor is targeting returns in the range of thousands of percentage points, why should they concern themselves with daily, weekly or monthly fluctuations measured in single digits percentages or even double digit percentages?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Manny Pacquiao is running for President of the Philippines in 2022.

I just thought you should know their 3 largest mineral exports are gold, copper, and nickel. They also have large amounts of lithium rock (not "brine") production thru a Chinese company.

Elon is a Director of the company which owns the UFC:

Elon Musk tapped to join board of Endeavor Group, owner of UFC and Miss Universe contest

Musk is allowed to serve as a director for a public company despite an incident that caused him to step down as Tesla’s chairman in 2018.

www.nbcnews.com

Manny Pacquiao signed up in 2020 for a UFC match.

8:28 BREAKING! UFC Approves Conor McGregor vs Manny ... YouTube · MMA Focus Sep. 26, 2020

Jus' sayin'...

P.S. for Disbelievers: SpaceX launched 2 Phillipino Cube-sats to the ISS on Aug 29, 2021:

PH cube satellites Maya-3, Maya-4 launched

The Maya-3 and Maya-4 follow the launch of the Maya-2 back in February 2021, and the Maya-1 in June 2018

www.rappler.com

P.P.S. Manny Pacquiao is already a Senator in the Philippines:

Boxer-senator Manny Pacquiao to run for Philippine president

Philippine boxing icon and senator Manny Pacquiao says he will run for president in the 2022 elections.

apnews.com

Word.

 

[larmor]

C'mon, Musk and team just launched and landed an all civilian crew into/from space for the 1st time.

Wonder if this suggests that what SpaceX is doing is still considered a novelty compared to other things happening on the planet. Reusable and persistent launches/landings, I guess, are what's going to cause a real change in public perception.

What a bar to work through.

Hold on there, wait till ford and gm send people to orbit and bring them back, may be they can send the union boss.

 

[ZeApelido]

Just drove by Tesla HQ.

Employee parking lot full before 9 am.

Bullish.

 

[elasalle]

Stop putting downwards pressure on the SP!

just sell calls & then the SP will rise ..

Don’t you want a gamma squeeze

 

[FastCompany]

This is so true. Maybe the next industry Elon should disrupt is healthcare.

Tesla does a have foot in the healthcare door via the project their Grohman Engineering arm is doing for CureVac. Haven't heard any updates for a while though.

 

[Tyler34]

Yay! It’s a great day! Buy the dip guys!!!

Ive bought plenty of dip, but there is a chip shortage so I'm not sure what to do with all of it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Would probably mean further downside for TSLA but I wouldn't mind seeing a 4% down day on the macros at the bottom and then a reversal to end the day down 2.5-3% in the macros. Just flush all the worry-warts on Wall St out so this narrative can die for the rest of the year.

 

[ninpb]

Tesla does a have foot in the healthcare door via the project their Grohman Engineering arm is doing for CureVac. Haven't heard any updates for a while though.

View attachment 711904

The more all-in I am with TSLA the more diversified I am.

 

[Scuttlebutt]

Manny Pacquiao is running for President of the Philippines in 2022.

I just thought you should know their 3 largest mineral exports are gold, copper, and nickel. They also have large amounts of lithium rock (not "brine") production thru a Chinese company.

Elon is a Director of the company which owns the UFC:

Elon Musk tapped to join board of Endeavor Group, owner of UFC and Miss Universe contest

Musk is allowed to serve as a director for a public company despite an incident that caused him to step down as Tesla’s chairman in 2018.

www.nbcnews.com

Manny Pacquiao signed up in 2020 for a UFC match.

8:28 BREAKING! UFC Approves Conor McGregor vs Manny ... YouTube · MMA Focus Sep. 26, 2020

Jus' sayin'...

P.S. for Disbelievers: SpaceX launched 2 Phillipino Cube-sats to the ISS on Aug 29, 2021:

PH cube satellites Maya-3, Maya-4 launched

The Maya-3 and Maya-4 follow the launch of the Maya-2 back in February 2021, and the Maya-1 in June 2018

www.rappler.com

Word.

I asked my Filipina wife today about Manny running for President, and she giggled. "Someone is putting him up to it, he is caving to pressure from his buddies and he won't likely win if he runs" (we live nearby Manny's home city and Manny is a hero here, but not considered to be the best candidate to win.)
The Nickel is mainly located on our Island, Mindanao. I hope that an agreement can be reached to mine that Nickel but the area is very ecologically sensitive which does concern me.

 

[Jack6591]

This is a great video. Some things just bear repeating…

 

[abasile]

Disagree. This is being exceptionally careful for this early beta. Eventually, FSD will not care how good or bad a driver you are once it has control.

If Tesla can do a good job of assessing driver safety, that is generally bullish for Tesla Insurance. Even after FSD becomes Level 5, there will be cars without FSD and drivers who sometimes opt to drive manually. Imagine a future driver thinking, "I want to enjoy driving a mountain road; how much will Tesla Insurance charge to put my Model 3 in manual mode for a couple of hours?"

Totally agree that Tesla needs to err on the side of caution for the FSD Beta program!

 

[Krugerrand]

Ive bought plenty of dip, but there is a chip shortage so I'm not sure what to do with all of it.

Veggies