Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[22522]

As an investor forum, it is probably good to make a common language. That is why the Porter stuff, but we need to give PBS and NPR some credit for broadcasting Marketplace Business News & Economic Stories For Everyone

It is educational material about investing delivered in easy conversational packets for the middle class.

They play three different tunes based on stock market motion 1) “We’re in the money by Ginger Rogers” from 1933 Gold Digg 2) “Stormy Weather (by Lena Horn?) and on mixed days “It Don't Mean A Thing If It Ain't Got That Swing”.

If you ask you car for #1) a middle verse is delivered in pig Latin. So there is a chance to learn a new language there.

Again all in a tone of optimism and working together which is appropriate for today’s delivery results and Tesla in general.

 

[Lessmog]

As an investor forum, it is probably good to make a common language. That is why the Porter stuff, but we need to give PBS and NPR some credit for broadcasting Marketplace Business News & Economic Stories For Everyone

It is educational material about investing delivered in easy conversational packets for the middle class.

They play three different tunes based on stock market motion 1) “We’re in the money by Ginger Rogers” from 1933 Gold Digg 2) “Stormy Weather (by Lena Horn?) and on mixed days “It Don't Mean A Thing If It Ain't Got That Swing”.

If you ask you car for #1) a middle verse is delivered in pig Latin. So there is a chance to learn a new language there.

Again all in a tone of optimism and working together which is appropriate for today’s delivery results and Tesla in general.

I don't understand all that, sorry.
Are you speaking Margherita by any chance?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well it's really hard to say on gross margin because we don't know how much of the price hikes in the first half of the year were from cost of goods increase or if Tesla was raising the price in preparation for the EV credit and/or just high demand. I subscribe to the thought process that the price hikes are almost entirely because of high demand/anticipation of the EV credit.

Thus, I think 30% gross margins excluding credits is possible for Q3 and I'm very sure Tesla will hit that number in Q4 because S/X deliveries will go from 10k to 20-25k. That will improve gross margins a ton. Possible to see gross margin excl credits to be around 32-33%

Where Q4 will really shine is operational margin. We'll be near peak operational margin for Fremont and Shanghai since at that point both factoring will be running at all time production rates. Expect operational margin to drop somewhat though in Q1 and Q2 in 2022 because both Berlin and Texas will be ramping and thus, they won't be efficient. But then expect operational margin to explode much higher in Q3/Q4 2022 when both Berlin and Texas hit high production volumes.

To add on to this as well.......Tesla is obviously pushing consumers to the higher trims through their expected delivery times. It's a incredibly strong position to be in and we saw this in action in European registrations. I noted a week or two back.....but the percentage of Model 3's being registered in Europe that are either LR or P trims was probably 75% of the mix this quarter. In prior quarters, LR and P trims were more like 15-20%. I suspect we're seeing the same thing in the US market as well.

So it sounds crazy, but 30% gross margin excluding credits in Q3 could be conservative.

 

[Buckminster]

Factchecking as insightful as ever:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1444354063202766851

 

[jhm]

I'd be ok with that. We're battery constrained. So the cars are expensive because they can be, in a world of constrained production and strong demand (see Teslas wait times) I see no reason to offer a subsidy. A subsidy is nothing more than a tax on future generations and I'm getting old enough to say stop the madness. Our debt fueled binge is ridiculous. Everyone wants govt to give something. Nobody wants to pay.

Teslas's made. It's a done deal. The EV revolution has begun, the private sector can take it from here just fine is my opinion. Some disagree but I feel that over the next 2 years battery production will catch up, cars will get much cheaper, scale is created (Berlin and Austin humming), prices fall. At that time if demand falters than a subsidy may be required. I would hope the Model 2 and competitors would serve to keep options affordable for the majority of citizens. Until supply catches up to demand the subsidy is in effect a tax on the poor. Nothing else and no way to coat. We should not be taxing the poor to fund Tesla and the transition to sustainability.

The value of the EV subsidy is that it keeps the likes of GM and Ford in business making just enough EVs so that they don't have to pay Tesla for the regulatory credits they need to keep building obsolete ICE vehicles.

 

[petit_bateau]

By end of 2022, Nikola's net income could be greater than Ford and GM combined.

Yes, but one is supposed to sell cars, not shares.

 

[Krugerrand]

Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles in the third quarter, topping expectations

Tesla delivered 241,300 electric vehicles during the third quarter of 2021, the company said Saturday.

www.cnbc.com

CNBC actually reported the consensus number correctly........I'm actually surprised. Saw a couple other articles trying to say the consensus was 229k

Also..........." Tesla is also planning to host its annual shareholder meeting at its plant, now under construction, near Austin on October 7. Musk previously threatened to move Tesla’s headquarters out of California in the spring of 2020 when the state’s Covid-related health orders required Tesla’s Fremont factory to temporarily suspend operations for a few weeks.

At the time, California Gov. Gavin Newsom told CNBC he was “not worried about Elon leaving any time soon,” and voiced support for Tesla."

Yeah, you better be worried now Gavin. Tesla changing the location to Austin on the P/D report is a clear sign Elon's leaving soon.

And selling all but one Cali home, and putting a box home at the Austin factory, and stating publicly on his split that he’s spending most of his time in Tx and she’s in L.A. - mmm, he’s pretty much already left the state.

I’m taking bets if he’s on the Q3 ER call or not.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

And selling all but one Cali home, and putting a box home at the Austin factory, and stating publicly on his split that he’s spending most of his time in Tx and she’s in L.A. - mmm, he’s pretty much already left the state.

I’m taking bets if he’s on the Q3 ER call or not.

I should have said "Elon's leaving soon and taking Tesla HQ's with him"

 

[jbcarioca]

The value of the EV subsidy is that it keeps the likes of GM and Ford in business making just enough EVs so that they don't have to pay Tesla for the regulatory credits they need to keep building obsolete ICE vehicles.

Keep in mind that as proposed the hybrids get the subsidy too. It really is not about clean vehicles but about helping GM, Ford and Chrysler (note: not Stelalntis, but Chrysler, Ram, Jeep). They get to see idiotic hybrids and claim credit as if they were helping the environment.

 

[dmvevguy]

I hope Elon is doing ok personally. He seems to not have the best long term relationships. Kinda sad to hear about his break up.

We need him to be in best spirits and good mental health.

 

[FireMedic]

Another important milestone could be Tesla becoming the highest selling luxury car brand in US. Looks like Tesla might beat BMW this year ...

BMW YTD : 243K
Tesla YTD : 240k (Troy estimate)

Tesla YTD is closer to 600k. The Q3 number is 240k.

 

[lascavarian]

Factchecking as insightful as ever:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1444354063202766851

There is another inventory drain to consider. Tesla production may have suffered just a bit as a result of initial stocking of Austin and cutting them into the supply chain.

This “cut in” Q3 production penalty will transform into a production boost once Austin cranks up In Q4 IMO.

 

[replicant]

Tesla YTD is closer to 600k. The Q3 number is 240k.

US only?

 

[22522]

I don't understand all that, sorry.
Are you speaking Margherita by any chance?

I think the Marketplace link will make everything understandable. At one time I was commuting home every day listening to National Public Radio when Marketplace would report on the day’s stock market results from the University of Southern California. They would play one of those 3 songs based on how the day went.

And it formed a standard vocabulary for many on this forum. Today’s delivery results cued up this tune:

 

[Prunesquallor]

I don't understand all that, sorry.
Are you speaking Margherita by any chance?

Hey! That’s my language! Although this week it will be Kalik (Bahamas scuba trip). Will be mostly off the grid.

Keep ‘em honest with earnings, y’all!

 

[Krugerrand]

I should have said "Elon's leaving soon and taking Tesla HQ's with him"

That’s assumed. His main higher up people aren’t going to be primarily stationed in a different state.

 

[Lessmog]

I think the Marketplace link will make everything understandable. At one time I was commuting home every day listening to National Public Radio when Marketplace would report on the day’s stock market results from the University of Southern California. They would play one of those 3 songs based on how the day went.

And it formed a standard vocabulary for many on this forum. Today’s delivery results cued up this tune:

Thanks! Being out of range for trans-globe terrestrial radio I needed that subtitling

 

[hobbes]

Volkswagen today vs. Nokia in 2011 (this feels like much longer ago, highlighting how fast disruption can happen...):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1444209456112410630

 

[GOVA]

I hope Elon is doing ok personally. He seems to not have the best long term relationships. Kinda sad to hear about his break up.

We need him to be in best spirits and good mental health.

I last couple of interviews/conferences Elon looked and spoke better than ever. I don't think his relationships matter to him as much as they used to. He is really a big boy now.

 

[uujjj2]

At heart, Elon is a startup guy not a corporate guy. Tesla has around 20k people in Silicon Valley, and it's just not a startup anymore. It's one of Silicon Valley's big 4 employers (along with Facebook, Google, and Apple). It seems Drew is pretty much running the ship here. Elon is out in Austin basically building out a startup company under the Tesla umbrella, and that's probably a better use of his talents than day-to-day management of a mature organization.