Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

One thing that irritates me about people coming out of the woodwork to give you advice when the stock is high is they are saying "you had your fun and got lucky when it was a small amount, but now that it's big money, you better let me handle it".

I wouldn't say it irritates me, but I tend to trust my own analysis and judgement over people who are bad with money. I mean, my girlfriend isn't terrible with money but she does not save and she spends almost as much as she makes, like most people do today.

Okay, yeah it irritates me a bit.

 

[lafrisbee]

Make sure you get a prenup.

If it gets to a prenup I was not clear.
My idea of a prenup would be a NOWnup..

 

[Artful Dodger]

LFPs are less efficient but have other upsides.

Lol, no they're really are not. LFP's have lower gravimetric energy density than nickel-based chemistries, but 5x the cycle-life and can be charged routinely to 100% w/o damaging the pack.

It's these trade-offs in bty characteristics which make LPF the superior choice for a rental fleet like Hertz is buying.

Horses for courses.

 

[Artful Dodger]

You guys are making me glad I locked in a sensible spouse ~30 years ago.

So... backwoods Oregon then?

 

[Mr X]

Sleeping on the couch is not fun.

My GF just sent me a picture of an Ipace for sale nearby and said she was tempted. She likes my 3 but it's not large enough. So I just had to show her all about the Y and get a test drive setup. Don't judge too much, she's still in orientation.

You're doing it wrong if you're the one sleeping on the couch and your gf/wife are in the bed

 

[Jack6591]

Posted yet???

EXCLUSIVE Fiat Chrysler nears plea deal in U.S. emissions fraud probe - sources

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) is nearing an agreement to plead guilty to criminal conduct to resolve a multiyear emissions fraud probe surrounding Ram pickup trucks and Jeep sport-utility vehicles with diesel engines, people familiar with the matter said.

www.reuters.com

 

[Prunesquallor]

Posted yet???

EXCLUSIVE Fiat Chrysler nears plea deal in U.S. emissions fraud probe - sources

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) is nearing an agreement to plead guilty to criminal conduct to resolve a multiyear emissions fraud probe surrounding Ram pickup trucks and Jeep sport-utility vehicles with diesel engines, people familiar with the matter said.

www.reuters.com

Deisel. The gift that keeps on giving.

 

[Spacep0d]

If it gets to a prenup I was not clear.
My idea of a prenup would be a NOWnup..

Forget the Prenup, just do the NOPE.

I got my girlfriend to buy 164 shares of TSLA (over time, lol) with my 'not advice'. She didn't want to be as aggressive as I was recommending but we found an aggressive position she was comfortable with and BOOM, yesterday happened about a week after her last major buy. She's very happy with me as her 'not advisor' right now.

 

[Unpilot]

What? Another 124T added in a total of 9 years? Um, no. I can be creative as all get out, but I’ll need a few more years to come up with ways to get rid of that much. You need to change your model.

You better hope he is right.

Your gonna a lot for defensive purposes.

 

[Prunesquallor]

GM to Expand EV Charging Station Ecosystem

GM will invest nearly $750 million to build more than 40,000 EV charging stations starting in 2022.

www.thestreet.com

 

[Thekiwi]

good news: seems like the green budget has pretty much remained intact in the proposed heavily reduced spending bill:

Biden plan expected to include at least $500 billion for climate

The funding would be the largest single component of the $2 trillion plan.

www.axios.com

 

[Knightshade]

GM to Expand EV Charging Station Ecosystem

GM will invest nearly $750 million to build more than 40,000 EV charging stations starting in 2022.

www.thestreet.com

40,000 level 2 charging stations.

The automaker has launched a community charging initiative that will install as many as 40,000 Level 2 charging stations across North America. The program will give dealers up to 10 chargers they can place at "key locations" in their neighborhoods, such as apartments, colleges and businesses

Bet a lot of them end up in "key locations" like "the homes of the dealership owners friends and family"

 

[Nocturnal]

GM to Expand EV Charging Station Ecosystem

GM will invest nearly $750 million to build more than 40,000 EV charging stations starting in 2022.

www.thestreet.com

"Free beer, tomorrow only."

These promises are always a few years out. Weird.

 

[jhm]

Congrats to everyone who hasn't been selling off shares lately! I've managed to hold onto all my shares through the day. I feel like master of my own domain.

No selling today. That was not me. Still master of my own domain.

 

[Thekiwi]

I have to say that the battery issue is the one constraint I see on growth for everyone. Tesla may in fact be battery supply constrained until 2025.

Assuming we have the 4 facilities pumping out a max number of vehicles of approximately 4 million vehicles/year it would consume roughly all the battery capacity I can find. Now CATL and the lithium iron battery mix is the gotcha- it is very hard to understand exactly what capacity growth they are planning on. Reports range from 200-400 GWh of capacity by 2027-9. Just lots of uncertainty. What is certain is that CATL, LG, Tesla are the leaders. Panasonic, SK, Samsung, BYD are all projected to be far back. I keep saying it would be fun to have a more exhaustive TMC led effort on battery plant capacity, chemistries, etc . Right now, this is really the constraint on EV transition.

As soon as Tesla in-house 4680s production method is perfected to acceptable levels (possible any week now) tesla’s Battery constraint problem is a short term issue. The constraint is overcome by simply massively building out its own cell factories. Access to raw materials is a question of money. Yes there isn’t quite enough to go around to everyone who wants it, so whoever pays the most gets it, and tesla is the best positioned to do that. Can see tesla “pulling an Apple” and simply making very large, very long purchase contracts with raw material suppliers, if they haven’t done so already.

exit to add: Tesla increased its planned Capex spending for the next two years, according to the 10-Q which was released this week.

 

[elasalle]

GM to Expand EV Charging Station Ecosystem

GM will invest nearly $750 million to build more than 40,000 EV charging stations starting in 2022.

www.thestreet.com

charging infrastructure rebates for Union made chargers only

 

[BitJam]

Lol, no they're really are not [less efficient]. LFP's have lower gravimetric energy density than nickel-based chemistries, but 5x the cycle-life and can be charged routinely to 100% w/o damaging the pack.

Lower gravimetric energy density is exactly what people mean when they say LFP batteries are less efficient. It's all about the KWh/kg. This is why Tesla uses LFPs in their standard range vehicles but not the long range or performance. And it's why other US manufactures don't use LFPs in EVs. Their cars are already less efficient (motors and drag) so it's hard for them to use the less efficient LFP batteries and maintain non-terrible range and performance.

Likewise, people commonly say the new tabless 4680 batteries are more efficient and they say more efficient batteries are needed for the Cybertruck and the Semi to meet their specs. This is a sensible and convenient nomenclature. It's less precise but it's easier for non-technical people to grasp the meaning.

It's these trade-offs in bty characteristics which make LPF the superior choice for a rental fleet like Hertz is buying.

I fully agree! I've been saying that car rental companies were probably waiting for an LFP based car that could be produced at scale before making a large EV purchase. I also said converting the standard range Model Y to LFP was another genius move by Elon.

 

[willow_hiller]

Small aside, is this the first we've seen of the assembly line at Giga New York?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453051156595306497

Looks like it's assembling Solar Roof tiles, in-between the primary task of ringing a cowbell.

 

[Vines]

No selling today. That was not me. Still master of my own domain.

No selling shares here either. The company I work for sells and installs Powerwalls however.

We have been pushing and executing all through Covid, and our team has sold and installed megawatts worth of Powerwalls in the last couple of years.

My first stock buy was after I bought my M3P, 3 years and 86k miles ago. I bought in at about $230 pre-split, this was the first time I had ever saved up a large chunk of cash to invest in anything.

At first, I traded a lot on the volatility. I made some money but not as much as I could have.

Through the good advice from the posts here after about a year, I stopped with the trading every week and I have held my position through this rise over the last 15 months. It is now 10x and is real money now, enough to close the gap on my early retirement. The plan is to sell about 20-30%, of the TSLA, and make much-needed house repairs; we need a new roof.

I am trying to time that sell for the best price over the next 6 months, and will be looking for more good news to give it another nice bump. Thanks everyone!

 

[22522]

Lower gravimetric energy density is exactly what people mean when they say LFP batteries are less efficient. It's all about the KWh/kg. This is why Tesla uses LFPs in their standard range vehicles but not the long range or performance. And it's why other US manufactures don't use LFPs in EVs. Their cars are already less efficient (motors and drag) so it's hard for them to use the less efficient LFP batteries and maintain non-terrible range and performance.

Likewise, people commonly say the new tabless 4680 batteries are more efficient and they say more efficient batteries are needed for the Cybertruck and the Semi to meet their specs. This is a sensible and convenient nomenclature. It's less precise but it's easier for non-technical people to grasp the meaning.

I fully agree! I've been saying that car rental companies were probably waiting for an LFP based car that could be produced at scale before making a large EV purchase. I also said converting the standard range Model Y to LFP was another genius move by Elon.

I agree that weight is bad, although Ford once advertised road-hugging-weight.
Hear is a Sandia paper that shows round trip efficiency for LFP and NCA chemistries and to a first order should be rightish:

https://www.sandia.gov/ess-ssl/docs/pr_conferences/2016/Monday_Presentations/27_Daiwon_Choi.pdf

Summary: LFP starts out more efficient but that efficiency degrades a little faster. I expect there have been improvements.