Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Stone_Watcher]

Small aside, is this the first we've seen of the assembly line at Giga New York?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453051156595306497

Looks like it's assembling Solar Roof tiles, in-between the primary task of ringing a cowbell.

Every “x” tasks, ring the cowbell. I wonder what kind of run rate they are aiming for.

For now the cowbell is celebrated. One day it will be dismantled due to shocking disturbances to productivity

 

[BitJam]

As soon as Tesla in-house 4680s production method is perfected to acceptable levels (possible any week now) tesla’s Battery constraint problem is a short term issue.

In the Q2 earnings call they said 4680 production isn't expected to be ramped up until the end of 2022. They said this may cause them to use 2170 batteries as a fallback for the first batches of Model Ys made in Austin (and maybe Berlin). IMO Tesla, and especially other EV makers, are going to be battery constrained for years to come. Once Tesla has enough batteries for their cars, they will need more for the Cybertruck and the Semi. Then they will need more for their energy storage products. This is why Elon told battery manufacturers that he will buy all they batteries they can produce.

One reason this is so challenging is because Tesla is trying to ramp up production exponentially so their need for batteries also grows exponentially.

 

[FireMedic]

Which one of you did this? Jealous isn’t the word…ok, maybe it’s is.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453080022189809665

 

[bkp_duke]

good news: seems like the green budget has pretty much remained intact in the proposed heavily reduced spending bill:

Biden plan expected to include at least $500 billion for climate

The funding would be the largest single component of the $2 trillion plan.

www.axios.com

Be nice if that $4500 incentive crap for union labor got a haircut.

 

[Ogre]

In the Q2 earnings call they said 4680 production isn't expected to be ramped up until the end of 2022. They said this may cause them to use 2170 batteries as a fallback for the first batches of Model Ys made in Austin (and maybe Berlin). IMO Tesla, and especially other EV makers, are going to be battery constrained for years to come. Once Tesla has enough batteries for their cars, they will need more for the Cybertruck and the Semi. Then they will need more for their energy storage products. This is why Elon told battery manufacturers that he will buy all they batteries they can produce.

One reason this is so challenging is because Tesla is trying to ramp up production exponentially so their need for batteries also grows exponentially.

Since then they’ve said that they will be able to produce 10 GW of 4680 cells in Fremont which will be enough to manufacture the new Model Ys coming out of Texas.

The 100 Giga watt hour production coming out of Tera Texas will be online by year end 2022.

 

[RobDickinson]

In the Q2 earnings call they said 4680 production isn't expected to be ramped up until the end of 2022. They said this may cause them to use 2170 batteries as a fallback for the first batches of Model Ys made in Austin (and maybe Berlin). IMO Tesla, and especially other EV makers, are going to be battery constrained for years to come. Once Tesla has enough batteries for their cars, they will need more for the Cybertruck and the Semi. Then they will need more for their energy storage products. This is why Elon told battery manufacturers that he will buy all they batteries they can produce.

One reason this is so challenging is because Tesla is trying to ramp up production exponentially so their need for batteries also grows exponentially.

On the shareholder meeting they said a 50/50 on having 100GWh (annual rate) of their own production by the end of next year.

They just have to match Berlin and Austin production ramps.

Kato road can do 10GWh which is enough for 120,000-140,000 cars and thats not counting any stockpile etc.

So stockpile+Kato production may see them through to a point where the local 4680s come online and take up slack, or may not.

 

[BitJam]

I agree that weight is bad, although Ford once advertised road-hugging-weight.
Hear is a Sandia paper that shows round trip efficiency for LFP and NCA chemistries and to a first order should be rightish

That paper is talking about charging efficiency for grid storage. Nothing really to do directly with EVs. They say the Round Trip Efficiency is calculated by "dividing the sum of all discharge energy by the sum of all charge energy."

Yes, I admit the term battery efficiency is overloaded and overused. But so is the term battery density which can refer to either KWh/weight or to KWh/volume. Since this is the second complaint about me using the word efficiency to refer to KWh/kg I will consider using the more pedantic expression gravimetric energy density. That should clear things up.

 

[TesLeif]

Too much work for the soon to be "ex-girlfriend"

Greetings everyone.

I'm a long-time lurker, first-time poster. Thanks for the steady stream of rational, calming posts throughout the last 5 years+ of $TSLA ownership. I've held through virtually all of it, fought FUD hard on Twitter, owned a 3 LR since 2018 (Y LR coming early 2022), avoided the big COVID plunge and came back in stronger than ever after the bounce, bought 3 sub-600 dips this year; I could retire now at 44, but will hang in for a couple/few more years... will continue to HODL. Cheers to the believers.

Here's the perfect girlfriend meme for the occasion:

 

[PeterJA]

I appreciate the advice. I spent 25 years as a money manager and a broker. I know all the different strategies that can be deployed. Personally I've always been a risk taker. In my older years I have adopted what I call the "barbell approach". I have 40% in TSLA, 40% in cash and 20% in 3 Ark Funds. I.e., I take a lot risk with about 1/2 of my assets, no risk at all with a similar amount and the rest in assets that I trust other people to manage (CW) The problem with investing in "high quality" dividend paying companies is the predictability of the fundamentals of the individual companies. These are the companies that Cathie Wood believes will get annihilated by the disruption thats going on. To me it's not worth the risk for the 2 or 3%. The cash that I have will last me as long as I live. I feel pretty much set with this approach. No sleepless nights. Thanks and the best of good fortune to you.

40% in risky (TSLA) and 40% in no-risk (cash) seems like a reasonable strategy. But I think you have the labels backwards.

Experts are arguing about whether inflation will be high and persistent, but most agree it will not be zero. Your cash is guaranteed to lose value over time. The only question is how fast. Therefore, cash is not "no-risk," which is why Master of Coin and others have put some in Bitcoin.

In contrast, I say TSLA is guaranteed to gain value over time (longterm), unless civilization collapses. Tesla has too many strengths, too few competitors, too enormous and numerous addressable markets to be stopped from becoming the greatest industrial giant the world has ever seen. If you don't agree, you don't understand the company, IMO. As I have opined before, usually an investment offers safety OR huge potential, but TSLA offers both.

 

[MC3OZ]

They said this may cause them to use 2170 batteries as a fallback for the first batches of Model Ys made in Austin (and maybe Berlin).

My impression is slightly different, 2170 batteries are a definite fall back for Berlin...

Austin 4680 production is initially using (8?) small DBE rollers rather than 1 large roller...
So the 4680 DBE process at Austin is initially probably a straight copy of the pilot line,, and probably limited to 10 GWh.
An additional fallback option for Austin is taking cells from the Fremont pilot line...

My impression is the pilot line is running fine, but the Roadrunner line has a single large roller and that isn't working that well...
They may want to get the large roller working before adding too many lines at Austin and installing 4680 production at Berlin..

I speculated on the mix of cell chemistries at Austin and the resulting mix of vehicles here:- 4680 cell design, chassis integration & factory discussion for investors
I think we should adjourn the debate to that thread...

 

[22522]

That paper is talking about charging efficiency for grid storage. Nothing really to do directly with EVs. They say the Round Trip Efficiency is calculated by "dividing the sum of all discharge energy by the sum of all charge energy."

Yes, I admit the term battery efficiency is overloaded and overused. But so is the term battery density which can refer to either KWh/weight or to KWh/volume. Since this is the second complaint about me using the word efficiency to refer to KWh/kg I will consider using the more pedantic expression gravimetric energy density. That should clear things up.

Thank you. Yes, some people say "specific energy density" instead of "gravimetric energy density", so if I am to understand a chart solves, as the units are right there on it.

Generally NCA has more energy per size and more energy per weight than LFP. Tesla designed the volume of the battery space to serve the rental market with LFP batteries. Like an X86SX computer chip.

I think we all agree, LFP will not make "the best car" from a performance perspective, unless you ascribe to Ford marketing slogans.

 

[MC3OZ]

Experts are arguing about whether inflation will be high and persistent, but most agree it will not be zero.

Short term inflation is just the difficulty in kick starting supply chains after covid... and some demand overhang from covid...

Longer term most of the technology driven disruptions in energy, transport and food are suggesting deflation, and stock prices for disrupted companies should be subject to healthy deflation.

I think it is hard to believe in disruption and inflation, because disruption imples deflation, my belief in disruption is stronger than any concerns about the growth of the money supply.

The problem is identifying a good alternative investment to Tesla, keeping mind you want to be on the right side of disruption....

 

[MC3OZ]

I think we all agree, LFP will not make "the best car" from a performance perspective, unless you ascribe to Ford marketing slogans.

Yes, but we need to compare a Model 3 with LFP to an ICE car around the same size, keeping in mind the ICE has a useful life of a rental car of 3 years, and I think the Model 3 has a life of more like 10 years..

Hertz should be able to rent the Model 3 for around the same price as the ICE.

 

[generalenthu]

We had almost two weeks worth of volume in 2 days. Hope Elon was able to get some tax season selling done, no signs of it so far, though I think he has 3 days to report if he did.

 

[RobDickinson]

Jaguar unveils electric Range Rover, but will pay Tesla for carbon credits

Jaguar Land Rover announces first all-electric Range Rover, but will still have to pay Tesla for carbon emissions credits in the short term.

thedriven.io

So JLR joining Tesla's EV credit pool in Europe is confirmed.

Wont be big money but every little helps..

 

[UncaNed]

Small aside, is this the first we've seen of the assembly line at Giga New York?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1453051156595306497

Looks like it's assembling Solar Roof tiles, in-between the primary task of ringing a cowbell.

No wonder the solar company needed rescuing.

 

[Ogre]

… and stock prices for disrupted companies should be subject to healthy deflation.

Just think of how excited people will be when they realize they can get Ford (F) or GM (GM) shares for a fraction of the cost it sold for just a few years ago. The miracles of modern technology enable this sort of efficiency.

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobDickinson]

Not a fan of these 'group' sales charts but considering all the other manufacturers are 100% focused on Europe and Tesla isnt and still doesnt have local production this isnt bad.

Strange Troy has Tesla down for 46k for Europe in Q3 ? Ah that graph doesnt include UK.

 

[Ogre]

Umm… wow.

Giga Berlin will likely produce 60k cars in just Q4 2022. By 2023, annual rate of 250k+. Wonder where the rest of these players will be?