Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jbcarioca]

...because it is SO obvious when autumn begins in Rio....

Be cool, it actually is, my solar panel efficiency begins to drop noticeably and fewer seriously underdressed people populate the beaches.

True, it is obvious. Still does not explain my brain fade. My spouse laughed loudly because today ti is a trifle chilly to use our pool.

Still it isn't Alaska and BEV efficiency does not suffer irreparably range loss. Waiting for my Tesla to prove that point.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

But that's the old chicken or egg question. If those places are vast and empty, does anyone ever really go there? I think the answer is "no". Charging networks just need to be 2 hours from your destination (cabin, home etc.) to make EVs work. You just need enough juice to leave civilization and make it to your home to charge.

We don't have coverage in North Dakota either, but nobody goes there so it's not a big problem.

I would argue that they do indeed need superchargers in the Australian interior. The difference between that and not having supercharges in North Dakota is that in the US you can divert 100 miles or so south and still have a well populated transcontinental supply of superchargers. In Australia they do not. They simply can not get from one side of their country to the other. An interior route North-South and East-West I think would be critical to illustrating to the general public the viability of Tesla and its superchargers.

That all being said, I do not live there so perhaps I am putting words in their mouths. If that is the case, by all means, please correct me.

Dan

 

[Remus]

Tesla says Chinese startup Xpeng stole Autopilot source code through former employee (Electrek)

Alternate link (Reuters)

Seems that this happens quite a bit...

There have been two former Apple employees arrested by FBI for stealing self-driving related property from Apple. All two of them are arrest on their way to China to join Xpeng.

 

[anthonyj]

Have you seen this thread? How To: Automate Preheating/Cooling, Google Play Music (or others) starting automatically, etc!

Damn, Android only :/ following the thread for developments

 

[azaz]

the Model S steering wheel in that update render looks a lot like the Semi's steering wheel.

 

[Nocturnal]

I would argue that they do indeed need superchargers in the Australian interior. The difference between that and not having supercharges in North Dakota is that in the US you can divert 100 miles or so south and still have a well populated transcontinental supply of superchargers. In Australia they do not. They simply can not get from one side of their country to the other. An interior route North-South and East-West I think would be critical to illustrating to the general public the viability of Tesla and its superchargers.

That all being said, I do not live there so perhaps I am putting words in their mouths. If that is the case, by all means, please correct me.

Dan

I was thinking a string along whatever major route goes through the middle. Maybe I'm wrong, but the way I see SC infrastructure is that you have chargers every 150 miles along the main route, and that gives you about 2 hours of range north or south of that route to get people to their destination.

 

[Remus]

Actually, many of them will. They'll have 110V 15 amp.

People who buy cheap cars are often renters *in houses* or in *one-story* apartment buildings -- living in sprawlsville. Most of these have outdoor 110 outlets, and I know people who've thrown extension cords out the window.

You're right that there's another group who don't have parking spaces next to their apartments.

This is the exactly the reason I argue that Tesla can't do this alone. We need many many EVs on the road to stimulate investment on charging infrastructure. When half of the residential parking spaces have chargers, the EV market truely becomes the car market.

 

[replicant]

This would be a good update. One of my (many) favorite things about driving my wife’s Model 3 is I don’t have to lean forward to reach the screen. It’s a small thing but makes a big difference.

What could Tesla do with a Model S refresh that makes it attractive but requires the least rework?

A few ideas of mine (NB: I never owned a car, let alone a Tesla)

Easiest and most expected features
- horizontal, floating, bezel-less screen
- smaller, embedded instrument cluster
- single vent air conditioning
- better center console
- door storage
- bigger glove box (with remote controlled opening)
- higher quality material (no more fingerprint-collecting piano black deco)

Things that might be harder but welcomed
- more comfortable seats and steering wheel
- nicer interior lightning
- better sound system
- self closing doors
- adjustable head restraints for rear seats
- power frunk liftgate

Impossible but desired?
- more backseat headroom and higher seating position
- shorter and lower hood for better view of the road (also lower dashboard, thanks to a smaller IC)
- thinner pillars

Unlikely but possible
- 120 KWh battery pack with 2170 cells (Elon said multiple times they wouldn't offer more than 100 Kwh but who knows)
- OLED screen for true night mode
- HUD (replacing the IC and with night vision?)
- auto-orientable screen (if no passenger, turn floating screen toward driver)
- 360° view of car surrounding (instead of the rear camera)
- electrochromic mirrors
- chrome delete option (cf. Model Y)

 

[2virgule5]

I remember in conference call hearing Musk speak about decreasing times that cars take from order to delivery. I have experienced this first hand. I ordered model3 and in 2 days had delivery scheduled for 6 days from order date. I assumed car was one that was refused or financing fell through but no they actually tracked it for me and was in transit to arrive day or 2 before delivery. Only one data point and fully optioned but given my experience with 5 previous tesla cars- shocking

Same happened last November when I ordered my PM3, literally got it delivered 4 days after ordering so obviously they had inventory (or already plenty of in transit cars).

Closer to now, anecdotal data point follow-up on my Monday night order of an LR-RWD (white, black interior, 18'): received VIN by text the following day -(a very high number 313XXX that tops Bloomberg VINs) but no delivery date yet ... Will check when it was manufactured but would not be surprised if in 'March'.

(funny enough you click the link in the SMS to finish entering delivery info and you get error 504 page not found; also VIN not yet visible on my account either way so yeah, Tesla & communication & software )

 

[luca]

There have been two former Apple employees arrested by FBI for stealing self-driving related property from Apple. All two of them are arrest on their way to China to join Xpeng.

Great
that means all Chinese Automakers will have those source code in half year

 

[AndyH]

Or you can support Fully Charged. They're informative, well-meaning, forward thinking and funny. I wish they were more popular than the stupid petrolheads, but in a world where making a quick buck is all that matters, it's no surprise the most advertised and broadcasted TV shows are a promoter of fossil fuels.

Yes, they need more support! Already got mine. Nice that they're doing it live in Texas as well in September. Hopefully Tesla's moronic problems in Texas are solved before then!

 

[2virgule5]

Yeah sorry, English is my third language

It's ok, 'thoughtful' appears to be your first one

 

[M3Rider]

I'm glad that they didn't raise the SR+ price too much. 37,500 is the sweet spot, considering people may buy options, including the high margin Autopilot options. It's a no brainer to get this over the base 35k. The ASP and margins on the SR+ with options should be pretty good, and will likely be the bread and butter for Tesla.

Checked this morning and Y prices were the same. Checked now and my AWD is $2.5k more.
Unless prices change again, I will consider this my early adopter discount

Another thing I'm wondering-
Seems 3 AWD went up $1.5k, but Y AWD $2.5k.
Can this be a sign that they are seeing too many Y orders and try to anti-sell?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

It's ok, 'thoughtful' appears to be your first one

I don't get it

 

[Mobius484]

I keep my car in my driveway. I wish there was a way to auto preheat at a certain time. I don’t think the SR will catch on in the northeast, especially with no AWD. Thankfully NJ has pretty high income and we don’t have sales tax on EVs, so LR is still a steal. Still seeing a ton more S/X rather than 3s in my area. Would be great to have a MR AWD version

OT-
FWIW:I park outside in north Idaho. If you time your charge to end before you plan on using it in the am, and preheat, it helps warm the packs and use less power to heat pack while off shore power. If you drive longer than about 15 minutes, the consumption drops to near normal levels dispite ambient temperature.... I believe DaveT has a great cold weather post/blog that helped me. I wish they would make setting the charge start time easier to Automatically end charge near morning start time based on how much charge u need... maybe someone who’s twitter buddies with Elon like @SPadival can tweet him tand make this change....

In-Post Mod Edit:
"...while off shore power..." is ambiguous. Do you mean "...while ON shore power..." (unambiguous) or "...while not connected to shore power"? Funny language, English.

 

[Curt Renz]

Barron's - this morning: Tesla, GM, and Lear Look Like Good Bets on the Future of Transportation

 

[2virgule5]

I don't get it

Meant as a compliment as I humbly enjoy reading your thoughts (among many others here). But hey, what do I know, English is not my first language either

 

[Doggydogworld]

This is a bizarrely pessimistic estimate; you assume accounts payable drops by 3400...

No, I didn't assume AP dropped at all. Forget GAAP accruals for a minute, I'm just looking at the checkbook. They had 3400m of AP on 12/31 with net 60 terms, so they wrote 3400m of checks to suppliers in Jan/Feb. New supplies received in Jan/Feb aren't part of this calculation.

...and accounts receivable drops by 500,

I showed AR on a net basis in this summary, but my full estimate includes all 949 of AR as an inflow but docks North American and overseas car sales by one week's worth of late February sales, since they seem to get paid about one week after delivery on average. I probably should have just shown the expanded version of inflows.

...wait, I see that you're trying to model the "peak cars on ships" moment, when most of the cash is tied up in inventory on ships.

Yes, basically. Tesla's cash expenses are pretty linear, but their cash receipts vary wildly during quarter. They have to manage this pretty carefully some quarters. Like this one.

I don't know why they waited until after passing through the pinch point to expand the ABL. Maybe they didn't want to be accused of borrowing from Peter (ABL) to pay Paul (convertible bonds).​

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I miss Jon Stewart... Especially the time when he tore Jim Cramer a new one almost daily

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EDIT: First one is a must watch as Jon Stewart plays segment of the Cramer tape and roasts Cramer on live TV - Watch 2:00 mins into the video.

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The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

Nice, Maye Musk retweeted this. Should get a bunch of views now.

 

[ZeApelido]

Just bought 186 shares and now have 536 total across regular / IRA / Roth accounts. Please tell me I'm smart and this is not going to blow up in my face.