Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[inconel]

I looked away for 2 mins and the SP dropped over $10. MMs really want to set the tone early.

Please stay focused for the rest of the day, don't look away again!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Hey all.....Will $TSLA close today closer to $1200 or $1250....asking for a friend in anticipation of 'rage buying'....TIA.

 

[transpondster]

I know this is subjective - but there are quite some things you can't get in Teslas today that people value:
- active matrix headlights
- heads-up display
- TACC with LaneAssist >150kmh
- premium Seats (ventilated, length adjustable, side-wall adjustable etc..)
- more color choices than my hand has fingers

The seat part is the one that bugs me personally - so if German SuC open up I might consider an Audi myself - selling my Tesla but not my TSLA

Unless you planing on getting etron GT driving above 150 km/h gives little benefit with EVs and with Q4 probably would be slower if you need top up.
More color choices and active headlights are probably coming in future

 

[2daMoon]

Call that a mid morning dip

That is some MM artist making another one of those signature Tesla "T" designs in the ticker chart.

Pretty good work!

 

[30seconds]

This is simply not true.

There's no regulatory limits on this in the US and AP is still limited to 90 mph (roughly 145 kmh)-- and on vision-only cars the limit is even lower (again not due to regulation at all).

This is a limit of the system- not regulation.

And where besides Germany is this even useful?

 

[Maarten]

Lovely video about buying a Tesla Model 3 for ones mother.
Want to convince your mother? Show her this video.

 

[Singuy]

Peter Rawlinson wants to let you know that Tesla's 4680's aren't a big deal.

Lucid CEO: Tesla's 4680 Batteries Aren't A Huge Breakthrough

Tesla bets on a new 4680-type cylindrical cell format, but according to Lucid's CEO/CTO Peter Rawlinson, it will not be "this huge breakthrough."

insideevs.com

They are using the 2170s today, a design from Panasonic and Tesla. So Tesla should ban them from using 4680s, it's only fair that it's a useless technology.

 

[elasalle]

Peter Rawlinson wants to let you know that Tesla's 4680's aren't a big deal.

Lucid CEO: Tesla's 4680 Batteries Aren't A Huge Breakthrough

Tesla bets on a new 4680-type cylindrical cell format, but according to Lucid's CEO/CTO Peter Rawlinson, it will not be "this huge breakthrough."

insideevs.com

a million+ EV's on the road vs 1/2 dozen EV's fresh off the oven ...

man whose experience/expertise should I trust and believe in giving the overall impacts not jsut on the battery, but on the EV car as a whole I'm in a dilemma.

 

[Gigapress]

@Gigapress, you numbers don't lie, however calculating based on driving one million miles is not realistic. Personally I plan to keep my Model 3 for 30 years and average 12,000 km per year (total 360,000 km) increasing my cost basis X3 as someone who drives one million miles on their Tesla. Also, although 12,000 km per year is average for driving annually, most owners will trade their Tesla in for a newer model after three, five or ten years, thereby again increasing the cost bases by several X times. Agree Tesla's proposition is much more efficient than ICE, just not quite as high based on real conditions for most all owners.

This is true but consider that the lifetime value of the vehicle is reflected in the used resale value. So even if you don't want it anymore, if the powertrain and everything is still essentially good as new then the depreciation costs plus operating costs over your ownership time will have added up to approximately the $0.08/mile estimate.

Also, only the depreciation cost really depended that much on vehicle lifetime. The energy, insurance, tires/maintenance, and refurbishment costs would scale down in proportion of the vehicle were scrapped after 500k miles. So at worst the estimate rises to maybe $0.10/mi instead of $0.08

Additionally, this cost structure and longevity makes the Tesla LFP vehicle especially attractive for fleet purchases and as the robotaxi platform. So anyone looking for rental cars, delivery cars, or others who plan to drive 30,000 miles per year or more will find this irresistible. Also, with the cost of driving being so much lower than today's cost, I'd expect the amount of driving to increase due to the law of demand.

People will start to think of cars like houses: Assets that last 3-5 decades with occasional remodeling if desired, that may have 5 different owners in that time.

 

[JRP3]

This is simply not true.

There's no regulatory limits on this in the US

He's not in the US.

 

[elasalle]

volume trending lower again.
Linear downward slope since 11/1 - where them traders @ ? SP holding well though

 

[Knightshade]

He's not in the US.

Why would that matter?

It's not higher where there's no regulation at all- so his claim it's limited to that max due to regulation is not accurate. Not in, or out of, the US. It's a limitation of the system applied by Tesla- not by regulators.


In fact it's actually slightly higher where he is than it is in the US (probably due to Tesla not wanting weird non-round numbers like 144.5 in the owners manual)

 

[jerry33]

@Gigapress, you numbers don't lie, however calculating based on driving one million miles is not realistic. Personally I plan to keep my Model 3 for 30 years and average 12,000 km per year (total 360,000 km) increasing my cost basis X3 as someone who drives one million miles on their Tesla. Also, although 12,000 km per year is average for driving annually, most owners will trade their Tesla in for a newer model after three, five or ten years, thereby again increasing the cost bases by several X times. Agree Tesla's proposition is much more efficient than ICE, just not quite as high based on real conditions for most all owners.

While true, it does mean there will be significant value in a used Tesla, and they will last much longer as a decent vehicle than a legacy car. So use 1M miles as a realistic number for the life of the car is correct--even though it won't likely be the same owner.

 

[jerry33]

But not a cat...because cats are mean and will claw up the interior.

But they keep the rodents out of the wiring.

 

[jerry33]

And where besides Germany is this even useful?

Umm, Texas

 

[Paracelsus]

Hey all.....Will $TSLA close today closer to $1200 or $1250....asking for a friend in anticipation of 'rage buying'....TIA.

I worked through the evening trying to solve for the MMs gamma squeeze-capping algorithm they were forced to default to a couple weeks ago. It was more elusive than I had imagined given the stock price dips used to wipe out trailing stops and the swings used to smash option walls. I must admit, when I found the solution I was really hoping for something more complicated than:

Y = mx + b

Hope this is helpful (/s)

Note to StrongGuy and his favorite analyst - please note this is sarcasm and not meant to be used to explain future stock moves

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I worked through the evening trying to solve for the MMs gamma squeeze-capping algorithm they were forced to default to a couple weeks ago. It was more elusive than I had imagined given the stock price dips used to wipe out trailing stops and the swings used to smash option walls. I must admit, when I found the solution I was really hoping for something more complicated than:

Y = mx + b

View attachment 729582

Hope this is helpful (/s)

Note to StrongGuy and his favorite analyst - please note this is sarcasm and not meant to be used to solve future stock moves

So Model Y = Model X + Model B (future Model Q)....That is what i understood from your post....thanks!

 

[mrmage]

I am paying my margin gradually to get ready in case of a new dip like we had in the $570s where I added some extra. Slowly paying margin by selling puts weekly and staying me motivated to take calls at work and still find motivation to work 24hours straight.

I wonder what was your plan with your margin if there was a 30% pullback, do you add more on margin? Or you stay leveraged the same for the next decade?

I’m pretty conservative so I keep my margin usage well below what’s available, no more than 50%. Also, >50% of my portfolio is calls or spreads, many DITM, that do not contribute to my margin. After the run up, the margin usage is down to 4% of portfolio value.

I’ve learned a few things wrt Tesla (1) never short anything, (2) always remain vested in whatever was in, and (3) learn to love volatility. These so called “once in a lifetime” SP-shooting-up-like-bat-out-of-hell and steep drops seem to happen yearly.

My strategy on pullbacks is to leverage up by converting stocks or conservative spreads/calls into higher strike calls or spreads, or using margin to buy more.

When SP goes up, I mostly deleverage organically (eg close spreads that are nearly maxed out, exercise DITM calls, close near expiration). Naturally I’ll convert profits back to stock or conservative spreads as per rule #2, so I’ll continue to profit at least as fast as SP gains if SP keeps going up because of rule #1.

I’ve also been using my margin account to pay taxes.

 

[StealthP3D]

Finally got my email today after waiting so patiently. Installing 2021.36.5.3 (FSD Beta 10.3.1) as we speak.

I am acutely aware of how much in my own hands the value of my TSLA portfolio is when I will be driving on FSD Beta. I promise I will not do anything that jeopardizes my net worth or anyone else's.

I'm glad you're being careful but mostly for your own family's safety. But accidents happen all the time with or without FSD and the effect of a FSD accident would be so fleeting to a long-term buy/holder it wouldn't even be significant.

If the FSD safety record continues to be perfect for too long, an accident might actually highlight just how safe the beta testing has been! Sure, TSLAQ would jump all over the first FSD accident and say how reckless Tesla is being. But if Tesla can show that the rate of accidents per mile under FSD beta is half that of Tesla owners that don't have FSD and 1/10th (or whatever) that of the average motorist on the road, then they can quantify how many accidents the testing of FSD beta has already prevented. Anyone looking to roast Tesla over this would start looking pretty silly.

 

[Bet TSLA]

far more important everyday features

That's a delicate way of saying "fart mode", amirite?