Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[OrthoSurg]

If rates went vertical it would affect TSLA and all growth stock prices, however, because of Tesla's solid balance sheet and great cash flow, it wont effect Tesla the company in any meaningful way. I am not worried about TSLA stock because I understand Tesla the company and will keep adding and holding as I have since 2015.

Do we have historical numbers on how each tranch of 0,25% rising rates is negatively affecting discount rate on growth stocks and by how much it makes the stock go down?

 

[OrthoSurg]

For the amount of margin you seem to be using, you should be able to negotiate around 2%.

Personally, I make no attempt to pay off my margin. As long as my investment grows faster than the margin rate, I'm better off leaving it in TSLA.

I am paying my margin gradually to get ready in case of a new dip like we had in the $570s where I added some extra. Slowly paying margin by selling puts weekly and staying me motivated to take calls at work and still find motivation to work 24hours straight.

I wonder what was your plan with your margin if there was a 30% pullback, do you add more on margin? Or you stay leveraged the same for the next decade?

 

[elasalle]

Fred alert

Tesla confirms acquisition of battery startup in new patent

Tesla confirmed that it quietly acquired Colorado-based battery startup SiILion, Inc., in a new patent for a silicon-based battery anode....

electrek.co

 

[jerry33]

Come on - this is not the best non Tesla dash - it's last gen MB - current MBux in entry level A-class is this:

View attachment 729505

I'm not saying this is better, it's subjective - but please compare actual cars. I'm all-in Tesla, won't sell for long time - but I totally understand colleagues who are choosing other brands in the EV space for premium-feeling.

Personal taste aside, those confusing buttons will wear out and basically shorten the life of the car.

 

[mickificki]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456566417252290562

“The sound of Tesla bears wailing and gnashing their teeth is audible from 50 paces.”

 

[winfield100]

blip on twitter about Li battery plant Europe
edit:
Two battery fires in the Daimler Mercedes-Benz plant. The new E-Bus is involved.

It's the 3rd Daimler battery fire now. A previous fire happened with the new EQS
(alex voigt tweet)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456548846327242761

 

[Mengy]

...but I totally understand colleagues who are choosing other brands in the EV space for premium-feeling.

I know this is subjective, but to me the spartan Tesla interior is "premium feeling". Less clutter and buttons, most functions elegantly integrated into the single screen, it just feels well thought out to me and very customizable while still being future proof to a large degree. "Normal" interiors with lots of buttons and switches and gizmos feel terribly outdated to me now.

Not much activity in pre market this morning, could be the silence before the Friday storm though!

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

.........

But that's not the likely steady state of production for Giga Shanghai, either. Its well known that the Phase 1/Model 3 line has a run rate of 800 cars/day. That means the Phase 2/Model Y lines were producing at 1,200 cars/day (about 1.5x the established Model 3 line). When the 2nd Model Y line comes up to full speed, we should expect at least 800 car/day from each line, or 1,600 Models Y / day.

Now I say "at least" because the Model Y now has 5 gigapresses total available for use, and the newer lines should be more productive than the older tech in the Model 3 line. Other reports indicate 1K Models Y per line. If that rate can be acheived in 2022, then that's (800+2*1,000) or 2,800 cars/day run rate, which is an annualized run rate of 950k/yr.

Even by the time the Model Y lines match the output of the Model 3 line, thats 2,400 cars/day or over 800k/yr run rate. But I think the Model 3 will eventually be retrofitted with the gigapress and increase its production to match the two newer Model Y lines, for 3k/day or over 1M cars per year from Giga Shanghai in steady state production.

Cheers!

The points @Artful Dodger makes in his post also have implications for Berlin and Austin. If Shanghai can get close to 2000Y/day then we would expect Berlin and Austin to be capable of at least the same number.

 

[Knightshade]

Is there some change to the legislation or is he simply mis-stating what the effects of the proposed legislation are?

His “Interpretation” suggests that GM is the only car company eligible for the $7500 credit which is not in line with what I’d heard about the bill.

I’d be fine with dropping the Union bit, but what he said is downright dishonest unless has been a big change to the house measure.

His claim is you're not a union company you lose the bulk of the credit, and that only 2 chevys get the full credit.

If you remove "bulk" and replace it with "a significant chunk" he's accurate, otherwise his facts are wrong. ($4500 is not the bulk of $12,500 which is the max new credit).

Where he's really being dishonest is leaving out the fact the REST of the credit is still as much (or more if you have US batteries) than the existing one everyone else can get ($7500 or 8k)- The union bone is $4500 on TOP of that- and yes only GM gets it today (because Fords only EV is made in Mexico)....

But the way he phrased it intentionally makes people think the "bulk of" the original $7500 would no longer be available to anyone else- which isn't so.

None of that changes the fact the union bit is stupid and very highly and obviously targeted--- but his way of highlighting that was no less obviously misleading.



Trying to drag this around to why TSLA investors should really care about the nature of this whole thing... Tesla clearly doesn't "need" the credits at all and no need to rehash that.

But the price increases- which someone pointed out a couple pages ago now match almost dollar for dollar the expected new credit Tesla would get- would be another $7500-8000 in straight up (or mostly at least) profit per car.

Seems pretty bullish a thing as an investor.... Regardless if it has some dumb crap there to also specifically help GM.

GM (briefly) had a significant tax credit advantage before (when Teslas ran out and GMs hadn't quite yet). They couldn't compete then- why would you think they could now?

 

[JupiterMan]

I know this is subjective, but to me the spartan Tesla interior is "premium feeling". Less clutter and buttons, most functions elegantly integrated into the single screen, it just feels well thought out to me and very customizable while still being future proof to a large degree. "Normal" interiors with lots of buttons and switches and gizmos feel terribly outdated to me now.

Not much activity in pre market this morning, could be the silence before the Friday storm though!

totally agree, it is like the Tesla is like the iphone, legacy is like the blackberry.

legacy has buttons everywhere and manual air vents which looks and feels very old fashioned and non premium to me now.

 

[cusetownusa]

Is there some change to the legislation or is he simply mis-stating what the effects of the proposed legislation are?

His “Interpretation” suggests that GM is the only car company eligible for the $7500 credit which is not in line with what I’d heard about the bill.

I’d be fine with dropping the Union bit, but what he said is downright dishonest unless has been a big change to the house measure.

That $7500 through me off as well but he does mention the $4500 Union part. But technically for a plug in hybrid only the big 3 can get the $8,000 rebate. So maybe he meant to say $8,000 the first time or maybe he meant $4500.

His overall point still stands albeit with the added politician twist of facts and alternative motives. Honestly, does he even give a *sugar* about the climate anymore than the people that wrote in the $4500 Union rebate, probably not.

 

[mars_or_bust]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456566417252290562

“The sound of Tesla bears wailing and gnashing their teeth is audible from 50 paces.”

The cluelessness of these professional financial managers never ceases to amaze me. Serious question: don't they teach in MBAs or University Economy courses the concept of disruptive technologies? It happens very often: MSFT, Apple, Amazon, bitcoin, now Tesla, google, etc - these and similar companies dominate the world economy, but it seems their rapid rise always takes the majority of these analysts by complete surprise. It is like they were only taught how to evaluate steel foundries, or shoe factories... I am not complaining - their ignorance enabled me to earn a lot of money, but still...

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1456566417252290562

“The sound of Tesla bears wailing and gnashing their teeth is audible from 50 paces.”

One theory for S&P addition was that the Hedgies front ran the indexes and then unload to them bag holders
history might repeat ... (+ if Gary is saying it now - we can surely assume many of the quants already thought of this a few weeks ago)

portfolio being forced to run decathon at sprint pace

 

[nctalkinghead]

Sorry, but that needs clarification (even if a bit off-topic) -- it's a bit of a hobby horse for me.

When you say the odds are high, do you really mean
a) literally, that the chances are low, or
b) what it sounds like, chances are high?

(Actually, I could care less!)
Quoting the tutor from The Last Emperor: If you can not say what you mean, you can never mean what you say.

er...actually that should be "Actually, I could NOT care less!"

 

[Artful Dodger]

Not much activity in pre market this morning, could be the silence before the Friday storm though!

Yeah, Max Pain is up $35 to $1155, Highest Call level up up $100 to $1,300 (over 28K Open contracts at that strike). Then, there's the Pre-market action (here's til 8 am)

Nope, Nothing to see.

Cheers!

 

[Unpilot]

Nice explanation of the big battery down under.

 

[thx1139]

Where he's really being dishonest is leaving out the fact the REST of the credit is still as much (or more if you have US batteries) than the existing one everyone else can get ($7500 or 8k)- The union bone is $4500 on TOP of that- and yes only GM gets it today (because Fords only EV is made in Mexico)....

What GM car? Isnt the Bolt made in Korea?

 

[Knightshade]

What GM car? Isnt the Bolt made in Korea?

Nope, some components are made in Korea, but vehicle assembly is in Michigan.

 

[ZeApelido]

Peter Rawlinson wants to let you know that Tesla's 4680's aren't a big deal.

Lucid CEO: Tesla's 4680 Batteries Aren't A Huge Breakthrough

Tesla bets on a new 4680-type cylindrical cell format, but according to Lucid's CEO/CTO Peter Rawlinson, it will not be "this huge breakthrough."

insideevs.com

 

[Words of HABIT]

Attention paper-handed longs:

You are underestimating the significance of the Lithium Iron Phosphate 250-mile vehicle. Tesla hasn't spelled it out for you so I'll attempt to do that here.

Tesla can easily squeeze *at least* 4,000 cycles out of an LFP cell with *today's* technology. A 250-mile car at 4,000 cycles is 1 million miles. We already know the motor and vehicle structure will last that long.

Right now an SR Model 3 with the CATL LFP cells from Giga Shanghai probably costs less than $30k to produce. With full casting, new paint shop etc it could easily get down to $25k or less, which over a million mile life is $0.025/mile.

Solar PV, wind and batteries are still setting new records every year for cheapest energy in history. If you look at RethinkX's projections (Tony Seba's team) let's say the price of electricity is going to fall 10x from today's typical price of about $0.15/kWh to perhaps $0.015/kWh by 2030. Model 3 even driven inefficiently gets at least 3 miles/kWh. Energy cost: $0.005/mile.

Then, Teslas will continue to get better at avoiding accidents with software upgrades. So insurance cost eventually also comes down 10x because the risk comes down 10x. Let's say that comes down from today's average vehicle insurance price of around $0.10/mile to $0.01/mi.

Reupholstering the interior and repainting the exterior 3 times over vehicle life is maybe $10k total, or $0.01/mile.

Tires, cleaning, wipers + fluid and other maintenance is perhaps $0.02/mile at most, same as it is today.

Road tax will need to be added, let's estimate $0.01/mile.

Total cost of Model 3 SR with LFP pack: $0.08/mi.

Let that sink in.

Currently driving costs at least $0.60/mi for an equivalent experience. This is a 7.5x cost reduction!! This is literally getting close to competing with the shoe replacement cost of walking!!

Not all of this will show up in margins but the value proposition is incredible. And no one else has most of what needs to be in place for this to work at this level, plus the packs very well might last longer than 1million miles. Additionally, this assumes no end of life scrap value of the battery and the rest of the car. So $0.05/mile is a plausible outcome by 2030.

Why oh why would you sell off a big chunk of your stake at anything close to today's share price??

@Gigapress, you numbers don't lie, however calculating based on driving one million miles is not realistic. Personally I plan to keep my Model 3 for 30 years and average 12,000 km per year (total 360,000 km) increasing my cost basis X3 as someone who drives one million miles on their Tesla. Also, although 12,000 km per year is average for driving annually, most owners will trade their Tesla in for a newer model after three, five or ten years, thereby again increasing the cost bases by several X times. Agree Tesla's proposition is much more efficient than ICE, just not quite as high based on real conditions for most all owners.