Beware! confirmation bias feels good!
“people experience genuine pleasure—a rush of dopamine—when processing information that supports their beliefs.”. Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Beware! confirmation bias feels good!
“people experience genuine pleasure—a rush of dopamine—when processing information that supports their beliefs.”. Why Facts Don’t Change Our Minds
wow, so the 700k annual run rate rumour last week turned out to be true.
Plot twist: Close today green?Shortzes starting to smell a trap? Elon's tacks brake at stake?
Nasdaq 100 Dec 21 (NQ=F)
CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD
16,343.00 -8.75 (-0.05%)
TSLA Pre-Market Quotes Live
This page refreshes every 30 seconds.
Data last updated Nov 08, 2021 05:30 AM ET.
Consolidated Last Sale $1156.23 -65.86 (-5.39%) Pre-Market Volume 639,685 Pre-Market High $1163.9 (05:10:21 AM) Pre-Market Low $1130.5 (04:24:08 AM)
I was expecting -5% for the day.
The fact it is -5% is compatible with my expectations. I wonder at what low it will trigger buy orders and stock to rally back. First phase, wallstreet sells on uncertainty.
Second phase, Elon sells 0.5% of his stock daily.
Third phase, recovery.
My covered calls I sold at 1325 for 26/11 seems to get safer and safer thanks to Elon for helping greatly
The fact it is -5% is compatible with my expectations. I wonder at what low it will trigger buy orders and stock to rally back. First phase, wallstreet sells on uncertainty.
Second phase, Elon sells 0.5% of his stock daily.
Third phase, recovery.
My covered calls I sold at 1325 for 26/11 seems to get safer and safer thanks to Elon for helping greatly
If you think the stock price will drop you just have to chat with @StrongGuy . You will have a great rush of dopamine!
Monday afternoon...
Not handcuffed, just limited.
With Uptick active, shorting cannot be used to burn to through the bid book (driving the stock down). However, they can continually short at one cent over the highest bid that preventing (or at least slowing) any natural stock rise (uber capping).
There is also nothing that prevents them from buying shares gradually and then dumping them to drive the price down.
Hands constrained; feet, mouth, head still in play.
I remember the saga when he said the stock was to high and look where we are now.
This to shall pass, it sucks if you are a short term trader or if you need to sell now.
For long term holders it’s all part of the fun and games when it comes to the leader.
This to shall pass, it sucks if you are a short term trader or if you need to sell now.
For long term holders it’s all part of the fun and games when it comes to the leader.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
With China news and upgrades, it's not impossible we end up green today. Would be hilarious to go right back to the +3.5% patern.
Shanghai Is the gift that keeps on giving. Amazing numbers despite a week long holiday.
I have my trigger finger ready for some discounted LEAPS
I have my trigger finger ready for some discounted LEAPS
Recommend you DELAY your closing.
Set up a margin account so as to borrow against your assets, as your TSLA assets will be worth much, much more in the months and years ahead.
Selling TSLA shares is an especially imprudent move at the moment. Frankly, you should instead be buying them during this sudden "Sale!" . . . .
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Little chance Elon's broker(s) hadn't already lined up dark pool sales b4 da poll.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Tough for TSLA to go below 1100 today due to rules that keep MM's from naked shorting into a heavy downswing.
Premarket is also moving up from 114x to now 117x. The macros and some good news might just overpower an Elon tweet.
Personally, my fear of that is one reason I continue to examine downside risks for every security I buy. Luckily I have not yet repeated my egregious errors of the 1960's. Just paying attention has helped avoid most of the crises and helped me to benefit from some of the 1973 and 2008 events. It is astonishing to me that it is so hard to be rational about things that evoke such positive images personally.
By far the hardest one for me has been TSLA, for six reasons: 1. high volatility; 2. key person dependency; 3. technology evolution; 4. raw materials sourcing risks; 5. Regulatory impediments; 6. Logistics/supplier issues.
Most of my analysis time is devoted to those six issues.
One key item that is NOT an issue is financial instability. The reasons for that exclusion are ones regularly pointed out by several people here. Simply, TSLA generates free cash flow in increasing levels every year. The chief reason is that Tesla has the shortest supplier delivery to cash received cycle I have ever heard of for an industrial company. The business model effectively eliminates finished goods inventory in typical industrial practice. No dealers and no speculative products builds allows finished goods to cash cycle to be typically less than two weeks, so global Days-on-hand keeps diminishing. This chart shows just how important that is to financial health, while giving the major clue to how Tesla manages to grow at ~50% pa and still have positive Free Cash Flow.
How Efficient Has Tesla Been Managing Its Inventory? | Fundamental Data And Statistics For Stocks
Discover Tesla's inventory levels and management thru the inventory turnover ratio, days of inventory, inventory to current assets and to sales/revenue ratio.
stockdividendscreener.com
Although not one of my six items my singular principle metric of merit is Free Cash Flow, and the fastest way to observe that is a trifle indirect, inventory % of current assets. So, why use an indirect measure when direct lines are available? Simple, the inventory % of current assets is essentially predictive fo continuing cash flow generation cycle. Long before one can see financial reports showing weaker cash flow the reporting of inventory and current assets tends to be available. The direct measures all must employ sources and uses of funds with careful assessment of financing activities.
2022 is, in my opinion, the year that will test Tesla more than any other. The scale increases will be beyond anything we have seen before, with massive growth in every element form Shanghai, Grüneheide, Austin, Sparks and Fremont to all the myriad suppliers for each and the factories from Buffalo and Markham teeter also.
Thus among the six categories 2022 will test logistics in ways that have never been faced by Tesla. That, and the world logistics challenges, combine to make item six fundamental to risk assessment next year.
Thus our fondest hopes are facing unprecedented challenges now. Careful risk evaluation is essential to be a prudent bull.
ZachF
Active Member
I’m gonna laugh when it ends up being green today
What do you guys think about Kimbal Musk's action as he managed to sell shares last friday? Seems every time he managed to sell at the top and correction started since then.
Kimbal's share sales a pre-arranged well in advance and relatively minor in the scheme of things, so I wouldn't be drawing too many parallels to market action.
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