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As much as I am a PHEV pessimist in general, I keep wondering if trucks are not the niche for people who rarely tow, but when they do it would require a 200 kWh battery in BEV form, and appropriate charging facilities.

I've said it before and I think it is still true: ALL the BEV truck designs coming to market I know of are ignoring what it takes to tow something big and heavy for 200+ miles, and few consumers are clued in.
This is why Tesla should put ME in the front of the line to get a Cyber Truck, I have to pay someone with a Dualie (F-250/350) with 4 rear wheels to tow my boat from New Jersey to Key West 1400miles. I could be their test for heavy long range towing. What do you think? You agree? Great ! now start a petition & send it to Elon.
 
During the last couple of days I'vv had a few messages with kind comments. Perhaps I should explain myself a trifle better than I did.
As I reflect I recall a comment made to me by my favorite boss as he was preparing to retire:
a loose paraphrase was 'after a certain age one's experience and judgement no longer serve to guide other younger people. When that happens it is time to go.'
I have been posting on TMC for a bit more than six years. During that time I have advocated the same positions in slightly different ways, but the basic ideas have not changed. I have been acutely aware of repeating myself.

One of my young colleagues mentioned that "...for an old guy you're surprisingly well informed." (Translated from the Portuguese). She intended it as a compliment, perhaps. Still, I make many typos, itself not a mark of vibrance and good habits. Then I realize I persist in repeating the same stories. I justify that because the people who gave us 2008 are ones who very nearly brought on global depression, narrowly averted by good luck rather than good judgement. I keep thinking if younger people would understand that and other such lessons they would be better investors. if my assertion was valid the oldsters would have learned also, but we all know they haven't. A recent stay on Hank Paulson's island reminded me that there is no plausible assertion that there is any causal relation to be had between cause and effect in 2008 or any other year.

With those thoughts I realized I should stop now, not because of rancor, but because I am repeating myself.

So, I know those positions are valid. I know nearly all retail 'investors' using margin, puts, cals and other such instruments will eventually lose. The house wins, if anybody does. That is the last time I will post such positions simply to stop repeating myself.

I will not depart TMC nor will I stop reading pertinent parts of these threads, and continue rating posts, but not with words. I will refrain from posting in this thread.
 
This is why Tesla should put ME in the front of the line to get a Cyber Truck, I have to pay someone with a Dualie (F-250/350) with 4 rear wheels to tow my boat from New Jersey to Key West 1400miles. I could be their test for heavy long range towing. What do you think? You agree? Great ! now start a petition & send it to Elon.
I was describing my Cyber plans with a buddy in Canada last night. He's also a lifelong boater like all of us growing up on the Shuswap Lakes. Electric boats came up, and I came to the conclusion that I may need 2 CyberTrucks. One to tow the boat, the other to charge the boat. I believe this is similar to how Starship will refuel once in orbit. CyberBuddies for life!
 
During the last couple of days I'vv had a few messages with kind comments. Perhaps I should explain myself a trifle better than I did.
As I reflect I recall a comment made to me by my favorite boss as he was preparing to retire:
a loose paraphrase was 'after a certain age one's experience and judgement no longer serve to guide other younger people. When that happens it is time to go.'
I have been posting on TMC for a bit more than six years. During that time I have advocated the same positions in slightly different ways, but the basic ideas have not changed. I have been acutely aware of repeating myself.

One of my young colleagues mentioned that "...for an old guy you're surprisingly well informed." (Translated from the Portuguese). She intended it as a compliment, perhaps. Still, I make many typos, itself not a mark of vibrance and good habits. Then I realize I persist in repeating the same stories. I justify that because the people who gave us 2008 are ones who very nearly brought on global depression, narrowly averted by good luck rather than good judgement. I keep thinking if younger people would understand that and other such lessons they would be better investors. if my assertion was valid the oldsters would have learned also, but we all know they haven't. A recent stay on Hank Paulson's island reminded me that there is no plausible assertion that there is any causal relation to be had between cause and effect in 2008 or any other year.

With those thoughts I realized I should stop now, not because of rancor, but because I am repeating myself.

So, I know those positions are valid. I know nearly all retail 'investors' using margin, puts, cals and other such instruments will eventually lose. The house wins, if anybody does. That is the last time I will post such positions simply to stop repeating myself.

I will not depart TMC nor will I stop reading pertinent parts of these threads, and continue rating posts, but not with words. I will refrain from posting in this thread.
I've got an an enormous amount of value, interest and amusement from your posts. I hope you keep posting. I've learned so much.
 
I will not depart TMC nor will I stop reading pertinent parts of these threads, and continue rating posts, but not with words. I will refrain from posting in this thread.

This should be an empiric decision: your like to post ratio is about 7, which probably puts you as the most important contributor in this forum. When it drops below 0.5 you will have a valid point.

PLEASE continue to post. I often skim this thread, and if I don't find anything from you or a few others I feel like my time was not spent wisely.
 
During the last couple of days I'vv had a few messages with kind comments. Perhaps I should explain myself a trifle better than I did.
As I reflect I recall a comment made to me by my favorite boss as he was preparing to retire:
a loose paraphrase was 'after a certain age one's experience and judgement no longer serve to guide other younger people. When that happens it is time to go.'
I have been posting on TMC for a bit more than six years. During that time I have advocated the same positions in slightly different ways, but the basic ideas have not changed. I have been acutely aware of repeating myself.

One of my young colleagues mentioned that "...for an old guy you're surprisingly well informed." (Translated from the Portuguese). She intended it as a compliment, perhaps. Still, I make many typos, itself not a mark of vibrance and good habits. Then I realize I persist in repeating the same stories. I justify that because the people who gave us 2008 are ones who very nearly brought on global depression, narrowly averted by good luck rather than good judgement. I keep thinking if younger people would understand that and other such lessons they would be better investors. if my assertion was valid the oldsters would have learned also, but we all know they haven't. A recent stay on Hank Paulson's island reminded me that there is no plausible assertion that there is any causal relation to be had between cause and effect in 2008 or any other year.

With those thoughts I realized I should stop now, not because of rancor, but because I am repeating myself.

So, I know those positions are valid. I know nearly all retail 'investors' using margin, puts, cals and other such instruments will eventually lose. The house wins, if anybody does. That is the last time I will post such positions simply to stop repeating myself.

I will not depart TMC nor will I stop reading pertinent parts of these threads, and continue rating posts, but not with words. I will refrain from posting in this thread.

I’m sure I speak for the vast majority when I say I hope you will reconsider. Your insights over the years have been extremely valuable. I’ve been a member since 2014, read almost every post in every iteration of these threads, and have never once thought “jbcarioca is being repetitive.”
 
During the last couple of days I'vv had a few messages with kind comments. Perhaps I should explain myself a trifle better than I did.
As I reflect I recall a comment made to me by my favorite boss as he was preparing to retire:
a loose paraphrase was 'after a certain age one's experience and judgement no longer serve to guide other younger people. When that happens it is time to go.'
I have been posting on TMC for a bit more than six years. During that time I have advocated the same positions in slightly different ways, but the basic ideas have not changed. I have been acutely aware of repeating myself.

One of my young colleagues mentioned that "...for an old guy you're surprisingly well informed." (Translated from the Portuguese). She intended it as a compliment, perhaps. Still, I make many typos, itself not a mark of vibrance and good habits. Then I realize I persist in repeating the same stories. I justify that because the people who gave us 2008 are ones who very nearly brought on global depression, narrowly averted by good luck rather than good judgement. I keep thinking if younger people would understand that and other such lessons they would be better investors. if my assertion was valid the oldsters would have learned also, but we all know they haven't. A recent stay on Hank Paulson's island reminded me that there is no plausible assertion that there is any causal relation to be had between cause and effect in 2008 or any other year.

With those thoughts I realized I should stop now, not because of rancor, but because I am repeating myself.

So, I know those positions are valid. I know nearly all retail 'investors' using margin, puts, cals and other such instruments will eventually lose. The house wins, if anybody does. That is the last time I will post such positions simply to stop repeating myself.

I will not depart TMC nor will I stop reading pertinent parts of these threads, and continue rating posts, but not with words. I will refrain from posting in this thread.
I would like to explain my disagree.
I do not disagree with what you wrote....as always, I read the whole post and agree with most of it.
However, saying you will not post anymore because you feel you repeat yourself is what I disagree with.

This is not a static forum....I am sure we have new people come and go all the time. Many lurkers as well who never post.
When I joined, I had read for a few weeks before posting...but I did not go back over every single post....so I am sure I missed some gems.

You do a disservice to people to withhold your knowledge.

As sad as it is, we seem to be heading towards a future where the loud, yet ignorant generate the most attention.

We sorely need reasoned, patient voices to be heard.

Please reconsider.
 
During the last couple of days I'vv had a few messages with kind comments. Perhaps I should explain myself a trifle better than I did.
As I reflect I recall a comment made to me by my favorite boss as he was preparing to retire:
a loose paraphrase was 'after a certain age one's experience and judgement no longer serve to guide other younger people. When that happens it is time to go.'
I have been posting on TMC for a bit more than six years. During that time I have advocated the same positions in slightly different ways, but the basic ideas have not changed. I have been acutely aware of repeating myself.

One of my young colleagues mentioned that "...for an old guy you're surprisingly well informed." (Translated from the Portuguese). She intended it as a compliment, perhaps. Still, I make many typos, itself not a mark of vibrance and good habits. Then I realize I persist in repeating the same stories. I justify that because the people who gave us 2008 are ones who very nearly brought on global depression, narrowly averted by good luck rather than good judgement. I keep thinking if younger people would understand that and other such lessons they would be better investors. if my assertion was valid the oldsters would have learned also, but we all know they haven't. A recent stay on Hank Paulson's island reminded me that there is no plausible assertion that there is any causal relation to be had between cause and effect in 2008 or any other year.

With those thoughts I realized I should stop now, not because of rancor, but because I am repeating myself.

So, I know those positions are valid. I know nearly all retail 'investors' using margin, puts, cals and other such instruments will eventually lose. The house wins, if anybody does. That is the last time I will post such positions simply to stop repeating myself.

I will not depart TMC nor will I stop reading pertinent parts of these threads, and continue rating posts, but not with words. I will refrain from posting in this thread.

Thank you for all the posts you made, and I learned from, and I hope you will still post your thoughts and share your knowledge, when you feel like. Thank you!
 
I would like to explain my disagree.
I do not disagree with what you wrote....as always, I read the whole post and agree with most of it.
However, saying you will not post anymore because you feel you repeat yourself is what I disagree with.

This is not a static forum....I am sure we have new people come and go all the time. Many lurkers as well who never post.
When I joined, I had read for a few weeks before posting...but I did not go back over every single post....so I am sure I missed some gems.

You do a disservice to people to withhold your knowledge.

As sad as it is, we seem to be heading towards a future where the loud, yet ignorant generate the most attention.

We sorely need reasoned, patient voices to be heard.

Please reconsider.
I really hope he'll reconsider as well, but let's not lay any guilt trips about his doing this forum a disservice by not posting. Maybe he just needs a little break. I know last week was stressful for me and likely many others here.
 
During the last couple of days I'vv had a few messages with kind comments. Perhaps I should explain myself a trifle better than I did.
As I reflect I recall a comment made to me by my favorite boss as he was preparing to retire:
a loose paraphrase was 'after a certain age one's experience and judgement no longer serve to guide other younger people. When that happens it is time to go.'
I have been posting on TMC for a bit more than six years. During that time I have advocated the same positions in slightly different ways, but the basic ideas have not changed. I have been acutely aware of repeating myself.

One of my young colleagues mentioned that "...for an old guy you're surprisingly well informed." (Translated from the Portuguese). She intended it as a compliment, perhaps. Still, I make many typos, itself not a mark of vibrance and good habits. Then I realize I persist in repeating the same stories. I justify that because the people who gave us 2008 are ones who very nearly brought on global depression, narrowly averted by good luck rather than good judgement. I keep thinking if younger people would understand that and other such lessons they would be better investors. if my assertion was valid the oldsters would have learned also, but we all know they haven't. A recent stay on Hank Paulson's island reminded me that there is no plausible assertion that there is any causal relation to be had between cause and effect in 2008 or any other year.

With those thoughts I realized I should stop now, not because of rancor, but because I am repeating myself.

So, I know those positions are valid. I know nearly all retail 'investors' using margin, puts, cals and other such instruments will eventually lose. The house wins, if anybody does. That is the last time I will post such positions simply to stop repeating myself.

I will not depart TMC nor will I stop reading pertinent parts of these threads, and continue rating posts, but not with words. I will refrain from posting in this thread.
Imparting your hard won experiences and knowledge accumulated over decades of real life actions to people who come from different worlds and generations who know either little or absolutely nothing about what you write is tantamount to teaching someone a new language.

Languages are best learned and mastered through repetition, slight variances in those repetitions and the application of those learned repetitions to new situations in the real world.

You are not repeating yourself. Or if you are, then it is to cast new light on current events. It does not matter if the flashlight has been used before. This repeated information applied to a different context will always teach a nuance that was not understood before. Like learning a new language.

Maybe the people you hang with in your circle are all geniuses of one type or another with similar depth of experience (they probably are) but your audience here is a much wider one and there are many neophytes to much of what you describe. Even if people disagree with you, I don’t believe that anyone here would argue that you do not bring a lot to the table and that you should not continue.

Thank you for all of your posts to TMC. If you want to edit yourself by reducing your overall number of posts so that they be more meaningful in your opinion when you post, this is your decision of course. But please continue posting.
 
During the last couple of days I'vv had a few messages with kind comments. Perhaps I should explain myself a trifle better than I did.
As I reflect I recall a comment made to me by my favorite boss as he was preparing to retire:
a loose paraphrase was 'after a certain age one's experience and judgement no longer serve to guide other younger people. When that happens it is time to go.'
I have been posting on TMC for a bit more than six years. During that time I have advocated the same positions in slightly different ways, but the basic ideas have not changed. I have been acutely aware of repeating myself.

One of my young colleagues mentioned that "...for an old guy you're surprisingly well informed." (Translated from the Portuguese). She intended it as a compliment, perhaps. Still, I make many typos, itself not a mark of vibrance and good habits. Then I realize I persist in repeating the same stories. I justify that because the people who gave us 2008 are ones who very nearly brought on global depression, narrowly averted by good luck rather than good judgement. I keep thinking if younger people would understand that and other such lessons they would be better investors. if my assertion was valid the oldsters would have learned also, but we all know they haven't. A recent stay on Hank Paulson's island reminded me that there is no plausible assertion that there is any causal relation to be had between cause and effect in 2008 or any other year.

With those thoughts I realized I should stop now, not because of rancor, but because I am repeating myself.

So, I know those positions are valid. I know nearly all retail 'investors' using margin, puts, cals and other such instruments will eventually lose. The house wins, if anybody does. That is the last time I will post such positions simply to stop repeating myself.

I will not depart TMC nor will I stop reading pertinent parts of these threads, and continue rating posts, but not with words. I will refrain from posting in this thread.
Anytime a member/contributor of your caliber leaves, it's as though a library has just burned down.

A huge thank you for all you've given.
 
During the last couple of days I'vv had a few messages with kind comments. Perhaps I should explain myself a trifle better than I did.
As I reflect I recall a comment made to me by my favorite boss as he was preparing to retire:
a loose paraphrase was 'after a certain age one's experience and judgement no longer serve to guide other younger people. When that happens it is time to go.'
I have been posting on TMC for a bit more than six years. During that time I have advocated the same positions in slightly different ways, but the basic ideas have not changed. I have been acutely aware of repeating myself.

One of my young colleagues mentioned that "...for an old guy you're surprisingly well informed." (Translated from the Portuguese). She intended it as a compliment, perhaps. Still, I make many typos, itself not a mark of vibrance and good habits. Then I realize I persist in repeating the same stories. I justify that because the people who gave us 2008 are ones who very nearly brought on global depression, narrowly averted by good luck rather than good judgement. I keep thinking if younger people would understand that and other such lessons they would be better investors. if my assertion was valid the oldsters would have learned also, but we all know they haven't. A recent stay on Hank Paulson's island reminded me that there is no plausible assertion that there is any causal relation to be had between cause and effect in 2008 or any other year.

With those thoughts I realized I should stop now, not because of rancor, but because I am repeating myself.

So, I know those positions are valid. I know nearly all retail 'investors' using margin, puts, cals and other such instruments will eventually lose. The house wins, if anybody does. That is the last time I will post such positions simply to stop repeating myself.

I will not depart TMC nor will I stop reading pertinent parts of these threads, and continue rating posts, but not with words. I will refrain from posting in this thread.
Hi,

I learn from every post you make. You use topic sentences in a way that makes reading your posts efficient.

Have you tried the ignore button? I am at 77, not based on content, but based on language and tone and how others are treated. I don't want to pick up bad habits.

I read your posts as an example of good communication habits.

And would like to read more of your posts in the future.
 
As much as I am a PHEV pessimist in general, I keep wondering if trucks are not the niche for people who rarely tow, but when they do it would require a 200 kWh battery in BEV form, and appropriate charging facilities.

I've said it before and I think it is still true: ALL the BEV truck designs coming to market I know of are ignoring what it takes to tow something big and heavy for 200+ miles, and few consumers are clued in.
So far that seems true, Rivian article, seems that specific high tow load battery chemistries haven't made it market. I'm not aware of any auto company announcement either. This does seem consistent with auto companies plans to compete with Tesla however.

Possible/most likely competitors plan/thought process:

Auto company: What did Tesla do 5 to 10 years ago?
Auto company: Ok, let's copy that and put our own slick design branding on it! Huge grills are so cool!
Auto company: Can we buy the electric drive-train stuff from 3rd party suppliers?
Auto company: Sure, they sell batteries, motors, inverters, BMS...etc
Auto company: Great! Can we get the same ones that Tesla bought from you?
3rd party supplier: Uhhh, these are similar? kinda?
Auto company: Good enough!
I think they are here in late 2021--> Auto company: Soooo, our cars get way less range, performance, longevity than Tesla....why? And, how can we make a profit at Tesla sales prices? No amount of deceptive, misleading advertising and propaganda is helping either...
Auto company (at some point in the future to save their company): What is 'battery chemistry'?
Auto company: How many battery chemistry engineers, scientists, validation, quality personnel does Tesla have?
Auto company: Wait, we need to employ them and all these other engineers for the rest of the drivetrain?
Auto company: But we employ all these ICE engineers! Can't they do it?
Auto company: Wait, exactly how vertically integrated is Tesla?
Auto company: And exactly how long will it take to come up with a competing powertrain?
Auto company: How much is the capital investment?
Auto company: And if we do, can we scale it? Where will all the raw materials come from?
Auto company: And we can get those raw materials at the same price Tesla can right? And the same volumes?
Auto company: What do you mean 7 to 10 years to start a new raw materials mine?

As I wrote this, I started thinking about how deep this rabbit hole goes and how far Tesla has thought about the problem of sustainable transportation and that they might have to do this ON THEIR OWN. I didn't work with the battery team closely, but I did walk by the cell validation lab on my way to the showers after riding my bike to Deer Creek and would chat up folks. This lab was humming 24/7 cycling 10's of thousands of batteries that equated to several million miles of driving in harsh environmental conditions (temp, pressure, shock, vibration...etc) in a matter of days.

It is mind blowing much engineering Tesla has done in the past decade. How much I did and how much has been done since I left. Staggering. As I sit, impatiently waiting for V10.6 to finish downloading to my SUV that is faster than a Lambo. ;)
 
During the last couple of days I'vv had a few messages with kind comments. Perhaps I should explain myself a trifle better than I did.
As I reflect I recall a comment made to me by my favorite boss as he was preparing to retire:
a loose paraphrase was 'after a certain age one's experience and judgement no longer serve to guide other younger people. When that happens it is time to go.'
I have been posting on TMC for a bit more than six years. During that time I have advocated the same positions in slightly different ways, but the basic ideas have not changed. I have been acutely aware of repeating myself.

One of my young colleagues mentioned that "...for an old guy you're surprisingly well informed." (Translated from the Portuguese). She intended it as a compliment, perhaps. Still, I make many typos, itself not a mark of vibrance and good habits. Then I realize I persist in repeating the same stories. I justify that because the people who gave us 2008 are ones who very nearly brought on global depression, narrowly averted by good luck rather than good judgement. I keep thinking if younger people would understand that and other such lessons they would be better investors. if my assertion was valid the oldsters would have learned also, but we all know they haven't. A recent stay on Hank Paulson's island reminded me that there is no plausible assertion that there is any causal relation to be had between cause and effect in 2008 or any other year.

With those thoughts I realized I should stop now, not because of rancor, but because I am repeating myself.

So, I know those positions are valid. I know nearly all retail 'investors' using margin, puts, cals and other such instruments will eventually lose. The house wins, if anybody does. That is the last time I will post such positions simply to stop repeating myself.

I will not depart TMC nor will I stop reading pertinent parts of these threads, and continue rating posts, but not with words. I will refrain from posting in this thread.
Lewis Hamilton often states that the 25 year old Lewis would not beat the driver he is today. Knowledge and experience count, and it is clear that Tesla are now much better at designing cars for production, building factories and ramping their production than they were 5 years ago.

Your posts (and those of a number of others) always reflect the knowledge and experience you have built up operating at a senior level in organisations with a global reach. This is hugely beneficial to TMC readers that do not have the same background, and I thank you for these inputs.

We have lost too many thoughtful and knowledgeable contributors in the past and the board is poorer for their departure. Please do not add to their ranks.
 
During the last couple of days I'vv had a few messages with kind comments. Perhaps I should explain myself a trifle better than I did.
As I reflect I recall a comment made to me by my favorite boss as he was preparing to retire:
a loose paraphrase was 'after a certain age one's experience and judgement no longer serve to guide other younger people. When that happens it is time to go.'
I have been posting on TMC for a bit more than six years. During that time I have advocated the same positions in slightly different ways, but the basic ideas have not changed. I have been acutely aware of repeating myself.

One of my young colleagues mentioned that "...for an old guy you're surprisingly well informed." (Translated from the Portuguese). She intended it as a compliment, perhaps. Still, I make many typos, itself not a mark of vibrance and good habits. Then I realize I persist in repeating the same stories. I justify that because the people who gave us 2008 are ones who very nearly brought on global depression, narrowly averted by good luck rather than good judgement. I keep thinking if younger people would understand that and other such lessons they would be better investors. if my assertion was valid the oldsters would have learned also, but we all know they haven't. A recent stay on Hank Paulson's island reminded me that there is no plausible assertion that there is any causal relation to be had between cause and effect in 2008 or any other year.

With those thoughts I realized I should stop now, not because of rancor, but because I am repeating myself.

So, I know those positions are valid. I know nearly all retail 'investors' using margin, puts, cals and other such instruments will eventually lose. The house wins, if anybody does. That is the last time I will post such positions simply to stop repeating myself.

I will not depart TMC nor will I stop reading pertinent parts of these threads, and continue rating posts, but not with words. I will refrain from posting in this thread.

I share in your frustration as I feel like I sound like some Tesla fanboy alarmist to nearly all my friends. Nobody that I know owns a Tesla. Not family, not friends, even though some are fairly wealthy. The same goes with medicine as I see only Naturopaths and do not take "medicine." (My father was warned by the AMA in writing against "practicing" with supplements in the early 70's, so I have first hand data there). My position on medicine this morning showed a little, and so I tried to keep it to investment but that's tricky. It's unlikely I changed anyone's position, but I don't recommend simply giving up debate or sharing views. It will touch someone, somewhere.

I actually missed your comment yesterday that caused you back off. I found 20 comments in reaction, not the source ironically so no judgement from me, but pretty clear that folks here don't seem to want you to silence, just sayin' ;) I did see your humble response yesterday, and that could be the most important thing you shared with us. I don't see this enough as some people can't admit fault (or just pick the wrong words at times).

Just so I understand, this response is because members keep disagreeing with your repeated attempts on some position, and that nobody will listen to the old people? I think you might want to sleep on that again. There are new people in here all the time, not the same crowd, and the data is always changing. In that sense, your position could be getting on more solid ground with time.

It sounds from the above that you encourage buying stock in TSLA vs options. We are in violent agreement as with many here I'm certain, others not so much I can only gleem. I have one call option due in Jan, it's not doing so well, but it's interesting to watch and learn from it's relative movement. Anyway, I also like your wisdom, please don't shut down. Possibly even more humble would be if you changed your mind again after reading all those comments yesterday. It would be quite Canadian-like if you did.
 


FSD now has the ability to recognize and use medians to complete turns across many lanes of traffic (with cars incoming on the opposite side of traffic). Fundamentally new behavior/abilities being introduced with 10.6

I gotta say, the rate of improvement and feature implementation has me debating if I buy some extremely high strike price LEAPS for Jan 2024 on Monday. To say progress has been impressive over the past 2 months is a big understatement and Wall St is completely ignoring this.
 
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