Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

It Is a bit unclear to me if rear wheel drive only is no longer a CT option?

A standard dual motor rear unit with steering ability makes sense as a standard on all CT. This mitigates the added complexity of steering by the removal of the differential. This would be the 2 motor version In this thinking.

Once the rear is decided as a standard, the question is the forward drive unit. One motor front drive unit might be a good option since it is already in production.

Going to a dual motor front drive unit is new engineering. Adding drive by wire would also be new. If drive by wire is already a settled decision then engineering a new dual motor unit drive unit at the same time makes some sense also for possible reasons I won’t go into.

Engineering a dual motor steerable drive unit would have multiple applications beyond todays product line and would possibly extend drive by wire to more products and increase standardization.

I'm thinking it makes the most sense for the dual motor to be RWD (no single motor version) and the Quad motor to be AWD but of course we will get the straight scoop before it matters.

I believe Elon has CT in his thinking because soon must be pencils down as to design. The fact that the drive unit configuration is still in discussion reflects that pencils have been busy until recently IMO.

I'm always careful before making assumptions. The fact that there have been no public updates on drivetrain configurations until now does not mean the designing is still happening now or until recently. IMO, it's most likely that Tesla made this decision a long time ago, many months, probably over a year ago, and has been validating test mules and just hasn't updated publicly because there was no need or benefit to updating. Our reservations clearly say the specifications may change. So why would Tesla update early when there was no legal or practical reason to do so? It could even be the early specs were a form of sandbagging, a way to leave room for "one more thing" as production neared.

And I'm excited because we are getting close to hearing all the awesome details! Elon doesn't like to disappoint!

It would be great to have a documentary focused on the CT development process from the metal up.

I'm confident hours of high-quality video footage already exists that will be edited and released at the appropriate time. Maybe not until after the Cybertruck is a runaway success and they have invaded N. American roads in unexpectedly large numbers. These are exciting times to be a Tesla investor as we watch the transition to EV's gain momentum. We are still in the early days!

 

[JRP3]

I'm thinking it makes the most sense for the dual motor to be RWD

If you're adding the expense of a second motor it makes the most sense to provide 4WD. Makes a more usable vehicle and demands a higher price point. Dual rear motors and nothing up front would be a waste.

 

[mongo]

If you're adding the expense of a second motor it makes the most sense to provide 4WD. Makes a more usable vehicle and demands a higher price point. Dual rear motors and nothing up front would be a waste.

HD trucks are often 2WD. AWD is more of a weather thing (or boat ramp) than a towing/ payload driver. Utility wise, it's better to have more power on the rear axle where bed and towing loads rest.

Dual rear: Each motor section only needs half the power output. No differential. No need to use brakes to control slip. Reuse of quad motor rear unit.

One front one rear: 2 more half shafts, additional drive unit housing, unique differential front and rear drive units. Brakes for slip traction control. Still two rotor/ stators/inverter sets.

 

[StealthP3D]

On CNBC on Friday, they were talking non-stop about Tesla at risk over China relations.......with zero evidence to actually back up what they're saying. The reality is :

- Tesla China sources 80-90% of their materials locally - tariff war won't impact Tesla
- Tesla China serves as the main export HUB for Tesla which is very beneficial for the Chinese Government
- Tesla China pays their workers far above the average wage of a factory worker in China

China has every reason to love Tesla and want to continue a strong relationship, there's zero reasons to counter that

Very good analysis.

And that is why you will never be on CNBC!

 

[StealthP3D]

If you're adding the expense of a second motor it makes the most sense to provide 4WD. Makes a more usable vehicle and demands a higher price point. Dual rear motors and nothing up front would be a waste.

I've long believed that EV's would eventually be one motor per wheel because it's mechanically simpler and results in more precise control for things like anti-lock regenerative braking and traction and stability control. Two small motors do not cost double one large motor. By this way of thinking a car should only have one central motor with differentials and driveshafts to distribute the power. It makes more sense to have smaller motors at the individual wheels. And since it's advantageous to cover a broader price range, for those who are particularly cost sensitive, not all vehicles will be AWD.

Let's see what Elon announces soon. My guess is RWD with one independent motor for each rear wheel.

 

[AudubonB]

From t=0, my biggest concern has been with CT's suspension system. I've desperately been hoping it is as far removed from those of the Models S & X as can be, as no iteration of that ever both can hold up to the rigors an off-road vehicle presents as well as be able to track well under the normal, high-speed highway conditions that will repressent 99% of the life of 99% of all CT's. I've kept as close an eye as I have been able to since even before the CT was unveiled and have learned effectively nothing of what constitutes its suspension system.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Did the crypto flash crash cause Bitcoin to go low enough to affect Tesla’s financials for the quarter (i.e. impairment)?

 

[mongo]

Did the crypto flash crash cause Bitcoin to go low enough to affect Tesla’s financials for the quarter (i.e. impairment)?

Not even close. Tesla's basis is in the 20s or so.

 

[2daMoon]

HD trucks are often 2WD. AWD is more of a weather thing (or boat ramp) than a towing/ payload driver. Utility wise, it's better to have more power on the rear axle where bed and towing loads rest.

Dual rear: Each motor section only needs half the power output. No differential. No need to use brakes to control slip. Reuse of quad motor rear unit.

One front one rear: 2 more half shafts, additional drive unit housing, unique differential front and rear drive units. Brakes for slip traction control. Still two rotor/ stators/inverter sets.

Having only the rear wheels driven make a (legacy) pickup more vulnerable to traction problems when there is no load. Turns on wet roads, climbing loose surface hills, etc. Granted, Tesla and others can apply traction control measures to deal with this, but it is a compromise.

Most pickups, most of the time, have no load in the back (because they are used primarily as grocery-getters). Granted, things like extended cabs and short beds help get more weight on the rear axle, but the traction issue does exist most of the time for most pickup owners.

AWD solves that, and Tesla is all about safety. (which may be another reason for dropping the Single Motor model)

The only reason for legacy OEMs to make a RWD pickup is to save adding the cost of the 4WD parts to the sticker. It saves the buyer thousands, and most never know the difference for the most common tasks it is used for.

If the CT is going to have 2 motors or 4 motors then the cost of only making AWD versions is likely absorbed in economy of scale from not having to support RWD production and dealing with unique parts. (Best part is what? Right, no part.)

Full disclosure, my reservation is for a 2 motor AWD model.

 

[Gigapress]

Anyone else considering just how good the gross margin prospects are for Tesla? They are almost 30% today. They are currently funding CAPEX and building out factories to support their new 4680 cell design that is estimated to allow them to reduce the cell/pack cost by more than 50%. These future savings are being funded today but everything today still uses the full price old batteries. This doesn't even consider FSD...

I'm projecting 40-50% gross margin on 3/Y by this time next year. Most of this will driven by price increase expectations from:

• Price increases over Q3 2021 known as of Q4 2021
• Price increases from even more demand (Hertz rentals, TSLA stock attention, Tom Brady ads all NFL season, rising oil prices, Cybertruck initial sales blowing people's minds, etc)
• US Tax Credit
• Mix (more model Y, more Shanghai, Euro pent up demand high end sales)
• FSD Revenue Increases

 

[mongo]

Having only the rear wheels driven make a pickup vulnerable to traction problems when there is no load. Turns on wet roads, climbing loose surface hills, etc.

Most pickups, most of the time, have no load in the back (because they are used primarily as grocery-getters). Granted, things like extended cabs and short beds help get more weight on the rear axle, but the traction issue does exist most of the time for most pickup owners.

AWD solves that, and Tesla is all about safety. (which may be another reason for dropping the Single Motor model)

The only reason for legacy OEMs to make a RWD pickup is to save adding the cost of the 4WD parts to the sticker. It saves the buyer thousands, and most never know the difference.

If the CT is going to have 2 motors or 4 motors then the cost of only making AWD versions is likely absorbed in economy of scale from not having to support RWD production and dealing with unique parts. (Best part is what? Right, no part.)

Full disclosure, my reservation is for a 2 motor AWD model.

Agree partly for ICE pickup (I put my Sierra into AWD to pull onto the pavement from our dirt road or making a turn from a stop in the city).
However, the mass of CT is concentrated in the mid /rear mounted pack, not an engine/transmission over the front axle, so the empty weight distribution should be much better than current products.
Also, torque vectoring (and 4 wheel steering) would make a big difference in handling on poor surfaces.

 

[22522]

Predicting the direction of Cyber Truck drive and suspension can help anticipate stock price changes. Here are some observations that may help.

Tesla has invested a lot in motors, but to obtains power per lb the RPM has to be high. (Look at the routers at the local hardware store). If the motor moves to the the wheel, the gear reduction system would go with it. Pot holes would not be a friend.

That leaves half shafts and a central motor (and gear reduction) to accommodate pot holes. When I shopped for half shafts, there was a limit on drive angle at each end. In other words, significant suspension travel required significantly long half shafts.

I think so far these are just facts. Maybe someone else can predict. Or maybe there are other facts. Hoping someone can build off this.

 

[GOVA]

I'd still get back at electromagnetic shocks, but unfortunately Bose pantented them. ?

Whatever Bose is.

In any case, it is shocking nothing has improved for several years.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Not even close. Tesla's basis is in the 20s or so.

I thought it was based on the price of BTC at the beginning of each quarter?

 

[st_lopes]

I thought it was based on the price of BTC at the beginning of each quarter?

It’s not. Once you take an impairment your cost basis is now at the impaired level. So, no, this crash won’t do anything. We would need to revisit 20k levels to see any other impairment charges.

 

[dhanson865]

I thought it was based on the price of BTC at the beginning of each quarter?

It's a comparison of the lowest price seen in the quarter vs the basis price TSLA bought it at. You have to know both numbers to figure out if there is "impairment".

Maybe the basis price is adjusted per quarter (buy price + any prior impairments, adjust for any sales in between and such)

 

[StealthP3D]

Having only the rear wheels driven make a (legacy) pickup more vulnerable to traction problems when there is no load. Turns on wet roads, climbing loose surface hills, etc. Granted, Tesla and others can apply traction control measures to deal with this, but it is a compromise.

Most pickups, most of the time, have no load in the back (because they are used primarily as grocery-getters). Granted, things like extended cabs and short beds help get more weight on the rear axle, but the traction issue does exist most of the time for most pickup owners.

AWD solves that, and Tesla is all about safety. (which may be another reason for dropping the Single Motor model)

The only reason for legacy OEMs to make a RWD pickup is to save adding the cost of the 4WD parts to the sticker. It saves the buyer thousands, and most never know the difference for the most common tasks it is used for.

If the CT is going to have 2 motors or 4 motors then the cost of only making AWD versions is likely absorbed in economy of scale from not having to support RWD production and dealing with unique parts. (Best part is what? Right, no part.)

Full disclosure, my reservation is for a 2 motor AWD model.

I think you have some unintentional ICE bias in your perspective here. We have a RWD Model 3 with only one motor which I've driven in all conditions. On ice, snow, wet grass, mud, leaves, sand and gravel, it is nothing like an ICE RWD sedan due to the lack of a front engine, more like a mid-engine sports car. That's what weight distribution can do. I also have a 4x4 F-150 so I'm well aware of the limitations of an ICE pickup when in RWD mode. But a RWD Cybertruck would be crazy better even if it only had one motor on the rear axle due to the much better weight distribution.

However, there is another advantage of a two motor RWD EV that neither ICE nor our RWD Model 3 has, independent motor control. The F-150 is essentially one wheel drive (in RWD mode), even it's mechanical limited slip differential doesn't make it 2WD. So is the RWD Model 3, at least until the electronic aids pulse the brakes to control the spin of the rear wheel. On the other hand, independent motors on each rear wheel with nearly perfect weight distribution and instantaneous electronic torque modulation of each rear wheel individually would make a RWD Cybertruck in another league from any RWD ICE pick-up. It would be like they were from different planets. The Cybertruck with twin rear motors would be a seriously nice driving machine even climbing some relatively challenging hills or towing a heavy trailer on slippery surfaces because weight transfers to the drive wheels when you need the extra traction (climbing and towing).

Would it be as good as AWD? Actually, it would be considerably better than some AWD vehicles, specifically ICE AWD that have open differentials. Which is a lot of them. Because they are essentially 2WD powertrains in slippery conditions limited to the traction of the one front tire and the one rear tire that has the least amount of traction.

All of my Cybertruck orders are for AWD versions but a RWD version with independent rear motors would be a stunningly good all-around performer, even for light to moderate off-pavement duty.

 

[StealthP3D]

In any case, it is shocking nothing has improved for several years.

And that really puts a damper on dreams of suspension nirvana...

/s

Actually, I have high hopes the Cybertruck will have a revolutionary suspension for a pick-up truck, not only in the adjustable ride height but also automatic, computer-controlled dampers for on-the-fly damping adjustments. When Elon mentioned it would have fully adjustable suspension, I took that to likely mean adjustable rate and adjustable damping in addition to the ride-height adjustment. We shall see. The benefits would be huge even for people that think they don't care about suspensions.

 

[Buckminster]

Seems like 10.6 is here:
So are we expecting 10.6 Sunday?

 

[FS_FRA]

Ich bin kein Audi - das ist ein Automobil - sondern Audie.

Mein namen ist kein Autobahn - das ist eine Strasse - sondern Audubon.

Phonetically you’re very close to my Frankfurter dialect for Autobahn