Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[15Peter20]

You led storm Mary. You led, and it matters.

 

[SmokyPeat]

You led storm Mary. You led, and it matters.

At least there's one Barra that deserves to be taken seriously.

 

[inconel]

You led storm Mary. You led, and it matters.

What I want to know is if this storm will hit Shortville ;-)

 

[chiller]

I'm trying to get some clarity on Elons options. From the proxy statement back in 2012, the CEO grant was for 5,274,901 shares (26,374,505 post split).
As far as I have seen, bofer November, the he had only exercised 175,000 of them (back in 2019, would be 875,000 post split). With those exercised since November, it would leave him with 14,837,378 options from that original 2012 CEO grant.

If he is to exercise the rest of those options, in roughly the same sizes, we are still waiting for 6 or 7 exercise + sell-days.
My personal bet is on 6 more rounds because that would bring the total of times to 11, and 11 x 934091 is a somewhat of a round number: 10,275,001.

10,2M + the ones he has sold outside of his 10b5 (5.4M) is close to his 10% stated selling.

Does anyone know if my numbers are wrong?

 

[Mike Ambler]

I will refrain from posting in this thread.

Please don't!

 

[VValleyEV]

During the last couple of days I'vv had a few messages with kind comments. Perhaps I should explain myself a trifle better than I did.
As I reflect I recall a comment made to me by my favorite boss as he was preparing to retire:
a loose paraphrase was 'after a certain age one's experience and judgement no longer serve to guide other younger people. When that happens it is time to go.'
I have been posting on TMC for a bit more than six years. During that time I have advocated the same positions in slightly different ways, but the basic ideas have not changed. I have been acutely aware of repeating myself.

One of my young colleagues mentioned that "...for an old guy you're surprisingly well informed." (Translated from the Portuguese). She intended it as a compliment, perhaps. Still, I make many typos, itself not a mark of vibrance and good habits. Then I realize I persist in repeating the same stories. I justify that because the people who gave us 2008 are ones who very nearly brought on global depression, narrowly averted by good luck rather than good judgement. I keep thinking if younger people would understand that and other such lessons they would be better investors. if my assertion was valid the oldsters would have learned also, but we all know they haven't. A recent stay on Hank Paulson's island reminded me that there is no plausible assertion that there is any causal relation to be had between cause and effect in 2008 or any other year.

With those thoughts I realized I should stop now, not because of rancor, but because I am repeating myself.

So, I know those positions are valid. I know nearly all retail 'investors' using margin, puts, cals and other such instruments will eventually lose. The house wins, if anybody does. That is the last time I will post such positions simply to stop repeating myself.

I will not depart TMC nor will I stop reading pertinent parts of these threads, and continue rating posts, but not with words. I will refrain from posting in this thread.

Damn. You will be sorely missed.

I still say that there will continue to be constant twists and turns and surprises, about which your take would be most valuable.

So, “never say never”.

 

[tivoboy]

Not even close. Tesla's basis is in the 20s or so.

I think there is some additional accounting that they have to mark for this other than only if its UP since purchase.. they have had impairment already this year and technically, I think their position vs. entry would still be considered in the black? Maybe only if they had done some selling?

 

[dl003]

I think there is some additional accounting that they have to mark for this other than only if its UP since purchase.. they have had impairment already this year and technically, I think their position vs. entry would still be considered in the black? Maybe only if they had done some selling?

The moment Tesla recorded the impairment loss, its original basis got replaced by a new, lower basis at which the loss occurred. For Tesla to record another impairment loss, BTC has to dip even further beyond this new basis. On the other hand, if Tesla sells its BTCs, it will realize a bigger gain since the cost basis is now lower. I’m not sure if Tesla ever recorded an impairment loss. Didn’t we have some drama over a ~100m BTC realized gain?

 

[elasalle]

So, I know those positions are valid. I know nearly all retail 'investors' using margin, puts, cals and other such instruments will eventually lose. The house wins, if anybody does. That is the last time I will post such positions simply to stop repeating myself.

Only part I don't agree with - sometimes old dogs need to learn new tricks
(+ per your posts I think you are super wealthy, and wealthy people have more inertia in their assets, need less momentum and don't need to take more risks - that doesn't apply for all as well)

Times have changed - right now Options trading volume is more that stock trading volume, the tail is wagging the dog.
With serious study, strategy and some good luck - options can be used as a tool, same for margin as well.

Best Wishes!!

 

[Big Time]

During the last couple of days I'vv had a few messages with kind comments. Perhaps I should explain myself a trifle better than I did.
As I reflect I recall a comment made to me by my favorite boss as he was preparing to retire:
a loose paraphrase was 'after a certain age one's experience and judgement no longer serve to guide other younger people. When that happens it is time to go.'
I have been posting on TMC for a bit more than six years. During that time I have advocated the same positions in slightly different ways, but the basic ideas have not changed. I have been acutely aware of repeating myself.

One of my young colleagues mentioned that "...for an old guy you're surprisingly well informed." (Translated from the Portuguese). She intended it as a compliment, perhaps. Still, I make many typos, itself not a mark of vibrance and good habits. Then I realize I persist in repeating the same stories. I justify that because the people who gave us 2008 are ones who very nearly brought on global depression, narrowly averted by good luck rather than good judgement. I keep thinking if younger people would understand that and other such lessons they would be better investors. if my assertion was valid the oldsters would have learned also, but we all know they haven't. A recent stay on Hank Paulson's island reminded me that there is no plausible assertion that there is any causal relation to be had between cause and effect in 2008 or any other year.

With those thoughts I realized I should stop now, not because of rancor, but because I am repeating myself.

So, I know those positions are valid. I know nearly all retail 'investors' using margin, puts, cals and other such instruments will eventually lose. The house wins, if anybody does. That is the last time I will post such positions simply to stop repeating myself.

I will not depart TMC nor will I stop reading pertinent parts of these threads, and continue rating posts, but not with words. I will refrain from posting in this thread.

Echoing the sentiment of many here, hoping you reconsider. Your posts are as welcome as any, if not more.

Knowledge is key. Alternate viewpoints is key. If we all agree, THATS when its time to go, not now. When we disagree that's when we learn what others viewpoints are and hopefully are able to be in their shoes for a moment to see WHY they disagree and continue to LEARN.

Thats what it's all about.

 

[Causalien]

During the last couple of days I'vv had a few messages with kind comments. Perhaps I should explain myself a trifle better than I did.
As I reflect I recall a comment made to me by my favorite boss as he was preparing to retire:
a loose paraphrase was 'after a certain age one's experience and judgement no longer serve to guide other younger people. When that happens it is time to go.'
I have been posting on TMC for a bit more than six years. During that time I have advocated the same positions in slightly different ways, but the basic ideas have not changed. I have been acutely aware of repeating myself.

One of my young colleagues mentioned that "...for an old guy you're surprisingly well informed." (Translated from the Portuguese). She intended it as a compliment, perhaps. Still, I make many typos, itself not a mark of vibrance and good habits. Then I realize I persist in repeating the same stories. I justify that because the people who gave us 2008 are ones who very nearly brought on global depression, narrowly averted by good luck rather than good judgement. I keep thinking if younger people would understand that and other such lessons they would be better investors. if my assertion was valid the oldsters would have learned also, but we all know they haven't. A recent stay on Hank Paulson's island reminded me that there is no plausible assertion that there is any causal relation to be had between cause and effect in 2008 or any other year.

With those thoughts I realized I should stop now, not because of rancor, but because I am repeating myself.

So, I know those positions are valid. I know nearly all retail 'investors' using margin, puts, cals and other such instruments will eventually lose. The house wins, if anybody does. That is the last time I will post such positions simply to stop repeating myself.

I will not depart TMC nor will I stop reading pertinent parts of these threads, and continue rating posts, but not with words. I will refrain from posting in this thread.

I too have retired from predicting near term movements.

Tesla stock movements today doesn't work with the same mindset that we had in the beginning.

 

[dl003]

I just want to say that we need all hands on deck for the next 2 months. With the new variant, the end of QE looming, and huge volatility around Q4 ER, this is not the time we can afford to lose any voice of reasoning around here. We still need you more than ever @jbcarioca.

 

[mongo]

The moment Tesla recorded the impairment loss, its original basis got replaced by a new, lower basis at which the loss occurred. For Tesla to record another impairment loss, BTC has to dip even further beyond this new basis. On the other hand, if Tesla sells its BTCs, it will realize a bigger gain since the cost basis is now lower. I’m not sure if Tesla ever recorded an impairment loss. Didn’t we have some drama over a ~100m BTC realized gain?

There was an impairment taken in Q1 just after purchase and another in Q3.
From Q3 10Q

During the nine months ended September 30, 2021, we purchased and received $1.50 billion of bitcoin. During the three and nine months ended September 30, 2021, we recorded $51 million and $101 million, respectively, of impairment losses on such digital assets. We also realized gains of $128 million in March 2021. Such gains are presented net of impairment losses in Restructuring and other in the consolidated statement of operations. As of September 30, 2021, the carrying value of our digital assets held was $1.26 billion, which reflects cumulative impairments of $101 million. The fair market value of such digital assets held as of September 30, 2021 was $1.83 billion.

For reference, BTC was $48.1k on Sept 30th, $800 less that the listed price at the time of this post.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Bravo Tesla FSD team!

OK, first hand, FSD Beta 10.6 is much improved from 10.5. The "Aggressive" setting is an understatement in most cases, but not everywhere as you'd expect (such as some creep to see laterally in general).

- There was a bug in exiting a specific Fry's parking lot before (didn't seem to want to stop), but this has been fixed.
- It stops on the line now at intersections. I only saw a couple on this drive, but it stopped right before the crosswalks.
- Acceleration is even better both through the turn and coming out.
- A bit less jerky steering at times, all still very low speed. Similar to 1st release FSD last year, getting better with time.
- I can engage earlier in the start of drive but then doesn't know what to do and throws a warning. (So still need to point in general direction, roll tires, establish the initial 3D model I can only assume.)
- No reverse or U-turns yet.
- A stop sign warning sign on the road appeared as a speed limit sign on screen (feature?). It did not slow down this time.

Hopefully it's not just over confident, but if this is measured and the risk has not changed statistically, then this is impressive. Many times it really did feel like I was driving in a hurry - again, I test on Aggressive mode; this is what I expect (not that I drive that way, just that it's fun to watch). I recorded it, but I'm new to the iPhone world (from Android) so eventually...

 

[dl003]

There was an impairment taken in Q1 just after purchase and another in Q3.
From Q3 10Q

For reference, BTC was $48.1k on Sept 30th, $800 less that the listed price at the time of this post.

The closing price on BTC on 9/30 isn't important. The impairment loss resulted from the lowest price of BTC recorded during a quarter. Looking at Q3, the lowest price seemed to be $29,789. Unless I've got this whole thing wrong, that is the current cost basis for Tesla.

 

[SN_8]

FSD now has the ability to recognize and use medians to complete turns across many lanes of traffic (with cars incoming on the opposite side of traffic). Fundamentally new behavior/abilities being introduced with 10.6

Interesting, and perhaps related to what I experienced this morning with FSD. The car was making a left turn from a parking lot onto a main road when the car stopped in the middle of the turn for an oncoming car from the right. The problem however was that there was not a wide enough median to safely allow for this and had there been another car coming from the left, I would have been in the way blocking traffic.

If this is from new functionality, it'll be 2 steps forward/1 back until median widths and associated actions can be better calculated.

All in all though, significant improvement in this update. First time I ever took a 20 minute drive with no interventions.

 

[Jack6591]

During the last couple of days I'vv had a few messages with kind comments. Perhaps I should explain myself a trifle better than I did.
As I reflect I recall a comment made to me by my favorite boss as he was preparing to retire:
a loose paraphrase was 'after a certain age one's experience and judgement no longer serve to guide other younger people. When that happens it is time to go.'
I have been posting on TMC for a bit more than six years. During that time I have advocated the same positions in slightly different ways, but the basic ideas have not changed. I have been acutely aware of repeating myself.

One of my young colleagues mentioned that "...for an old guy you're surprisingly well informed." (Translated from the Portuguese). She intended it as a compliment, perhaps. Still, I make many typos, itself not a mark of vibrance and good habits. Then I realize I persist in repeating the same stories. I justify that because the people who gave us 2008 are ones who very nearly brought on global depression, narrowly averted by good luck rather than good judgement. I keep thinking if younger people would understand that and other such lessons they would be better investors. if my assertion was valid the oldsters would have learned also, but we all know they haven't. A recent stay on Hank Paulson's island reminded me that there is no plausible assertion that there is any causal relation to be had between cause and effect in 2008 or any other year.

With those thoughts I realized I should stop now, not because of rancor, but because I am repeating myself.

So, I know those positions are valid. I know nearly all retail 'investors' using margin, puts, cals and other such instruments will eventually lose. The house wins, if anybody does. That is the last time I will post such positions simply to stop repeating myself.

I will not depart TMC nor will I stop reading pertinent parts of these threads, and continue rating posts, but not with words. I will refrain from posting in this thread.

Over the years, I have posted on this site that I view Tesla’s “Master Plan” as a fight between the fossil fuel industry and remedying climate change—a knife fight. Melodramatic, you betcha. That said, every time I get on a Southern California freeway, I witness a flowing river of gasoline powered cars; a continual flow of billions upon billions of dollars flowing to Exxon/Mobile, to OPEC.

Many argue that Tesla has defeated the automotive industry, defeated the fossil fuel industry. They aren’t dead yet.

@jbcarioca Don’t quit the fight.

 

[Opus BC fan]

One of my young colleagues mentioned that "...for an old guy you're surprisingly well informed." (Translated from the Portuguese). She intended it as a compliment, perhaps. Still, I make many typos, itself not a mark of vibrance and good habits. Then I realize I persist in repeating the same stories. I justify that because the people who gave us 2008 are ones who very nearly brought on global depression, narrowly averted by good luck rather than good judgement. I keep thinking if younger people would understand that and other such lessons they would be better investors. if my assertion was valid the oldsters would have learned also, but we all know they haven't. A recent stay on Hank Paulson's island reminded me that there is no plausible assertion that there is any causal relation to be had between cause and effect in 2008 or any other year.

With those thoughts I realized I should stop now, not because of rancor, but because I am repeating myself.

So, I know those positions are valid. I know nearly all retail 'investors' using margin, puts, cals and other such instruments will eventually lose. The house wins, if anybody does. That is the last time I will post such positions simply to stop repeating myself.

I will not depart TMC nor will I stop reading pertinent parts of these threads, and continue rating posts, but not with words. I will refrain from posting in this thread.

As an old guy, I like to have my memory refreshed now and then. Your input has been valued. Thanks.

 

[ZeApelido]

If I was a short seller, I would totally tried to get rid of intelligent posters like @jbcarioca @KarenRei @FactChecking, and promote useless jokesters like the rest of you on here.

 

[EVMeister]

If I was a short seller, I would totally tried to get rid of intelligent posters like @jbcarioca @KarenRei @FactChecking, and promote useless jokesters like the rest of you on here.

Harsh, but true. Without some of the truly knowledgeable people, this thread would be a much less informative place. But we enjoy a bit of humour as well, you need it as a TSLA investor... If that's all we have though.