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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Seems like 1050 is the line in the sand for right now and MM's hoping volume dries up.

Funny how Call Walls seem to have a lot more resistance than Put Walls. We fell through Put Walls like a knife going to through butter every week for the past 3-4 weeks. Hopefully the FOMO buying keeps up so they give up and try and protect the 100 Call Wall.

Edit: And we sliced through that nicely. I guess MM's are no match for Hedgies in both directions 😅
 
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As I look at the share price action again today, it is clear that Jim Farley/Ford aren't the only ones who got burned trying to play the 'Just In Time-game' with their inventory. Anyone trying to time the TSLA share inventory they needed for their portfolio down to the last days of Elon selling are also feeling like their business model is 'Not-In-Time' today as TSLA goes full-FOMO. There was clearly no penalty in hoarding shares at the end of last week instead of trying to time those buys for the end of this week and guessing what Elon would do, just as there was clearly no penalty had Ford decided to keep a few extra chips on the shelves for products they knew they would produce when the buying was good. Today is literally 'toilet paper hoarding' of TSLA shares as @Krugerrand explained with the perfect visual that I can't seem to un-see.

@Artful Dodger has reminded us with his CEO performance award graphs that this was all fairly forecastable. Thus I was drawn back into scrolling through James Stephenson's October 30th tweet-storm of his 20 Tesla forecast charts and graphs this morning to take a look at his visuals for the 2022 CEO Performance Award Quarterly Expense and his forecasted EBITDA by quarter (James' Twitter page is an easily accessible source of a wealth of TSLA information). And that was a fun reminder that the Machine that Builds the Machine has been working on building a money-printing press that is about to really get rolling just as the S-curve of CEO Performance Award expenses is tapering-down and the S-curve for Adjusted EBITDA by Quarter shoots past Max-Q and leaves the forces that had previously constrained Tesla growth velocity behind. The time to buy 2022 Q-1 TSLA share inventory has passed - let the bidding wars for TSLA shares begin.

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Hi folks,

Zooming out of stock sale events over the past 7 weeks, the larger picture is that Elon has created a forcing function for change on Wall St. regulation.

Simply by allowing hedge funds to 'front run' his options execution share sales, Elon is both paying LESS income tax, and denying the US Gov't those addtional funds. And as we see now, the SP value snaps back to pre-sale levels as soon as the selling is done, leaving both Elon's share count and net worth higher.

Going forward, the Legislative Branch now has two choices:
  1. continue to squirm as Elon takes an arbitary tax discount at his discression (he has more than sufficient volume of vested shares banked right now from the 2018 CEO comp. plan to create any discount he wants), or
  2. reform SEC rules so that selling by insider owners is done is a controlled, orderly fashion which DOES NOT roil the Market (ie: -25% for a 1% volume sale), damage shareholders, and cost the Gov't billions in income tax receipts
SMR hints at what is going on in this video. He doesn't quite get there, but this segment is worth a watch IMO:

Elon’s Musk’s 420 IQ Secret Tesla Stock Sale Strategy | SMR


In summary, Elon has effectively created a forcing function to create positve change in Government policy. Further, it would now be trivial to convince other Billionaire owners that they too can save a bundle on taxes by exercising their shares options in public, roil the market, short the Gov't, and influence public opinion.

Or, the U.S. Gov't can just make some simple changes in SEC regulations. Which do you think will happen first? ;)

Cheers!
 
Ah guys.....we HAVE to fill that gap from 930-970. Did you not get the memo??!?

Speaking of gap filling, I'm just sitting on my hands as we fill the reverse gap back up to $1200. Not worth buying anything, not worth selling anything. I'll make my 1% a week in the other thread, but nothing fun.

Gaps can go both ways hedgies! Shoulda thought of that before you shoved down so close to 4Q earnings. Maybe we just squeeze our way up to 1200 in the next week on low volume? That's the only place I can imagine anyone selling.
 
I am calling 1100 to be touched today!

Based on this I bought 20 DeC 23 1085 calls at 0.95.

Going to sell them for 10 a piece before the close.

Happy Gambling Teslanaires!
This is precisely the kind of irrational behavior we e been getting away from, and quite frankly I miss it. My prayers are with you. Be strong.