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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
No argument from me on your point. I'm not suggesting what we're going through these last two weeks is one of these once-in-a-decade events.
I was thinking about my definition of 'capitulation,' to which is what I was replying. Not all corrections/bear markets end in a capitulation. Very possible that this episode is an orderly correction from which we will slowly (or quickly) recover. But when folks say 'capitulation,' that to me means investors get so scared they sell everything with little regard for underlying fundamentals, price, etc. That's massive selling in an unorderly fashion, resulting in big declines on huge volume.
I'm not suggesting there will be a capitulation. I'm merely suggesting today did not feel like a capitulation.
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That gif is from The IT Crowd...The pinnacle of British Tech comedy: Watch The IT Crowd | NetflixAgreed!
It was just a normal day in the office for me.
I think the idea is that these big declines eventually end once people who are over leveraged get margin called and the banks take their shares at the bottom. Once they finish fleecing retail, the market can resume its upward trajectory.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Mainly agree, Market could languish until Wednesday's FED meeting though. Next obvious target for the hedgies is to retest the 3-month bottom, which was also the 'gap up' on Oct 22, 2021:
Also agree that this is a 'manufactured' correction in the Market: the suspicious shorting of 10-yr bonds has the fingerprints of hedgies all over it. If they can't attack TSLA, they'll just crash the Market instead (TSLA is now half the entire Options market, and Options are 10x the Equities market by volume)
Insert 'thug' voice-over: "Everyone can be gotten to"...
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, that wasn't the "covid crash". That was the "SEC su es E lon c rash". Played out over 3 mths (daily media for a b.s. suit) :/
I wonder if that’s the number one goal of those manufactures crashes
Yeah, I think that’s just their business model. That and screwing with options traders.
I think looming macro threats may also play a role here but are a convenient wrapper for the show you describe.
Number one goal is reverse robinhood.
Hedge funds/institutional investors have most of the shares. They write options for the gamblers who wants the gains but doesn't have the money for shares. Retail share holders either doesn't have enough shares or doesn't know how to write options.
So MM protects hedge funds and institutional investors from having their shares called away so they manufactured this crash. And I have a feeling this crash started since last March. I honestly don't think many of these ARKK high fliers are in the money after they destroyed over 70% of their share price. However many people used their stimulus money/covid savings and yoloed into out of the money leaps which most likely caused their share spiked up so high to begin with a year ago.
I think they are experts at fleecing option writers now too. I had to roll so many short puts lately that could have expired by a cent. And that was with me trying to anticipate the drop and rolling a bit lower
I know I've learned so much from this board when, during the last 2.5 weeks, I'm not stressed at all about the drop in stock price, but I am fretting about not having more available cash to deploy.
Sure, my BPSs that I started writing a few weeks ago are in trouble. Luckily, I am just starting to learn about this strategy so I feel fortunate to have started very small. It's been an incredibly great learning experience (basically tuition for an incredible real-life class). And I definitely feel for those who are leveraged with margin and/or are in significant short-term bullish options positions.
But my HODL shares and LEAPs are not concerned at all. With strength of conviction comes peace of mind.
Other than the specific BPS lesson, I hope I am able to learn and retain from January 2022 that the market is crazy and unpredictable. As sure as I was that TSLA would be up going into earnings, macro events can/will have a bigger impact on SP than fundamentals, at least for some period of time. Be safe, stay conservative, limit exposure to forced trades (margin calls, expiring options) and keep some powder dry for times like these. I find the last to be next to impossible. I keep convincing myself that I will miss out on the
ride.
Sure, my BPSs that I started writing a few weeks ago are in trouble. Luckily, I am just starting to learn about this strategy so I feel fortunate to have started very small. It's been an incredibly great learning experience (basically tuition for an incredible real-life class). And I definitely feel for those who are leveraged with margin and/or are in significant short-term bullish options positions.
But my HODL shares and LEAPs are not concerned at all. With strength of conviction comes peace of mind.
Other than the specific BPS lesson, I hope I am able to learn and retain from January 2022 that the market is crazy and unpredictable. As sure as I was that TSLA would be up going into earnings, macro events can/will have a bigger impact on SP than fundamentals, at least for some period of time. Be safe, stay conservative, limit exposure to forced trades (margin calls, expiring options) and keep some powder dry for times like these. I find the last to be next to impossible. I keep convincing myself that I will miss out on the
ride.
If the system can be gamed to enrich the big Wall Street boys, it WILL be rigged to do so.
They have been hiring MIT math wizards for years to wiggle every single angle they can.
Couple that with the revolving door that is the SEC/GS/MS/JPM and you have a playground where the fleecing of the innocent is child's play.
These people are without a shred of character or honesty.
I am not playing their game.
HODL. is the only way forward for me.
They have been hiring MIT math wizards for years to wiggle every single angle they can.
Couple that with the revolving door that is the SEC/GS/MS/JPM and you have a playground where the fleecing of the innocent is child's play.
These people are without a shred of character or honesty.
I am not playing their game.
HODL. is the only way forward for me.
I actually ended buying at 956. I guess I should have waited for After Hours....
Last time when Nasdaq was at today's level, Tsla was 600 bucks. We held on really well!
We just never know where the bottom is at. Someone called it earlier today... gone already.
Somebody wants our shares but can't have them. Boo-hoo.
Depends on how Monday goes, 940 during open or 936 AH will be the bottom. How many times have we seen Tsla bleed off AH and then it's positive the next am? Like almost every day.
From screening through all today’s posts, I see a majority buying shares, thinking we hit SP bottom. 1 think we will visit the 700s, 1 think we will visit the 800s. What will be the bottom?
Instead of having a poll on what will be the SP at the end of 2023, let’s see what TMC global brain thinks will be the price TSLA rebounds.
Poll
Instead of having a poll on what will be the SP at the end of 2023, let’s see what TMC global brain thinks will be the price TSLA rebounds.
Poll
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
When trying to increase your position, you buy value, not a presumed prediction of a bottom. Otherwise, if estimate the bottom is one dollar less than the actual bottom, you end up without the shares. It's a balancing act of getting as good of a price as possible while still actually getting the shares. You are almost guaranteed to pay more than the lowest price if you actually get the shares. And that's OK because it's how this game is played. People who are too concerned with getting the best possible deal often miss out on huge profits.
The lessons here are really not difficult at all:
Now we all would like to have TSLA for the stock price of 559, while the actual stock price is 959.
Well, we've had that moment in the past, then pointed out by many here.
Looking forward, sometime in the future we all will say exactly the same thing when the price is much higher: we would like some of those for 959.
All we need: a bit of stomach and a little patience.
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