Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Good point about QQQ volumes. I was just tracking TSLA volume. But triple witching day explains at least some of the increase in volume.

Today feels nothing like past capitulation days (October 1987, dot-com bust, COVID, etc.). I would look for 2-3x average number of shares on TSLA with plummeting SP (like 10%+). Today's action feels much more muted and orderly.

Anyway, just one ant-brain's opinion.

But those examples you listed are once in a decade type events………..this isn’t one of those. Was the market priced with a premium? Sure

But there’s literally nothing out there based on fundamentals that shows we’re even remotely in one of those situations. This is more akin to what happened in 2018 verses the Covid crash or the dot com crash. Thus I don’t think anyone should be expecting volume anywhere near those events

 

[Krugerrand]

Do you have a strong idea how they'll source the "precut blanks/sheets" and how easy/cheap transporting them might be?

I have a single reference point from thirty years ago when buying blanks and shipping across oceans was cheaper and easier than rolls. IIRC the avoidance of processing rolls was essential because shipping and handling rolls was difficult enough, but have the capacity to prove finished products was overwhelming expensive. At that time producing blanks at production site was 'relatively easy' in comparison.

Have we an idea how SpaceX handles that issue? Obviously that is tiny volume compared with Cybertruck.

These questions probably demand another thread, They seem to me to be central to the economics of Cybertruck construction. This, unless they have some major technological breakthrough, this seems rather a giant leap, does it not?

I’d assume the vendor/maker of the rolled SS would simply cut the material to size after it was rolled and ship on skids. No biggie. Or might be a ‘middleman’. So you have the foundry make the base SS and send it in coils to another company who rolls it 30xs and cuts blanks.

 

[Nocturnal]

We are down ~24%, which puts the ATH around ~35% above the current price.
Percentages are annoying, you need more gain than loss to get back to break even.

Yes, I was looking at it the wrong way. OK, we can drop a bunch more then.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Btw....just to point out. TSLA's trading improved dramatically throughout the day.

TSLA was underperforming the macro's about 5-6X, at one point underperforming 10X. TSLA closed under a 2X multiple of the Nasdaq. Huge improvement in trading action.

 

[Mengy]

What a brutal day. Everything looks to be diving lower in the AH too.

Here's hoping next week is a better week!

 

[tivoboy]

Good point about QQQ volumes. I was just tracking TSLA volume. But triple witching day explains at least some of the increase in volume.

Today feels nothing like past capitulation days (October 1987, dot-com bust, COVID, etc.). I would look for 2-3x average number of shares on TSLA with plummeting SP (like 10%+). Today's action feels much more muted and orderly.

Anyway, just one ant-brain's opinion.

Biggest options expiration in history is probably a more specific way to describe things. it HAD to be volatile.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Electrek is reporting limited production of customer cars by the end of the quarter. Production test cars are already underway, which probably explains the ones seen in the drone footage.

If this is the case, I think we may get a NFLX type reaction next Wednesday. The market wants the new factories NOW

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm thinking the same thing. I can see people mulling this week's action over the weekend, futures being very weak Sunday night, followed by peak fear/capitulation Monday morning, huge selling, followed by cooler heads swooping in after the dust settles. At least that's what I'm hoping happens.

That could be but I bought 200 more in the last minute of trading today at $944 on the possibility that the price could recover after weekend reflection.

 

[Thekiwi]

We are down ~24%, which puts the ATH around ~35% above the current price.
Percentages are annoying, you need more gain than loss to get back to break even.

Using that logic, then your Covid ”off” percentage should be 100%+ (since Tesla more than halved during that sell off)

 

[mongo]

Using that logic, then your Covid ”off” percentage should be 100%+ (since Tesla more than halved during that sell off)

Exactly, TSLA will gain up to 100% or more next week.
;-)
(Valid point, I didn't reread the post you were replying to)

 

[ZsoZso]

OK, are the kids done playing with their food now ?
Can we get the adults back to the (trading) table from Monday morning, please ?

 

[Todd Burch]

I think I'm battle hardened from holding TSLA for almost a decade now. This BS ain't even fazing me. Sorry Wall St. suits, your shizzle don't scare me no more.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I think I'm battle hardened from holding TSLA for almost a decade now. This BS ain't even phasing me. Sorry Wall St. suits, your shizzle don't scare me no more.

Only been holding for 5+ years but it sure doesn't faze me at all....The only thing i need to stop myself from is deploying the children's college fund pre-maturely

 

[Todd Burch]

Only been holding for 5+ years but it sure doesn't faze me at all....The only thing i need to stop myself from is deploying the children's college fund pre-maturely

Yeah, seriously considering selling my wife and kids to buy some more this afternoon, but after a family meeting where I shared my plan, they voted it down.

 

[raffiniert]

I think I'm battle hardened from holding TSLA for almost a decade now. This BS ain't even fazing me. Sorry Wall St. suits, your shizzle don't scare me no more.

I wish I could say the same
I'm holding since ever and will keep holding.
But it's like lifting a car when your child is under it - you do it, but afterwards you don't understand how you did it.

Keep strong everybody, we all know this is bs and the fundamentals look astronomical.

 

[H Mak]

I think I'm battle hardened from holding TSLA for almost a decade now. This BS ain't even fazing me. Sorry Wall St. suits, your shizzle don't scare me no more.

I think pretty much everyone on this forum feels the same. We are the lucky ones. For me a big drop in the price means a buying opportunity (I bought today) and a relax on your favourite armchair with pipe and slippers. We know what's what.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Tesla dropped a little less than 50% during the covid crash, but right now we are 35% off ATH. Seems overdone.

Edit,
Carplay is inferior to the Tesla native infotainment.

Unfortunately that’s not quite correct. During the Covid crash in early 2020 TSLA dropped from an ATH of 960 to 350 (pre-split), which is 63% down. I remember because I bought more shares at 360

 

[OrthoSurg]

35%?

High was $1243, so current price would be around 24% off ATH.

We are 21% down from Jan 3rd when the Fed announced they were raising rates. This is what I would call over reaction.

 

[phantasms]

Unfortunately that’s not quite correct. During the Covid crash in early 2020 TSLA dropped from an ATH of 960 to 350 (pre-split), which is 63% down. I remember because I bought more shares at 360

That's the day to time travel to. I bought some that day as well but, looking back, should have bought a whole lot more. lol

 

[WADan]

I wish I could say the same
I'm holding since ever and will keep holding.
But it's like lifting a car when your child is under it - you do it, but afterwards you don't understand how you did it.

Keep strong everybody, we all know this is bs and the fundamentals look astronomical.

Yes I hope this boat is strong, but let’s not celebrate prematurely. And I’ve done my part of buying today.