Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chunky Jr.]

I think the market is having a temper tantrum because of several things:
1) no $25K car. They were expecting this to get to 20M/yr volume and don't understand that it might not be necessary
2) no Cybertruck this year. They don't understand that it would make Tesla less profitable to focus on that now given the insane demand and margins on Model Y
3) Focus on Optimus in call. They see it as a distraction rather than an R&D project with tons of potential.

Basically what the market wants to hear Tesla say is "we're just like other auto manufacturers and making a bunch of different cars!". What they heard instead is "we're not at all like other auto manufacturers and will be way, way more diversified and profitable". They don't know how to process the latter.

Eventually the market will wise up and regret selling their shares.

 

[Unpilot]

Can you imagine if this was a bad macro day!

 

[phoggy123]

So do you think when they announced the CT they imagined that there would be a world wide pandemic that made parts and logistics a global crisis? JFC some of you baffle me on this forum. My god, these people made the first global car company that turns a massive profit in 100 years. Get a grip and buy the Friggin dip. Why do I even spend time on this thread?

 

[JRitt]

Wow . . just Wow
I was about to post my thoughts on the Earnings Call but this trumps every thought I had.
Why the hell have you been lurking for so long? This post was great. Please post more.

Lol...thank you very much! I appreciate the warm welcome. I've been part of many aftermarket autmotive forums over the years and always enjoy the camaraderie. I haven't posted here much due to a lack of time. Between business and family, I'm usually planning my days in 30-minute blocks. However, for 2022 I promised myself that I'd chill out a bit. I will try to post more here as time allows. Thanks again for the kind words, and for your continued contributions to this community.

 

[nativewolf]

Think bigger.

Optimus won't:

1. Shoot other employees in the parking lot (a la recent Fremont murder).
2. Sue, and win HUGE awards, for discrimination lawsuits (while trying to get family members hired at the "oppressive environment" Tesla; can't make this stuff up).
3. Complain about a 24/7 work schedule.
4. Get tired.
5. Take vacations.
6. Require medical insurance.

Optimus moves the needle at Tesla by being a force multiplier, allowing for greater production with less humans, especially the kind of humans that sometimes get hired, but shouldn't have been . . . .

In reverse order: Feed a family, enjoy vacations, have enthusiasm, inspire fellow workers, and did you not see irobot?

 

[ZachF]

If Tesla had a demand problem they would already have released these products in whatever state they are, and with whatever production mechanisms they could cobble together.
Instead, they have a backlog of about a year for products they can build very profitably, while having the time to tweak the new products and the corresponding production. It’s more money this year (build what you have at very good margins now) and more money next year (build the new products better and cheaper). What‘s not to like?
I’m pretty sure, should the environment change to something that resembles a demand problem, these new products would become suddenly available much sooner.

This is of course all logical, but short term market swings are more often based on emotion than logic.

Logically 2022 PE of <60 with >50% CAGR is a bargain.

 

[jeewee3000]

I'm baffled by the many salty responses regarding the call, because Elon didn't talk fluff like "You led - GM - Mary" and the like.

Elon shared his vision, the vision that got me invested in TSLA in 2015 when I first stumbled upon the first master plan. The second master plan is coming to fruition this year and the next, but the stock price is down so the call was a flop in some people's eyes.

What would you do if TSLA was up 8% instead of down, sell? Of course not, you'd complain about how ATH must be reached NOW.

Such impatience and lack of faith in the Tesla team, really astounding (and disappointing). It's a shame to have to scroll through all those negative, not value-adding comments but I have to in order to pick out the gold nuggets in the dirt coming from valued members that aren't scared that easily. They know who they are.

Cheers to the longs. And to the negative nancy's: the door is over there.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Elon should have told us why he is so bullish on FSD, and not just from a cost perspective. Is there exponential growth in the number of users having 0 intervention drives? Are there thousands of FSD Beta testers choosing to let the car drive in places they used to drive manually? How is the march of 9’s progressing? Etc. Instead he chose the “ye of little faith” approach.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

You know you guys can sell, right? If you don't like Elon's scattered tone there's always GM, they're right on point with every presentation!

Here we go again. Why is this always the go to response? People are allowed to be critical of the company/Elon yet still believe in them long term. Please stop with this “then sell your stock” BS. It’s getting old.

 

[nativewolf]

So do you think when they announced the CT they imagined that there would be a world wide pandemic that made parts and logistics a global crisis? JFC some of you baffle me on this forum. My god, these people made the first global car company that turns a massive profit in 100 years. Get a grip and buy the Friggin dip. Why do I even spend time on this thread?

Because most on here are speculating, they pretend they are investing...but they are speculating. They check the stock price every hour or 2x an hour. As you say, buy the dip. That's why you keep 10-20% of your assets in cash. Today is when you buy.

 

[Artful Dodger]

well, on the bright side, there’s still ~12-24 months!

i do think it’s pointless to reveal now and take millions of orders, only to make everyone wait 2 years.

It's a messaging issue: all E. needed to say was something like:

"Tesla only makes profitable cars. When the time is right, and the Market is ready, we will make MILLIONS of these cars at Tesla-level profitability".​

Drop the Mic., go home. Instead, we got 'FSD so nutty'... WFT?

 

[Chunky Jr.]

So do you think when they announced the CT they imagined that there would be a world wide pandemic that made parts and logistics a global crisis? JFC some of you baffle me on this forum. My god, these people made the first global car company that turns a massive profit in 100 years. Get a grip and buy the Friggin dip. Why do I even spend time on this thread?

Cybertruck isn't being delayed due to parts shortages and logistics. It's because there is still a lot of engineering that needs to be done. Elon said it has a lot of new technology and they are still figuring out how to make it work in a way that is affordable.

 

[canoemore]

Regarding lower growth from automotive past 2024...

Didn't they say they're intending to build more factories around 2024? If we assume terminal capacity from their current factories at ~4.5 million units (something like 500k Fremont, 1m Shanghai, 1.5m Berlin, 1.5m Austin), that fuels 50% annual growth into 2025, no? (1.5m 2022, 2.25m 2023, 3.375m 2024. Add 2 more factories coming online in 2024-2025 (as I believe were referenced in the call) w/ combined capacity of 3M, and that gets you through to 2027 (5m 2025, 7.5m 2026).

I feel like concerns about missing the 50% growth target due to declining automotive growth would be more well-founded if they weren't clearly planning continued capacity expansion.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

It's a messaging issue: all E. needed to say was something like:

"Tesla only makes profitable cars. When the time is right, and the Market is ready, we will make MILLIONS of these cars at Tesla-level profitability".​

Drop the Mic., go home. Instead, we got 'FSD so nutty'... WFT?

Then sell your stock /s

 

[mongo]

Golly!
Every? other OEM is reporting that can't make their current products and people are complaining that Tesla reported that, while they are going to make 50% more of their current product next year, they are waiting a year to introduce the new product lines.

2022 will get the kinks out of the new lines. Execution will exceed. Launch will be orbital.

 

[aronth5]

Elon sounded frustrated with the lack of appreciation for autonomy, but I can't blame people too much. It's been a long time coming. Casual observers will just see years of promises and not understand the progress and challenges.

Early results only but when 90% of users on a Tesla forum don't believe level 4 autonomous driving will be a reality this year Elon has a credibility problem to overcome. Hopefully this year will demonstrate significant progress.
Post Elon Update Poll on FSD

​

 

[Budding]

Just a couple years ago for battery day, they talked about the lower priced model. Obviously things changed and MY is a big hit so I understand if Tesla wants to prioritize that now. Now, this might change after another 2 years and they might go for the cheaper model (maybe 35k rather than 25k). Heck, they might sell a 25k subcompact which you can only buy with FSD. Elon could have easily said, we are looking at other options in the future but now our focus is on the current lineup. He could have said our current lineup will easily meet demand for the next couple years and leave it there. There was no need to bring FSD into that question. Elon has talked about FSD so much and I think he has lost credibility with Wall Street about that. I think over time, wall street has learned to ignore that since the timelines keep getting pushed out. But then to say that future growth is coming from FSD, is going to scare away bigger investors. Frankly, there was nothing earth-shattering on the call that needed Elon to be there. I think the fact that he came back also raised (positive) expectations. Moving forward, I think the call is best handled by others because Elon tends to start going off on tangents (Bot) which is not want institutions want to hear. He is excellent at so many things, but this is not one of his strong suits. He engages with Tesla enthusiasts and investors on social media which is great and unlike any other CEO.

 

[jeewee3000]

Elon should have told us why he is so bullish on FSD, and not just from a cost perspective. Is there exponential growth in the number of users having 0 intervention drives? Are there thousands of FSD Beta testers choosing to let the car drive in places they used to drive manually? How is the march of 9’s progressing? Etc. Instead he chose the “ye of little faith” approach.

Elon explained that here:

Any TSLA investor should've seen this.

 

[Boomer19]

It's a messaging issue: all E. needed to say was something like:

"Tesla only makes profitable cars. When the time is right, and the Market is ready, we will make MILLIONS of these cars at Tesla-level profitability".​

Drop the Mic., go home. Instead, we got 'FSD so nutty'... WFT?

oh i get it. and agree. i posted something similar myself during the call. it was puzzling.

 

[Drax7]

FSD like Mars seems borderline fantasia to the market.
Pivoting from a car manufacturing company to a software company
is too abstract.

For long term investors this was an exceptional qtr with even
more exceptional ones to follow. The 4 factories can achieve production of about
3 million cars during 2023. 3 million cars should imply about 30 billion in profits.