Elon Musk=John GaltPlease don't deify Elon. He is not god.
God v2? Maybe ...
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
There has been a lot of talk about the cause of Thursdays drop, and I felt inclined to add my 2 cents.
First I think it's really important to point out that those of us with high price "targets" it's tempting to think that a rocketing share price is indicative of the market broadly finally coming around to see things the way we do. And therefore big pushes back down have to be manipulation / bear raid etc. I know this isn't a universally held view, but I think it's way off the mark. An interesting thought exercise is what is the price of TSLA would be if the market were only large institutional investors. I'd argue it wouldn't be 1200, and chart of the share price would look a lot more linear.
Personally I think the reaction Thursday is a product of four main things.
I also think Elon should stay away from the earnings call
Lastly I do think there is a window in the short term to see this mix of factors turn collectively positive one more time. Though I'm personally doubtful it's enough for a new all time high.
First I think it's really important to point out that those of us with high price "targets" it's tempting to think that a rocketing share price is indicative of the market broadly finally coming around to see things the way we do. And therefore big pushes back down have to be manipulation / bear raid etc. I know this isn't a universally held view, but I think it's way off the mark. An interesting thought exercise is what is the price of TSLA would be if the market were only large institutional investors. I'd argue it wouldn't be 1200, and chart of the share price would look a lot more linear.
Personally I think the reaction Thursday is a product of four main things.
- Lack of retail investors buying the dip. Those who follow the market more broadly may have seen this discussed elsewhere. It can't be proven really, but there seems to be a big slowdown in broad retail interest in the market. One way this could be manifesting itself is in a decrease in call buying. Both call and put buying, when done in size, can substantially move the price. I believe @generalenthu pointed out net deltas (the effective amount of shares "held" by those with options, taking into consideration puts and calls) is at the lowest it's been in a long time. I think many people took their gains from their Jan 22 LEAPs and went home.
- HFs/momentum players who play for short term moves. I don't have a lot to add here, other than there is certainly a group that plays for the run up to earnings and sells after.
- Macro environment. The reality is, dumb or not to us, in a rising rate environment future cash flows are worth less. Multiples contract. People don't want to be holding names like TSLA as much as they did previously. But it's not just that, the market is scared. Fear is in the air, the VIX has been hovering at a pretty high level. Even if TSLA at 800 seems like a good deal to the market broadly, at the margin there just won't be the larger funds ready to step up and buy the dip when the market as a whole is so uncertain.
- Put buyers. This is the closest thing to the "shortzies/bear raid" nonsense I think actually exists. This concept is known to many, but the classic gamma squeezes of AMC, GME and even TSLA can just as well work in reverse. If someone buys puts, the dealer they bought them from will sell short a number of shares appropriate to hedge themselves. That number of shares is determined by the time to expiration, the volatility, and how close to the money they are.
I also think Elon should stay away from the earnings call
Lastly I do think there is a window in the short term to see this mix of factors turn collectively positive one more time. Though I'm personally doubtful it's enough for a new all time high.
I do worry about these things. As the transition starts to significantly impact petro-profits, what will the reaction be? So far, (we speculate) it has consisted of rather covert media and stock market manipulation -FUD and damage to company and personnel reputations.You really don't even need the movie. Big oil did the following, quite blatantly and obviously:
1. - Deposed democratically elected Mohammed Mossadegh, Premier of Iran because he had the audacity to nationalize The British oil holdings.
As this shows Kermit Roosevelt led the final solution. FWIW Kermit Was later an emissary to some Gulf States from The Chase Manhattan Bank.
64 Years Later, CIA Finally Releases Details of Iranian Coup
New documents reveal how the CIA attempted to call off the failing coup — only to be salvaged at the last minute by an insubordinate…foreignpolicy.com
David Rockefeller, Chairman of Chase at the time wandered the Gulf States.
The young Shah became deeply connected with the Rockefeller family and US oil interests.64 Years Later, CIA Finally Releases Details of Iranian Coup
New documents reveal how the CIA attempted to call off the failing coup — only to be salvaged at the last minute by an insubordinate…
2.- while the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia officially is dated from 1932, the discovery of oil by Chevron which established a joint venture called Aramco. From that day forward deep involvement in Saudi political affairs was driven by Aramco. Much of that has been rewritten for public consumption.
The list goes on.
Any modestly inquisitive person during the 1960's and 1970's who also lived in the Gulf, Iran or the levant anywhere has tons of personal stories about those events.
Not much of the reality has ever been publicly reported except in fictionalized versions.
FWIW, the very creation of Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria were all post World Wa II spoils distribution. That included putting a foreigner with no connection to what was named Iraq, another one in what became Jordan. At the time the connection to the massively expanding oilfields were driving forces.
As we consider the resistance to Tesla just think that these forces stop at nothing to maintain the status quo, even selling 'clean' hydrogen extracted from natural gas. There is much more powerful opposition to clean energy than we really can imagine.
my apologies. I really try to avoid these discussions. They are, however front and center behind Tesla opposition.
But could things get more overt? The attacks by politicians on Elon and the hostility of the current US administration towards Tesla could have other motivations, but I find it worrisome. What’s next? Physical violence toward Tesla facilities and personnel?
Sorry, quarantined with the o, so have too much time to think.
so the fact that more than a dozen of price targets of WS analysts average out at $1,201 or so is indicative of ...?
I think we should really put this " Elon shouldn't be on conference calls" to rest. The man build to company to where it is today, exceeding expectations when it comes to all financial measures and execution. So to see all these share holders crapping on him and want him to fade away from Tesla is heart breaking for the guy. That's just selfish beyond words while he spends his health for us shareholders everyday by working to death.
lafrisbee
Active Member
This may be old, and not that relevant to the stock price, but it will amuse The Terminator worriers. When I taught Biology I did the normal "What is Life?" lecture. Reproduce and Repair itself were two of the requirements.
I need to say nothing else.
He's not John Galt and he's not Tony Stark, and political commentary doesn't belong in this thread.
And Ayn Rand died drunk and alone, on Social Security.
Much of your post sounds reasonable but...
Members here with access to higher level trading data regularly report stock manipulation by large sell orders that are withdrawn before execution (capping, spoofing). Also, @Curt Renz posted many times an old video of Jim Cramer explaining how bear raids are done.
What evidence do you have that bear raids don't exist?
Post's like this are why I vacillate between unbridled optimism....and looming despair.You really don't even need the movie. Big oil did the following, quite blatantly and obviously:
1. - Deposed democratically elected Mohammed Mossadegh, Premier of Iran because he had the audacity to nationalize The British oil holdings.
As this shows Kermit Roosevelt led the final solution. FWIW Kermit Was later an emissary to some Gulf States from The Chase Manhattan Bank.64 Years Later, CIA Finally Releases Details of Iranian Coup
New documents reveal how the CIA attempted to call off the failing coup — only to be salvaged at the last minute by an insubordinate…
David Rockefeller, Chairman of Chase at the time wandered the Gulf States.
The young Shah became deeply connected with the Rockefeller family and US oil interests.64 Years Later, CIA Finally Releases Details of Iranian Coup
New documents reveal how the CIA attempted to call off the failing coup — only to be salvaged at the last minute by an insubordinate…
2.- while the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia officially is dated from 1932, the discovery of oil by Chevron which established a joint venture called Aramco. From that day forward deep involvement in Saudi political affairs was driven by Aramco. Much of that has been rewritten for public consumption.
The list goes on.
Any modestly inquisitive person during the 1960's and 1970's who also lived in the Gulf, Iran or the levant anywhere has tons of personal stories about those events.
Not much of the reality has ever been publicly reported except in fictionalized versions.
FWIW, the very creation of Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria were all post World Wa II spoils distribution. That included putting a foreigner with no connection to what was named Iraq, another one in what became Jordan. At the time the connection to the massively expanding oilfields were driving forces.
As we consider the resistance to Tesla just think that these forces stop at nothing to maintain the status quo, even selling 'clean' hydrogen extracted from natural gas. There is much more powerful opposition to clean energy than we really can imagine.
my apologies. I really try to avoid these discussions. They are, however front and center behind Tesla opposition.
lafrisbee
Active Member
Humans literally exist to be a test dummy for a "new" computer code to see if it can survive under current situations and conditions. And to create "new code" for the next experiment. PERIOD.
we tie our shoes wrong... we can't open jars. we drink too damn much. we don't take down our xmas decorations in a timely fashion. And can't remember *sugar*. And in the last two lines I have typed I hit so many keys on the keyboard wrong that your guess is almost as good as mine.
And now to a point I have every day... As humans were are programmed to be forgiving of our own shortcomings, and failures. But we don't offer blanket forgiveness to other humans. and don't accept any failure in machines/robots.
This morning, once again I put my tea bag in my wife's cup (No symbolism). She drinks herbal crap. I however caught myself before I poured the water.
I would have questioned how unreliable a robot was if it did that. And on the days I don't catch myself? or Optimus screws up? All day every day I don't do what I wanted. And I adjust to my failures on the fly. Actually most of my movements are failures, but in the end the task is done.
And to point one of your own failures... "robot bot"? God forbid a robot make such a clusterFugar of the human language.
Or they know something about robotics and understand that nobody has solved the fundamental problem of replicating humanoid robots and that is the human hand. The entire market is down and has most techs have been getting crushed for a while. So when the CEO sort of ignores the glowing success of the last year and starts ...again...talking about FSD (where Tesla has failed to deliver) and then further doubles down on another unproven revenue source (bots) that might cause some to take some profits as well. In particular when the plans for 2025-2030 are much less clear today than they might have hoped.
So many posts on the investor forum about bots and how great they will be. NOBODY has solved the problem of replicating the hand. Self healing, replicating tactile surface is proving very very hard to replicate. Not MIT, not Boston Dynamics, not any one of dozens of leading edge Korea robotic companies. The NN is neat, super. Those are done in labs already. Replicating that mechanically is a challenge. Not to dump ice water on people's dreams but c'mon. Look at FSD where Tesla was hardly in a leadership position, discounted the difficulty, and has still failed to provide a solution that would get close to L4 capability. That's still some time away. That's with something that is technically challenging but within Teslas wheelhouse (cars). Boston Dynamics has been working trying to figure out the hand for a while and ..nada. My last statement on this: Tesla has no special competency or differentiator when it comes to robotics. None. Why someone would think it is going to drive huge revenue is beyond me. Teslas track record on solving hard to solve issues is sort of spotty. Octovalve was the biggest success so far. Maybe someone in Tesla will one day figure out skin. Who knows?
I refer you to the currently unfolding case of Daimler. Now rebranding purely to Mercedes-Benz, going “fully electric”, and a CEO who just talks about increasing their multiple (who cares about execution right Mary?). All after carving out their profitable truck business.
$1,201 discounted back 12 months at your chosen discount rate (likely 11-12% right now). So about $1,070.
LOL, but character assassination does? And what bearing do those things have on the John Galt discussion?
It appears you are posting to this forum, but not reading it. That wastes everyone's time.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
Edit:
My idea for a self-healing robot hand: Unplug it and plug in a new one.
Last edited:
petit_bateau
Active Member
Indeed.
Here is a typical street in a European town. It is my street in my town, and the fact that it is in Europe would probably surprise 52% of voters, but that's not my concern. Inhabitants range from pensioners to surgeons, via electricians, engineers, teachers, drug-addicts, chemists. About half are house-owners, half renting. The average house price in this street is precisely the same as the national average. In short this is an utterly average town street. Go into a European (or Asian) large city and it gets a lot more congested.
This is mid-day, mid-week, mid-winter. The street doesn't get any emptier than this all year. All the 3-4 bed terraced houses on the right have a 5m frontage and rely entirely on street parking. Many are 2-car households but the average is probably 1.5 cars/house as some houses have no cars. The houses on the left are 5-7 bed and have off-street parking for ~4 cars each. The streets in this area are absolutely at capacity for parking.
I've drawn a 5m frontage on the wall. The Skoda Roomster with the hidden number plate (not mine) is 4.2m long. A VW Golf mk IV is 4.2m long. A Peugot 107 is 3.4m long. A Tesla 3 is 4.7m long, and a Tesla Y is also 4.7m long. So too is my VW Passat 4.7m long and it is very much more difficult for me to find a parking space in the evening than when I drove a Golf - the extra 0.5m makes for an enormous reduction in the number of available parking space options.
The first Tesla was purchased in this street last month. The owner sold a 3-year old Audi SUV for more than they paid for it, and bought a Tesla model 3. Their commute used to cost them £15 (USD 20) in fuel, now it costs them £1.50. They are fortunate as they own one of the houses with off-street parking and own their garden so can run a cable to their charger - very few people in this street can do this (most either rent their homes and/or are on-street parkers). Doubly fortunate as the nearest Tesla Supercharger is 60-miles away (120-mile round-trip).
Nobody in this street has a 'truck'. The full-size vans are those of visiting trades working on jobs. It would probably be socially unacceptable to try to park a truck (or a full size van) here routinely overnight unless one had a real good reason. The trades who live in the street only park small vans here overnight (4.5m length) though the issue is not just the length but also the width. (Cybertruck is 5.9m long x 2.0m wide.) Trying to get home for supper is no fun if the only parking space is 3m long and you are in a 6m vehicle.
>> Tesla will do a car that is smaller than a 3/Y, if only because their own employees will demand it in Europe/Asia as otherwise they can't park.
>>Tesla will need to massively expand the Supercharger network, if only because their own employees will demand it in Europe/Asia as otherwise they can't charge.
I live in Italy so I absolutely understand your concerns.
My understanding is this: Tesla is supply-constrained. People are still buying 3 and Y like hotcakes, and will do so for at least one-two years. Thus, Tesla is focusing in optimizing the factories and lines all over the world.
If I have to think linearly, in 2 years a smaller car will arrive.
The issue is a black swan, one that actually Tesla is preparing itself: FSD.
Musk has high hopes, but people is strange and politics and media will be involved. Don't really know how this will play out. Could be one or two years after the tech is proved safe, could be more. Nobody can say at the moment.
I'm sure Tesla will be ready either way.
ZachF
Active Member
Elon liked this tweet from @avoigt about 45 minutes ago:
As an aside, my stupid meme from Friday went viral on Twitter over the weekend, and was liked by none other than Maye Musk herself!
As an aside, my stupid meme from Friday went viral on Twitter over the weekend, and was liked by none other than Maye Musk herself!
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Elon liked this tweet from @avoigt about 45 minutes ago:
As an aside, my stupid meme from Friday went viral on Twitter over the weekend, and was liked by none other than Maye Musk herself!
Haha, I saw that and thought of you. We all have a role to play
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