I'll try and give you a serious answer, because quite a lot of money is at stake. So, to be honest I don't have any particular emotional feeling regarding this. The forecast I have generated is simply a fairly mechanical outcome of the particular model I have adopted. In these things the motto should be to "dispassionately follow the data", of course hedged with the caveat that one must acknowledge that opinions/emotions of others are in play.
An aspect of the model I use is to observe that there are different types of buyers/sellers out there. Some are momentum traders or emotion traders or playing all sorts of options games, and I cannot account for them. However amongst the more rational buyers/sellers some focus on PE ratios, some focus on PR ratios, some focus on PEG ratios; and some do it quarterly, and some do it annually; and some do it GAAP, and some do it non-GAAP / EBITDA; and some do it backwards-looking and some do it forwards-looking; and some use 1yr fwds and some 5yr fwds. That is to say one could come up with several different 'metrics' for valuation*, and if one were to focus on only one of those and to model a shareprice trajectory accordingly, then one would inadvertently create very sharp discontinuties in the other valuation metrics. So, back in the real world, what would happen is that the traders/investors who are focussed on those other metrics would swing wildly and abruptly and that would confound any single-metric-driven shareprice forecasting model. Therefore I try to blend the various metrics together to get a smoother progression in all the ratios over time, as that - in my opinion - has the best possibility of forecasting a more central shareprice trajectory.
Having done that, the question becomes what to do with it. My opinion is that there are very large error bars on that blended valuation forecast for TSLA, much larger than for most businesses (even for 'now', let alone forwards-looking) because of the disparity in the outcomes from the different metrics (let alone the different operational and financial scenarios). This means that the TSLA shareprice could - perfectly logically and rationally, with no malicious interference required, and full information access to all participants - move rapidly and abruptly over a very wide range, and sit at odd valuations in a sticky manner for very long periods, and then fluctuate rapidly with no apparent cause. So if that were to be the case - and I think it is the case - then one needs to position ones own portfolio of TSLA (and non-TSLA) so as to get the best possible outcome given the resources one has as an individual. For a solo smallbeer investor like me, that could logically and rationally lead to a different strategy than (say) a very rich person, or (say) a fund.
And - in my opinion - this accounts for a lot of what we observe in the TSLA shareprice. So no, I'm not being funny, quite the reverse as I see a range of participants in the market, all of whom have very different views on what might constitute 'funny'.
* Of course valuation is only the last stage of any model of this nature. The first stages are to actually model the operational and financial performance of the business. They are just as hard, if not harder. I should point out that The Accountant's models are more sophisticated than mine in this respect, if only because he includes BS and CF statements in his modelling, and because he takes a lot more effort than I do to account for below-the-line items such as tax and interest and stock options and whatnot - and I am highly impressed by all that. In contrast my models are rather more simplistic in that respect.
Maybe they are waiting for a charging infrastructure to be installed, I am not sure if that temporary portable Supercharger that was on the flatbed has been setup yet.
