Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Just as Tesla brings on capacity to crank out hundreds of thousands of new cars a year they increase prices so much that they will be less affordable than ever… and a new Model Y that slots right in there to shore up any demand on the “low” end.

The last of the LFP battery chemistry patents expire in April 2022. Gigafest Austin is April 7. Coincidence? I think not.

I'm more curious about how these new CATL bty packs will be shipped, and from where.

Cheers!

 

[Singuy]

Damn HSI bouncing 9%. What a rally! Good for futures

 

[Ohmster]

I was never a fan. Of Woz.

Steve Wozniak just bought Tesla-rivaling electric car

Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak has revealed on Twitter that his newest car is an electric Lucid Air.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[insaneoctane]

My take on the price increases...

• Material costs are up some
• Demand is through the roof with wait times approaching one year
• Putin helped increase demand, increasing wait times further
• All other cars have increased prices (dealers saw to this)
• Further increases in margin (no way raw materials have increased close to current Tesla hikes)
• Should slow down backlog acceleration (bad for customers to have to wait 12+ months)
• As long as Tesla is making EVs as fast as they can and has a healthy line of customers wanting to buy them, increasing prices only helps Tesla's financials without compromising the mission

Ironically, I chose NOT to order my MY a year ago because buying my M3 taught me that Tesla just lowers prices after the initial novelty wears off a newly introduced model. I witnessed several price reductions after I bought my M3. So, having learned that lesson in 2018/2019, I let the MY marinade. Well, the opposite happened with the MY. So I played this exactly wrong...I bought my M3 early, at the peak and now have watched the MY increase $14K month by month before my very eyes. Each time I finish licking my wounds from the last increase and start to reconsider, they do it again! So, I will now wait to see if Berlin and Austin can help burn down the backlog and possibly get the pricing back down...if not, even as a Tesla investor and fan boy, I feel the MY is significantly over priced for my personal expectations.

 

[wws]

I was never a fan. Of Woz.

Steve Wozniak just bought Tesla-rivaling electric car

Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak has revealed on Twitter that his newest car is an electric Lucid Air.

www.foxbusiness.com

Woz has weird tastes. Just a few years ago, he was singing praises for the Bolt EV. But he has also bought Teslas. Guess he likes to mix it up.

 

[CyberDutchie]

My long range 2020 Raven model S was a bargain , at least $25,000 less than the current model.

The cure for high commodity prices, is high prices, encouraging more production and
less demand .

The negative wealth effect coupled with high prices will dampen demand. Moreover
as supply issues diminish and supplies increase, high prices will be reversed.

I have yet to hear any YouTuber talk about the hit on margin for Tesla because of inflation. They all say the price increases will improve margin.

Most forget that these price increases apply to new orders only. Tesla is producing cars for orders like mine from over a year ago at the old price. They are basically giving a 20% discount by honoring the old price. That is eating their margins.

 

[deshkart]

I have yet to hear any YouTuber talk about the hit on margin for Tesla because of inflation. They all say the price increases will improve margin.

Most forget that these price increases apply to new orders only. Tesla is producing cars for orders like mine from over a year ago at the old price. They are basically giving a 20% discount by honoring the old price. That is eating their margins.

You should see Robs video for March 15. TLDW: Tesla COGS has actually reduced in last 12 months while ASP have increased.

 

[Todesbuckler]

2 days of production stop at Giga Shanghai

EXCLUSIVE Tesla halts work at Shanghai factory for two days amid China COVID curbs - notice

Electric vehicle giant Tesla is suspending production at its Shanghai factory for two days, according to a notice sent internally and to suppliers, as China tightens COVID restrictions to curb the country's latest outbreak.

www.reuters.com

Should be around 4,000-6,000 cars less produced.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Damn HSI bouncing 9%. What a rally! Good for futures

US Tech macro futures are up significantly too:

Nasdaq 100 Mar 22 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD

13,613.25 +161.50 (+1.20%)
As of 04:00 AM EDT

 

[JusRelax]

2 days of production stop at Giga Shanghai

EXCLUSIVE Tesla halts work at Shanghai factory for two days amid China COVID curbs - notice

Electric vehicle giant Tesla is suspending production at its Shanghai factory for two days, according to a notice sent internally and to suppliers, as China tightens COVID restrictions to curb the country's latest outbreak.

www.reuters.com

Should be around 4,000-6,000 cars less produced.

Well, AAPL didn't seem too affected by factory closuures. I'm sure TSLA won't be affected by factory closures either. /s

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I'll see your 20-million note Curt and raise you a 50-billion!!

View attachment 781425

Amateurs...

I lived this

 

[15Peter20]

Well TSLA inflation (based on the last two days) is running at 165,000,000% p/a, so I’ll take a bit of hyperinflation in the right place.

 

[nativewolf]

Do you really think Putin would listen to Trump? LOL

OF course not, but it would get rid of Trump.

 

[FS_FRA]

The precision of German parking is incredible. There does seem to be any lane markings on the ground, how did they do that?

Let's just say that to get a driving license in Germany is a little more complex than simply showing up at the DMV and not effing up the multiple choice test....

Spoiler: The ugly

• get a vision test
• complete first-aid course
• complete compulsory hours of professional instruction
• complete compulsory hours of theoretical instruction
• pass multiple-choice exam
• pass driving test
• cost between $1600 - $3000 all-in

 

[mongo]

I've been promoting that theory over in Near-future quarterly financial projections for at least 4-5 months, but we did see in Tesla's 2021-10K that they DO NOT expect that 10th operational milestone to be reached.

Also, the current round of price increases will mostly take effect AFTER 2022Q2 (due to the order backlog). The 10th tranche window of opportunity closes in Aug '22, and requires GM as measured over 4 consecutive quarters. So, it's far from certain.

Paging @mongo for the color (he's got a solid understanding of terms for the two CEO comp. plans - 2012 and 2018 respectively, with this issue concerning the 2012 Plan).

Cheers!

Yah, with a huge question being whether it's total gross margin or only automotive including credits . Given they said not probable vs impossible, I lean toward automotive with credit (plus it's mire exciting since this is the last quarter to achive the target).
From 10-K

As of December 31, 2021, the performance milestone of gross margin of 30% or more for four consecutive quarters was considered not probable of achievement for which the unrecognized stock-based compensation is immaterial. For the years ended December 31, 2021, 2020 and 2019, we did not record any stock-based compensation expense related to the 2012 CEO Performance Award.

Gross margin for total automotive increased from 25.6% in the year ended December 31, 2020 to 29.3% in the year ended December 31, 2021.

 

[CyberDutchie]

You should see Robs video for March 15. TLDW: Tesla COGS has actually reduced in last 12 months while ASP have increased.

That is 2021, before inflation. Elon’s tweet is about seeing inflation today. COGS will go up with inflation and as long as Tesla honors the old car prices, as a result, margins will have to go down.

 

[mongo]

That is 2021, before inflation. Elon’s tweet is about seeing inflation today. COGS will go up with inflation and as long as Tesla honors the old car prices, as a result, margins will have to go down.

Margins need not decrease if volume vs fixed costs improvements swamp variable cost increases.

 

[petit_bateau]

You can bet that Russia's hacker legions are doing everything they can to destroy Starlink, Tesla, and SpaceX from the inside out.

This is a bizarro trial in fire for Musk company InfoSec. The fact that Tesla.com, Tesla OTA updates, SpaceX, etc etc are all still online is a testament to good security practices and top notch infrastructure design.

Step 1: Piss off a nation state with a well know, robust hacker legion.
Step 2: ????
Step 3: Profit?

There is quite a lot of evidence that the Russians have been targetting Western satellite communications, hence the need for delivering Starlink to the Ukraine (fantastic to see happening)

Viasat outage was ‘Russian electronic warfare’ says satellite industry

Satellite industry sources are suggesting that Viasat’s problems across Europe are the result of electronic warfare by Russia.

www.capacitymedia.com

and of course lots of landside activity from both sides

Viasat, Rosneft hit by cyberattacks

One shows signs of a state-sponsored intrusion, the other potentially not

www.theregister.com

The Windows malware on Ukraine CERT's radar right now

Government agencies impersonated, fake antivirus, another wiper, backdoors

www.theregister.com

 

[Freder Reeve]

~3 years ago:

fleet & miles driven since then must be bonkers

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yah, with a huge question being whether it's total gross margin or only automotive including credits .

Thanks for your reply (appreciated). So did Tesla even have other business lines other than automotive when the 2012 CEO comp. plan was drafted? This may not be specified in the plan because its self-evident.

Cheers!