With the numbers I heard it’s multiple hundreds per day.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
You're right, I mis-read your post. Must be a big batch that has been allocated right at the end of the quarter seeing as it's closest to the port.
I bet you're well excited to be getting yours! It's for Rose, right?
And yet the body of the article implies that this is a bad thing
From last December...
Thanks!!
This is way, way, better. Same question, anyone have apples-apples comparison data for elsewhere around the globe, especially Europe?
“Musk has said a first-quarter net profit is unlikely. Kallo’s estimate of 67,000 first-quarter deliveries, meanwhile, is below FactSet’s consensus; he forecasts a net profit, on an adjusted basis, for the quarter.”
HELLO!
now, where are those screenshots of 55k FactSet consensus posted here a day or two ago?
EDIT: As Karen pointed out this could be a reference to FactSet’s total deliveries. fwiw my Model 3 delivery forecast is 67k, and Kahlo is among the 2-3 most even handed Tesla analysts so my mind apparently saw this as a Model 3 number.
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FactSet's consensus appears to be ~55k Model 3s delivered, 75k total deliveries.
I guess you've not yet driven an M3, Nico? Boy you are in for a treat!
Will be higher M3 and lower SX, if not then I'll be mightily amazed.
Good point, it is also possible that either Kahlo was talking about full deliveries or that MarketWatch mixed his Model 3 projection with FactSet total deliveries... but you’ve helped me correct my interpretation, FactSet stealth revise game already having been played seems least likely of these 3 possibilities to me.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
That's from a very old page. It has a graph using 2009 data and includes the phrase "while coal generates 50% of the electricity in the U.S".
In 2009 44.45% of electricity was generated using coal.
In 2018 27.25% of electricity was generated using coal.
January 2019 saw another fall in coal use compared to 2018, with 28.09% compared to 31.64% a year ago, and 33.48% in 2017.
Total electricity generation rose by 6.51% from 2009 and 2018.
Change in proportions:
Coal: -17.20%
Petroleum liquids: -0.28%
Petroleum coke: -0.12%
Natural gas: +11.58%
Other gas: +0.02%
Nuclear: -1.04%
Hydro: +0.01%
Utility Solar: +1.56%
Wind: +4.66%
Other renewables:+0.13%
Pumped hydro: +(-)0.02%
Other: +0.00%
Small Solar: +0.70%
In other words, since the 2009 data, the grid has become much cleaner, due to a combination of natural gas, wind and solar replacing coal.
Also, note that the figures for carbon intensity of each source of generation change over time. If renewables are becoming much cheaper, there's an implication on energy intensity.
Here's an updated "mpg" map from UCS in 2014:
https://blog.ucsusa.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EV-map21.jpg
Here's one that uses 2014 data:
https://plugincars.com/sites/default/files/ev-global-warming-ratings-620_0.jpg
If anybody has ones using more recent data I'd love to see it. From 2014 to 2018, coal's share has dropped by 11.28%, which is a big drop, much bigger than from 2009 to 2014, so I expect you'd see a big difference in the image.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
The factset average is 77k. It is right around where I think it will be. But I expect more Model 3s and lower S&X.
Model 3 VINs on Twitter
Tesla continues to register more Vins, another 3k today. 30k in March even though they registered huge numbers in Jan & Feb. Gives more evidence that production has be around 6.5-7k/week, maybe topping 7k/week by a bit. Who knows at this point
Tesla continues to register more Vins, another 3k today. 30k in March even though they registered huge numbers in Jan & Feb. Gives more evidence that production has be around 6.5-7k/week, maybe topping 7k/week by a bit. Who knows at this point
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Isn't that extra risky on the short side? I guess the dumb ones might see this low SP as proof that Tesla is going to go bankrupt or something, but shorting a stock that's already trading at unusual lows seems bananas.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Here is the main thing to focus on.
We need to reduce emission from electricity generating power plants AND from transportation sector. Neither will happen overnight. So,
- We can't wait for the grid to get cleaner before changing from fossil fuel cars to electric cars
- Electric cars keep getting cleaner as the grid gets cleaner, unlike gas cars
- It will take 2 decades to cleanup both the grid and the vehicles
- So, it is important to start the change in both NOW
BTW, check with your utility. Many of them have a "green" option where they buy renewable electricity equivalent to what you use if you pay a small premium (for us it is about 10%).
What does the guidance provided by Tesla have to so with the Factset numbers, which are averaged from numbers made up by "analysts"?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I don't think Tesla guided anything - they basically said about 80k for the year. Given seasonality, Q1 should definitely be lower than 20k. I think it would be around 15k. Model 3 would be around 60k. Anything higher would be great.
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