Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Causalien]

I'm leaning toward Q1 profit, here's why.

If forecasts were close in last call, they'd be wise to say what they said (Q1 loss ) as a precaution. But who plans for a loss when it's close to a profit? Given Norway and the hustle, a Q1 positive is more likely than not IMO. The only way it's neg is if they planned for this burst of demand and execution already - way too risky.

My analysis is more about looking at what a cautious company would do in Jan, and what's happening now that it's on fire! Imagine the upside of even a penny profit.

Today's bullish analyst is begging for demand indicators... Tesla is wise to stay out of that game which could be easily twisted to spread fear. He'll just have to wait like the rest of us I've got 10 years before I really need this money.

Going to pour cold water on this.
There was a delay both in Europe and China. So the call for a push in delivery could be to compensate for that.

 

[EVNow]

Isn't that extra risky on the short side? I guess the dumb ones might see this low SP as proof that Tesla is going to go bankrupt or something, but shorting a stock that's already trading at unusual lows seems bananas.

How many of the longs sold when the SP was at $375 ? We were excited that finally Tesla was breaking out and we are headed to 400+.

 

[SOULPEDL]

That's what I call a missed referral opportunity.

I'm still working my neighbor with the 2 corvettes and all Fox/Trump. Yesterday I asked if he had ever been in a tesla (nope). We are going to take care of that maybe today if I see him. He's responsible, just wrong set of lenses is all.

He asked if I had stock in the company or something. And the planet... hello! (But I don't say that to him. Global warming is a turn off for his type.) My goal is to get him signed up!

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

That's what I call a missed referral opportunity.

No kidding, I need to get some business cards printed. “Silent Ludocrisy - Tesla referrer and potential lunch winner.” At least the S has free supercharging already.

 

[geneclean55]

I don't think Tesla guided anything - they basically said about 80k for the year. Given seasonality, Q1 should definitely be lower than 20k. I think it would be around 15k. Model 3 would be around 60k. Anything higher would be great.

Q4 letter

"we are expecting our Model S and Model X deliveries in Q1 2019 to be slightly below Q1 2018"

 

[dhrivnak]

Here is the main thing to focus on.

We need to reduce emission from electricity generating power plants AND from transportation sector. Neither will happen overnight. So,
- We can't wait for the grid to get cleaner before changing from fossil fuel cars to electric cars
- Electric cars keep getting cleaner as the grid gets cleaner, unlike gas cars
- It will take 2 decades to cleanup both the grid and the vehicles
- So, it is important to start the change in both NOW

BTW, check with your utility. Many of them have a "green" option where they buy renewable electricity equivalent to what you use if you pay a small premium (for us it is about 10%).

And one CAN add solar now and make your own 100% clean fuel. Just try making your own gasoline.

 

[EVNow]

I'm leaning toward Q1 profit, here's why.

If forecasts were close in last call, they'd be wise to say what they said (Q1 loss ) as a precaution. But who plans for a loss when it's close to a profit? Given Norway and the hustle, a Q1 positive is more likely than not IMO. The only way it's neg is if they planned for this burst of demand and execution already - way too risky.

They always "plan" for accelerated deliveries and crazy delivery hell at the end of each quarter.

BTW, are you talking about GAAP or non-GAAP profit ? I definitely don't expect GAAP profit. I'd say chances of non-GAAP profit is quite low too.

 

[ZachF]

Many of us speculate that there are some deep pockets that are funding the shorts - they don't care about profits, they just want to spook the markets and depress investor confidence.

ICE automobile industry is about $3 trillion, global oil sector about $2 trillion. Together that's about 6% of the global economy.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Going to pour cold water on this.
There was a delay both in Europe and China. So the call for a push in delivery could be to compensate for that.

But that wouldn't cause them to build fewer cars. If they catch up in time, we're golden.

Or not.

 

[EVNow]

And one CAN add solar and make you own clean fuel. Just try making your own gasoline.

What I'm talking about is "macro". Definitely, there are lots of things you can do "micro" to help.

One thing to note is Solar is expensive - so if someone is saying EVs are already expensive, this argument won't help.

Bottom-line, even if *today* your grid is not that clean, it is better to buy an EV than an ICE. As we have seen in the past 15 years, the grid keeps getting cleaner.

 

[dhrivnak]

Men wrongly assume that women care about loud cars. Women fake liking men's toys to try and make them self-confident.

Not sure of that as when I took my Roadster to the dragstrip after winning 4 out of 4 I had MANY curious females coming into the line to see that fast but very quiet car.

 

[Foxtrotter]

Here's one that uses 2014 data:

https://plugincars.com/sites/default/files/ev-global-warming-ratings-620_0.jpg

If anybody has ones using more recent data I'd love to see it. From 2014 to 2018, coal's share has dropped by 11.28%, which is a big drop, much bigger than from 2009 to 2014, so I expect you'd see a big difference in the image.

Here is the same source with much more recent data:
New Data Show Electric Vehicles Continue to Get Cleaner

The third figure showing the equivalents for efficient electric vehicles like the model 3 is especially telling:

 

[EVNow]

Q4 letter

"we are expecting our Model S and Model X deliveries in Q1 2019 to be slightly below Q1 2018"

Thanks for that.

I expect them miss this S&X guidance. While there are some bullish indicators on 3 - almost every indicator on S&X is for lower sales of S&X.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Tesla delivered 25k S and X in Q1-17 and 24.7k in Q1-18. 15k would not be great.

That’s incorrect. 21.8k S/X were delivered in Q1 2018:
Tesla Q1 2018 Vehicle Production and Deliveries | Tesla, Inc.

Starting from 21.8k S/X and subtracting 5k (guidance lowered to 80k annual = 20k fewer annually = 5k fewer quarterly), our default assumption should be 16.8k S/X deliveries in Q1. Then adjust as you see fit.

Personally, I’m expecting 17-18k S/X deliveries, but nothing between 15-20k would surprise me.

 

[Leo9]

That is production. They delivered 21.8k S/X Q1-18

Thanks, that was a stupid mistake.

 

[geneclean55]

Thanks for that.

I expect them miss this S&X guidance. While there are some bullish indicators on 3 - almost every indicator on S&X is for lower sales of S&X.

Yeah. Interesting that factset consensus is above Tesla guidance for the S/X. I guess a number of analysts disagree with Tesla guidance. No change there then.

 

[adiggs]

And one CAN add solar now and make your own 100% clean fuel. Just try making your own gasoline.

That "make your own gasoline" idea inspired my signature, years ago when we got our 10 kw solar system installed. Can't do that with fossil fuels, though you might be able to get there (with difficulty) using biomass (enough acres of forest).

 

[tinm]

Another important difference:

Car drivers can take over at any moment. They are required to stay alert and take over when they need to.
In Boeing's case, those pilots don't know how to override the wrong actions by the flight control system. That's really scary.

Requiring drivers to stay alert and take over when they need to does not mean drivers stay alert and take over when they need to. We've already seen cases where they didn't. This will continue to be the case as more non-techie, non-early-adopter drivers start driving Teslas.

 

[RobStark]

Is that native generation or as-consumed? (California, particularly LADWP, used to wheel in some coal-fired generation.)

"Eliminating coal: Either have divested from or have contracts in place to eliminate coal by 2026 • The 2016 divestiture of the Department’s interest in the Navajo plant reduced reliance on coal and cut greenhouse gas emissions • IPP, which currently contracts 44.6% of its capacity to LADWP, has amended its Power Sales Contract to replace its coal units with combined cycle natural gas units by July 2025"

http://cao.lacity.org/debt/InvConf2018/LADWP.pdf​

Native generation. CA does import some coal-fired electricity from Arizona,Nevada and Utah. That is what is displaced first as solar and wind gain ground.

There is one coal fired plant in Northeast CA near triple border with Oregon and Nevada.

 

[dhrivnak]

That "make your own gasoline" idea inspired my signature, years ago when we got our 10 kw solar system installed. Can't do that with fossil fuels, though you might be able to get there (with difficulty) using biomass (enough acres of forest).

During the energy crisis I looked seriously into refining my own alcohol. But getting that critical last 5% of the water out is a bear and not very practical on a hobby level. Much harder than solar.