jhm
Well-Known Member
Sorry, I was trying to suppress the whole fugitive gas problem.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
And if the SEC did something to drop the SP, you would have lost it all...
Esme Es Mejor
Member
Production seems slightly seasonal, but much less than deliveries (24.7k production in Q1 2018, for example). Same method of subtracting 5k from last year’s numbers suggest 19.7k. I’m leaning toward 19k.
Europe’s numbers are definitely down. According to InsideEVs, US numbers are up slightly in Jan/Feb compared to 2018. I’m skeptical that March will be better than 2018, but maybe.
I don’t have any numbers from China, but the tariff situation there should lead to better numbers than last year. No idea how much better, though.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
We're pretty sure that it is, in effect, by design. With the small battery pack S/X removed from the lineup, that purchase option is gone for people that would make that choice. I don't remember the exact numbers, but I remember something like 50 or 70% of S/X purchases being that smaller battery pack.
From my point of view, if S/X purchases shrink 25% (say 25k down to 18k), that sounds like a win to me. Mostly what I still see, when I evaluate the Tesla business and product lineup, is way too few vehicles spread out over way too big of a price range. If somebody wants a cheaper big sedan, Tesla doesn't really have a car for them - they have to go smaller (for cheaper) or more expensive (for the bigness) than they want.
Or if somebody wants a smaller, more luxurious sedan, then they have to decide to go bigger than they want (and more expensive), or stick with smaller and take less luxurious appointments in the vehicle.
These aren't critical deficiencies. These are characteristics of a brand new product lineup that is still filling out. I see a company that is intentionally spreading out the initially available options to cover as wide of a base as possible so that people can make choices to get as close to what they really want, with an expanding universe of choices arriving with time.
They can make a more luxurious Model 3 available in a few years for that smaller segment of buyers that wants an expensive, smaller sedan (and then CUV).
They can make a big, stripped down "Model S" (it won't really be a Model S) to be a Toyota Camry / big sedan competitor when the battery tech / expense is ready and makes that reasonable.
In the current lineup, the "cheap Model S" purchasers are being pushed: up to a more expensive Model S than they really want, or "down" to a smaller Model 3, possibly smaller than they really want. Both outcomes are good for Tesla from a margin perspective (or at least I believe it is). Coming back in a few years with cars to fill in this gap so that purchasers aren't forced in either direction will be sensible then - today, it's sensible to maximize production output by forcing these buyers (and very desirable buyers they are) to move up or move down.
Feel free to elaborate on these delays.
The first Model 3 shipment left Pier 80 12 days into Q1 so with the transit/loading time between Fremont and the ship, the production must have switched to international variants relatively close to the start of Q1.
Tesla's subsequent, first try at mass export has seen relatively minor hiccups:
1) On arrival the first shipment for China saw a delay of several days, due to an incorrect sticker on each car.
Since Tesla seem to go with their usual strategy of trying to maximize deliveries within the same quarter,
it's a reasonable guess that these cars in the worst case have been delivered closer to the import location
than originally planned. With the demand in China, it is not clear that such a shift would imply fewer
deliveries within China during Q1.
2) Deliveries in Sweden have reportedly seen difficulties of a bureaucratic nature. It is possible that this is causing
deliveries in Sweden to be shifted into Q2.
3) A report with photos indicated that 300 Teslas bound for EU missed the boat at Pier 80 (from where they
were later moved, unless the report was somehow incorrect).
4) Bad weather between Zebrugge and Norway has shifted maybe a couple hundred deliveries into Q2.
Feel free to point to other delays. The above is probably not less than 500 cars, but I find it difficult to believe that more than 1k deliveries were affected by issues related to the actual shipping and import.
Naturally, there can still be additional problems, e.g. at the actual delivery centers.
Estimates of cars shipped this quarter to EU + China range from mid-thirty to 52k,
Walter MacVane on Twitter
With Elon Musk calling for a push to deliver an extra 30k vehicles during the final push for this quarter,
I have to say that that amount seems to be on a whole different level than the likely shipping and import delays.
So I am thinking that Elon Musks call for this push is due to the production going at its highest possible rate (constrained by e.g. painting and battery packs - which the SR offsets) rather than delays in getting shipped vehicles out to their points of delivery.
Sudre
Active Member
If I refinanced my house when I bought my solar, the cost added onto the house payment would have been less than my electric bill that I no longer have. So while it seems expensive it actually is not compared to what you pay in electricity... and I pay just under 11 cent kWh. That doesn’t count any tax rebates.
Some people might not be financially secure enough to refi but that is not making solar more expensive. That’s their situation. If they can pay their electric bill they can buy solar as a home owner..... typically.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Panasonic currently makes 4m 2170 cells per day. All need to be slowly charged and discharged a few times to form the SEI layer. Assuming they aren't idiots, they'd schedule those charge/discharge cycles intelligently to use solar instead of filling the grounds with $100m++ of PowerPacks.
Yes, I did tell her that, don't worry - and I'm not mad enough to do it either. But playing with $140 is fun!
And there it is, thank you!
2014 to 2016 was a period of large transition.
Here I say low carbon(renewables and nuclear), High (coal, petroleum, other gas), NG
Code:
Year Low High NG
2014 32.81% 39.56% 27.45%
2015 33.13% 34.06% 32.59%
2016 35.01% 31.16% 33.65%
2017 37.34% 30.55% 31.95%
2018 36.83% 28.12% 34.89%Last year had a noticeable jump in overall demand, mostly met by natural gas. And we're now beginning to see some decrease in nuclear as it's retired and NG takes its place. But still the clearest trend is that high carbon generation is decreasing rapidly, replaced by natural gas and renewables.
So, the picture will look even better in 2 years.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
Over 7500 Model 3s for the quarter between Norway, Netherlands, and Spain— the only European nations we have reliable, real-time information for. Over 8500 cars, including S/X.
It’s hard to imagine sales in the rest of Europe don’t add up to more than these numbers. Germany + Sweden + Switzerland + Austria + Belgium + Finland + France + Italy (plus anyone I’ve forgotten) should add up to a lot more than 7500 Model 3. We shall see soon.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Tesla said they reduced S/X production hours in early January. It's hard to cut part of a shift, and they went to two shifts a year prior as they streamlined production, so it's possible they dropped to a single shift. Production could be as low as 13k in that scenario.
If they are (finally) preparing to launch new S/X versions it would make sense to cut production and cut prices to clear out inventory.
Hmm the official Tesla twitter account is a lot more chatty recently. I wonder if the plan is to shift focus away from Musk.
I think Chinagate was the biggest issue as there were 1600 cars held for a short period, however I would assume these were all delivered, albeit slightly later and this had no bearing on subsequent ship arrivals, ergo, no impact on quarterly figures.
Swedengate is another matter as that looks like an ongoing cluster-f, no idea on the numbers though.
The delay in the North Sea due to bad weather and the 300 left on the shelf do impact, but it's not a lot in the grand scheme.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Ferrari owners don't think women like loud cars.
Expensive red sports cars say I have money and looking for a woman.
That attracts a certain kind of Ferrari buyer..... and a certain kind of woman.
What people say and how they act are not necessarily the same.
Don TLR
Active Member
Jay Leon on USA Today saying good things about Tesla and EV's in general.
Jay Leno talks about electric cars
Jay Leno talks about electric cars
They are just baiting Elon to tweet something material or something offensive to tank the stock. Happens too often that he gets baited. He should have someone ban all these shorts.
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