Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ThisStockGood]

can we watch Cyber Rode live stream online somewhere?

I suppose the arsenal of Tesla YouTubes are going live and will keep us updated... haven't heard anything about an official stream, but that would be nice!

 

[Krugerrand]

What would you have us discuss if not the day to day movements of the share price? Yes, we all bought shares of TSLA and are holding them. Yes, there is no better strategy than that. Doesn't make for very interesting conversation.

I would argue unbridled optimism in the short term is the primary pastime of a proper TMCer. Preferably so unbridled around earnings that it's borderline psychotic. It is tradition!

Then quickly back to rational analysis.

Honestly, after all these years, even short term price moves are boring discussion. There’s really nothing new to be said about any of it. It goes up sometimes, it goes down sometimes and nobody actually has a clue why, but guessing is highly sought after. It’s one of the reasons I’m not against off-topic discussions, unlike yourself. I welcome the additional information about stuff, often far more interesting and revealing than the SP movement.

Today the SP dropped 4-5% out of the gate and is hanging around there like a smoking teenager outside a strip mall and just like so many other tickers. How scintillating! I can hardly wait until it enters the 7/11 to buy a Slurpee. What flavor today?!

Go ahead. Make today interesting and exciting for me. Looking forward to busting a blood vessel.

 

[wipster]

Doors open at 4, presentation begins at dusk. Hoping for some kind of exciting announcements regarding the Cybertruck that will hopefully rally the price on Friday.

Thanks mate!

 

[stealthyc]

I'm not going to hedge my exuberance just because Ken Griffin needs the SP to be $1035 this week.

Hedging expectations to to protect from emotional letdown is simply another distortion of reality.

Billions in profits are in the mail. Get excited.

This is some sort of strawman, I never said you should change anything about how you feel. And like I said, I'm sure everyone here is really excited about the future of Tesla. Your original post was denigrating what you saw as shifting sentiment here and that you thought people were not excited about the gigafactory opening. I merely pointed out that while excited about the future, not everyone has to be overly optimistic about the short term stock movement (which doesn't correlate to lack of excitement), nor find it interesting (as @Krugerrand mentioned). I then slightly ranted about (in my opinion) OT posts of the daily stock commentary.

Edit to add that I agree with @Krugerrand that typical OT posts are more interesting and I prefer them over the daily stock movement chatter.

 

[JustSaying]

I’m no lawyer but we did learn a bit about US market power laws in my economics classes in college and here is my understanding. As far as I know, monopoly achieved solely by merit is legal.

Spoiler: Monopoly legal stuff

The primary law that could affect Tesla in the USA is the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890. It has a section specifying that “Every person who shall monopolize, or attempt to monopolize, or combine or conspire with any other person or persons, to monopolize any part of the trade or commerce among the several States, or with foreign nations, shall be deemed guilty of a felony”

Sounds bad for Tesla!

But not really, because, in Wikipedia’s words:

​

“Over time, the federal courts have developed a body of law under the Sherman Act making certain types of anticompetitive conduct per se illegal, and subjecting other types of conduct to case-by-case analysis regarding whether the conduct unreasonably restrains trade.​

​

The law attempts to prevent the artificial raising of prices by restriction of trade or supply. "Innocent monopoly", or monopoly achieved solely by merit, is legal, but acts by a monopolist to artificially preserve that status, or nefarious dealings to create a monopoly, are not. The purpose of the Sherman Act is not to protect competitors from harm from legitimately successful businesses, nor to prevent businesses from gaining honest profits from consumers, but rather to preserve a competitive marketplace to protect consumers from abuses.”​

Courts would consider factors such as:

1) Tesla open-sourced all their patents for anyone who would use them in good faith.

2) Tesla has always actively encouraged other companies to make more EVs and batteries and solar and has historically helped companies like Toyota with making EVs and still has an open invitation to help anyone.

3) Tesla has made no attempt to collude with other companies for forming a price-fixing cartel.

4) Tesla is opening up the Supercharger network for non-Tesla EV drivers.

5) Tesla is working as hard as possible to increase quantity supplied instead of illegally restricting supply to raise prices to earn more overall revenue.

6) Tesla’s acquisitions like Hibar, Maxwell, and Grohmann have been clearly for the purpose of integration and innovation that ultimately helps the end consumer and society as a whole.

7) Tesla has not contractually forbidden competitors from using Tesla products in ways that would impede competition.

8) Tesla has not merged with or acquired any competitors.

9) Tesla has not included non-compete stipulations of exclusivity in any of their supply contracts (e.g. Panasonic is free to sell battery cells to anyone else).

10) Most importantly, Tesla achieved dominant monopoly status by vision, audacity and world-class execution. Winning fair and square is perfectly legal. It’s not Tesla’s fault that competitors voluntarily, stupidly, and haughtily decided to give them 15 years of a head start while offering mostly derision and condescension towards Tesla until they woke up to reality.

At worst perhaps Tesla could be criticized in court for bundling FSD with vehicles and powerwall with solar, or for not allowing 3rd parties to access parts and repair instructions for servicing Tesla vehicles.

I understand that monopoly law tends to be similar in other major capitalistic jurisdictions like EU, UK, China, Canada, etc. I would still keep an eye out for this however because if antitrust suits do come someday it could reduce Tesla’s long term investment value. As I’ve said before, if Tesla is forcibly dismantled like AT&T or Standard Oil that would be bad for cost, rate of innovation and the customer experience.

Homework
Competition Law
US Antitrust Law
Sherman Act
US v. AT&T
Std Oil v. US

Agreed but as someone once said;
"I always grew up believing that if you build a better mousetrap, the world will beat a path to your door. Now if you build a better mousetrap the government comes along with a better mouse."

 

[ggies07]

I suppose the arsenal of Tesla YouTubes are going live and will keep us updated... haven't heard anything about an official stream, but that would be nice!

Yep. Don't invite a bunch of locals. Instead, get people from CA to come here, stream live, and then you don't have to worry about it! Genius or cheapskate...biggest BBQ party ever eh?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Honestly, after all these years, even short term price moves are boring discussion. There’s really nothing new to be said about any of it. It goes up sometimes, it goes down sometimes and nobody actually has a clue why, but guessing is highly sought after. It’s one of the reasons I’m not against off-topic discussions, unlike yourself. I welcome the additional information about stuff, often far more interesting and revealing than the SP movement.

Today the SP dropped 4-5% out of the gate and is hanging around there like a smoking teenager outside a strip mall and just like so many other tickers. How scintillating! I can hardly wait until it enters the 7/11 to buy a Slurpee. What flavor today?!

Go ahead. Make today interesting and exciting for me. Looking forward to busting a blood vessel.

I don't disagree, we've certainly beaten this horse to death. Just trying to entertain myself with old school earnings optimism and apparently that's annoying to some on a down day.

I think they're just grumpy. You wouldn't understand.

 

[SOULPEDL]

So if the Fed's minutes spell out 1/2 % increase:

1. Is that baked into the stocks already?
2. Is there something someone knows ahead of time?
3. It's the perfect time to freak out people into selling so we can buy cheaper?

Something tells me it's a bit of all 3.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yep. Don't invite a bunch of locals. Instead, get people from CA to come here, stream live, and then you don't have to worry about it! Genius or cheapskate...biggest BBQ party ever eh?

Want some pork belly with that salt?

Help me understand why it’s so important to you to be invited. Personally, I’d give you my invite if I had one. I’ve no desire to be elbow to elbow with a bunch of people for so many reasons, but primarily - who thinks the odds are better than 50/50 Elon gets COVID for a fourth time?

 

[SOULPEDL]

So buy the news? (When the anticipation is negative). Sound logical anyway, as long as it's not worse than expected.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Well, well....well...

Like Tesla, Toyota develops self-driving tech with low-cost cameras

Toyota Motor Corp unit Woven Planet is following the lead of Tesla Inc in trying to advance self-driving technology with low-cost cameras.

www.reuters.com

Guess Elon was 'less wrong' after all about Lidar being a crutch.

 

[Knightshade]

Well, well....well...

View attachment 790664

Like Tesla, Toyota develops self-driving tech with low-cost cameras

Toyota Motor Corp unit Woven Planet is following the lead of Tesla Inc in trying to advance self-driving technology with low-cost cameras.

www.reuters.com

Guess Elon was 'less wrong' after all about Lidar being a crutch.

But from the same story:

He said, however, Toyota would still use multiple sensors such as lidars and radars for robotaxis and other autonomous vehicles to be deployed on the road, as this currently seemed to be the best, safest approach to developing robotaxis.

"But in many, many years, it's entirely possible that camera type technology can catch up and overtake some of the more advanced sensors," he said.

 

[ggies07]

Want some pork belly with that salt?

Help me understand why it’s so important to you to be invited. Personally, I’d give you my invite if I had one. I’ve no desire to be elbow to elbow with a bunch of people for so many reasons, but primarily - who thinks the odds are better than 50/50 Elon gets COVID for a fourth time?

Just for the moment, I'll get over it...umm...I live 3 hours away and want to see the 4680 line and the rest. Ya know, geek out and stuff. IF it was billed from the start as just press, it would be no biggie, but it's been made out to be this grand party like Berlin was...oh well.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Well, well....well...

View attachment 790664

Like Tesla, Toyota develops self-driving tech with low-cost cameras

Toyota Motor Corp unit Woven Planet is following the lead of Tesla Inc in trying to advance self-driving technology with low-cost cameras.

www.reuters.com

Guess Elon was 'less wrong' after all about Lidar being a crutch.

I’m not sure I consider Toyota strategy to be a ringing endorsement.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Just for the moment, I'll get over it...umm...I live 3 hours away and want to see the 4680 line and the rest. Ya know, geek out and stuff. IF it was billed from the start as just press, it would be no biggie, but it's been made out to be this grand party like Berlin was...oh well.

I agree. It’s going to be a beautiful afternoon in Austin tomorrow, and I would have thought that this would be an Austin/Texas-centric invite list. Instead, it looks like the same old Twitter weenies who plot every mile of their supercharging route to Texas online as if we care.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm still very surprised that the daily posts about how that day's price movements (on a down day anyway) are clearly manipulated, and the comments about whether we are green or not at any moment in time are still allowed by moderators.

There is no doubt the share price is manipulated for multiple reasons. Sometimes it's manipulated higher although I think it's much more often manipulated lower or capped. At a minimum, one must acknowledge that market makers have, at a minimum, many millions of dollars on the line at all times and that with the fast historical growth of TSLA share price, a lower share price often benefits them. I won't even get into the Jack Rickards theory although I can't see there not being some truth to that as well.

Having said all that, I'm one of the last people to comment on this manipulation as I take it as a given. While I don't like the greed and gamesmanship behind it, it really doesn't have much of an impact on me as an investor - I just accept it for what it is. There is nothing I can do about it that would be all that significant. It is what it is and sometimes it even helps me.

What's really surprising to me is anyone claiming the share price is NOT manipulated. Pretty much all stocks are and Tesla is not only not an exception, it has more manipulation than most. It takes donning some pretty big blinders to deny that.

 

[Accident]

Tesla Battery Supplier CATL Receives Partial Approval to Commission Plant in Germany, 200 mi from Giga Berlin

Tesla battery supplier CATL has received a second partial approval to commission a plant in Germany. The factory is about 200 miles from Giga Berlin and will start operations by the end of 2022.

www.tesmanian.com

"Initial capacity will be 8 GWh per year, and then it will be increased to 14 GWh"
"The manufacturer expects the first cells to roll off the assembly line by the end of 2022."

 

[StealthP3D]

What would you have us discuss if not the day to day movements of the share price? Yes, we all bought shares of TSLA and are holding them. Yes, there is no better strategy than that. Doesn't make for very interesting conversation.

I would argue unbridled optimism in the short term is the primary pastime of a proper TMCer. Preferably so unbridled around earnings that it's borderline psychotic. It is tradition!

Then quickly back to rational analysis.

There is a lot of very relevant Tesla stuff to discuss that has to do with the value of the company, not the day-to-day movements of the share price. Some things add fundamental value to Tesla's business and that is true whether the market immediately prices it in or not. More often than not the share price movement are distractions.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Hey y'all...$TSLA SP is (_____________)....never mind, i don't wanna be that guy.

 

[Nocturnal]

Want some pork belly with that salt?

Help me understand why it’s so important to you to be invited. Personally, I’d give you my invite if I had one. I’ve no desire to be elbow to elbow with a bunch of people for so many reasons, but primarily - who thinks the odds are better than 50/50 Elon gets COVID for a fourth time?

I'm glad I'm not the only one.
"But 15k people are going to be there!"
Uhh, that makes it less appealing, not more.