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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The Accountant
Active Member
Welcome to Stock Trends Amateur Hour
I hesitate to post this because there's no technical basis (nor fundamental basis) underlying this analysis.
But since I spent a few minutes on it and there's an interesting price movement, I thought I would share it.
Use this info at your own peril.
Q4 was a "so so" quarter. The more recent quarter where Tesla beat expectations was Q3 (a 17% beat).
- Tesla reported Q3 earnings on Oct 20 and you can see that even with a 17% beat, the stock moved just slightly to $909 by Fri Oct 22.
- On Monday Oct 25, the 100k Hertz order was revealed and the stock popped to $1,024 but traded sideways for a couple of days to $1.037 on Wed.
- Then with no news it moved to $1,222 over the next 7 trading days. An 18% move while the NASDAQ was up 5%.
- Volume was very high on Nov 1 & 2 (likely a whale scooping up shares).
Perhaps we see a similar delayed response to this Q1 2022 beat.
I hesitate to post this because there's no technical basis (nor fundamental basis) underlying this analysis.
But since I spent a few minutes on it and there's an interesting price movement, I thought I would share it.
Use this info at your own peril.
Q4 was a "so so" quarter. The more recent quarter where Tesla beat expectations was Q3 (a 17% beat).
- Tesla reported Q3 earnings on Oct 20 and you can see that even with a 17% beat, the stock moved just slightly to $909 by Fri Oct 22.
- On Monday Oct 25, the 100k Hertz order was revealed and the stock popped to $1,024 but traded sideways for a couple of days to $1.037 on Wed.
- Then with no news it moved to $1,222 over the next 7 trading days. An 18% move while the NASDAQ was up 5%.
- Volume was very high on Nov 1 & 2 (likely a whale scooping up shares).
Perhaps we see a similar delayed response to this Q1 2022 beat.
The Accountant
Active Member
Agree.
The new talking point is that although Tesla is very successful and has done a great job, the stock is grossly over-valued and more stock appreciation gains from here are unlikely and perhaps even a drop in share price.
Tesla is entering the 2nd inning but many analysts believe that Tesla is in the 9th inning.
No one’s discussing the fact that Elon may be selling 21M shares to fund the tender offer for Twitter? That would be larger than what he sold a few months ago when exercising his options and paying tax for 2021. Long term it doesn’t matter but would definitely be important for those playing options
For reference, Salesforce is at a PE of 120 with sustained 25% growth (vs. Tesla's 136 at 50%+ growth), and I haven't heard anybody screaming that it's wildly overvalued.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Link? Who produces that chart?
EDIT:
Yahoo Finance still has this for TSLA P/E: (Apr 22, 2022 10:00 ET)
| PE Ratio (TTM) | 209.20 |
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ZachF
Active Member
Salesforce is overvalued because their products are garbage though…
Bill Gates supposedly has another massive short on Tesla. Hopefully he’ll lose this one like he did the last.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I think you assign too much influence on Yahoo Finance. And P/E ratios. Yahoo Finance is a joke and that's not how successful investors value growth stocks, especially ultra-high growth stocks.
Who has enough money to move markets? That's right, successful investors. In other words, any correlation between bull runs and Yahoo Finance updating TSLA's P/E ratio is merely a coincidence.
The Accountant
Active Member
I found it odd that the average TSLA price target on Yahoo was $980 . . . .
. . . . .then I saw that Gordon's $67 PT is taking this average down.
If Yahoo includes Gordon's $67, they should at least include Trip Chowdhry's target of $2,300.
. . . . .then I saw that Gordon's $67 PT is taking this average down.
If Yahoo includes Gordon's $67, they should at least include Trip Chowdhry's target of $2,300.
ZachF
Active Member
Gordon thinks a P/E of ~20x just this quarter’s profit is reasonable…not this quarter annualized, just this quarter.
I think someone with $ just read your post!
Just trying to show what Wall Street thinks an appropriate PE should be for a large cap, 25% growth company.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Whale buying this A.M.? TSLA far outperforming other U.S. Tech majors.
...musta bean the S**&Pee not-an-upgrade
EDIT: Can we mock a domestic name?
Cheers!
...musta bean the S**&Pee not-an-upgrade
EDIT: Can we mock a domestic name?
Cheers!
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Or they should weight the targets by the star-rating of the "analysts".
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