Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Very true, hates and techies, etc. The more concerning issue is a large buying group that fears a companies solvency and their large investment in a vehicle. This includes all types of buyers. I see this as a valid concern, I have owned three Tesla's and I don't mind the risk/reward.

I agree that it's a concern and no thanks to FUDsters. A co-worker recently asked about how I can get my car serviced since Tesla is heading for bankruptcy. I don't expect everyone to follow anti-fud news site considering they are usually niche and not you know..CN freaking N.

 

[ZeApelido]

BTW., there's a curious thing I noticed this quarter: Electrek reported no leaked Tesla production figures, at all.

In Q3 there were several leaks, very close to the actual production figures.

For example there was this article right before the delivery report:

Tesla produced a record ~80,000 vehicles in Q3 and deliveries could be even crazier

"A source familiar with the matter has told Electrek that Tesla produced a record ~80,000 vehicles this quarter."
​

Eventual Q3 production was indeed 80k vehicles: 80,142.

Electrek either had a source who hacked into the innermost networks, or had a very high level source.

This Electrek source dried up in Q1'19 AFAICS.

That's because Vicky Cristina Barcelona was let go from paint shop.

 

[ZeApelido]

Shortsville Times: BMW To Go Hide in the Bushes

While many carriers of Model 3's have been observed heading north on Highway 101 to San Francisco to export abroad, this observer curiously observed a carrier of BMW's headed south on 101. Since there's nothing much south of Palo Alto, one can only assume the BMW's are being dumped off in the garlic fields of Gilroy. Hiding this unsold inventory is just the beginning of the end for BMW in California. #BMWQ

 

[S3XY]

They might be able to do so. However, it wouldn’t be quick and it’d be incredibly painful(and possibly fatal) to go for it all at once. Right now they seem content to die slowly of a thousand cuts, hoping against hope for a solid state battery breakthrough or for H2 to miraculously take off. Of course, even if one of those happen, they still have to scale that manufacturing, which every other manufacturer, Tesla included, has found to be harder than expected.

I don't get why they think this. Are solid state batteries expected to be cheap from the get-go? I wouldn't think so. So they'll just have a new battery technology that they'll have to wait for the price to drop on so they can make a profitable EV.

 

[adiggs]

Ryan Brinkman also covers $F...

View attachment 391597

In fairness - those first 2 buy recommendations worked out pretty well. The last 26 - not so hot, but the first 2.

 

[ZeApelido]

Shortsville Times Part Deux: More Arrests for Daimler in U.S.

A carrier of Mercedes vehicles was witnessed stranded on the side of the road on Highway 101 last Tuesday, with a police officer nearby. Was it reckless German driving, or illegally trying to sell high-polluting vehicles in the States? Or was the driver trying to leave the vehicles there on the side of the road, to hide unsold inventory? How far will the Germans go to mask their fraud? More at 11.

 

[mongo]

In fairness - those first 2 buy recommendations worked out pretty well. The last 26 - not so hot, but the first 2.

Nah, they would have required a sell to be worth anything, and there are none...
( the last buy was at a lower price than the second)

 

[ZachF]

 

[Singuy]

Are you part of the AAPLQ crowd?

/S

LoL, I probably have over 6 figures in AppL stocks thanks to index funds. Not to mention I am extremely overweighed in tech. The last thing I want is Apple to take a dump but the company is still *sugar* in my opinion.

 

[Fact Checking]

That's because Vicky Cristina Barcelona was let go from paint shop.

I don't think that Vicky was the source, because Electrek was also leaked delivery numbers:

Tesla produced a record ~80,000 vehicles in Q3 and deliveries could be even crazier

"A source familiar with the matter has told Electrek that Tesla produced a record ~80,000 vehicles this quarter."

"This level of production is unprecedented for the automaker, but deliveries could turn out to be even crazier."​

Indeed, deliveries turned out to be even crazier: 83,500.

(In Q3 2017 they made almost as many cars as they delivered - so this wasn't just a lucky guess I believe.)

Vicky as a paint shop manager would not have any access to delivery numbers: that comes from the sales division, and is only summed up at the top.

I also don't think she had any motivation to be a long time Electrek source: she did break her NDA by leaking a few nuggets, but her goal appeared to be to basically proudly brag about paint shop progress. The Electrek leaker methodically leaked production numbers during most of 2018 (including Q4), with deliberate timing, which to me gave the impression of someone trying to "manage" market expectations.

So I don't think Vicky was the source, I think Electrek had a source at much higher levels than the paint shop. Which source went completely silent in Q1. (So far at least.)

I also didn't see any recent Alpha Hat figures: maybe Tesla plugged that leak too by talking to their mobile provider?

I.e. there's an almost unprecedented lack of leaks of Tesla Q1 production progress, which might increase volatility when the Q1 production & deliveries report is released on the 2nd of April.

 

[humbaba]

I don't get why they think this. Are solid state batteries expected to be cheap from the get-go? I wouldn't think so. So they'll just have a new battery technology that they'll have to wait for the price to drop on so they can make a profitable EV.

Solid state batteries exist right now and could be used to make an EV. They provide significant upside, including safety and efficiency. An EV with a solid state battery has a better energy density and thus perhaps doubling the range[1].

But... they cost too much. As in, not even going to happen. They also are worse at low temperatures. And have conductivity issues*. Each problem is, I think, solvable. The biggest difficulty is solving them simultaneously.

1) What's the difference between a Li-ion and solid-state battery?
2) Solid-state batteries inch their way toward commercialization | November 20, 2017 Issue - Vol. 95 Issue 46 | Chemical & Engineering News

* edited to clarify: my understanding is that the charge/discharge rate is too slow to use in a car. Sure, you could make a leaf with a theoretical 400 mile range, but you couldn't discharge it quickly enough to actually move the car.

And there are additional problems. But I haven't kept links handy to review patents relating to them. Solid state for cars is still very much a research problem, not even to the point of engineering it for production.

 

[NicoV]

I agree that it's a concern and no thanks to FUDsters. A co-worker recently asked about how I can get my car serviced since Tesla is heading for bankruptcy. I don't expect everyone to follow anti-fud news site considering they are usually niche and not you know..CN freaking N.

The general public thinks the big car manufacturers are very profitable and Tesla’s losses are a disaster waiting to happen. However companies don’t go bankrupt because of losses but because of lack of cash. They are very surprised that Tesla has become (very) cash flow positive, and that the other car manufactureres are very cash flow negative. They just can’t believe that.

 

[uselesslogin]

I'll be very interested in next week's delivery report. I would expect Model S/X to be closer to 15k than 20k. But Model 3 production is really hard to call this quarter.

As far as demand goes with the MR discontinued Europe doesn't even have the LR AWD as an available option. I would think production would be shifting to Europe and China next week so they obviously aren't worried about the depth of their current order book. Is it possible non-US RWD variants will have to wait another quarter? I would think the margin mix would be pretty darn good in Q2 if international deliveries stick to AWD.

 

[dhrivnak]

Help me understand this, please. So we need a referral system that doesn't offer anything to the referer? Maybe amputate a toe for each referral given?

This is a reason I like the new system much better. A smallish 1,000 miles of SuperCharging is minor compared to getting a Roadster or even a home charging station.

 

[Chop110]

Sorry you all. I looked at the chart and now it stopped climbing.

 

[brian45011]

During the energy crisis I looked seriously into refining my own alcohol. But getting that critical last 5% of the water out is a bear and not very practical on a hobby level. Much harder than solar.

Azeotropes are a chemical process engineer's 'bea awch."

Azeotropes

But 190 proof isn't bad-- grand-pappy always said ethanol is intended for consumption not combustion. Cooking corn to burn ethanol as a transportation fuel has a negative energy balance on a life-cycle basis--it's a solution only farmers should love.

 

[ZeApelido]

I don't think that Vicky was the source, because Electrek was also leaked delivery numbers:

Tesla produced a record ~80,000 vehicles in Q3 and deliveries could be even crazier

"A source familiar with the matter has told Electrek that Tesla produced a record ~80,000 vehicles this quarter."

"This level of production is unprecedented for the automaker, but deliveries could turn out to be even crazier."​

Indeed, deliveries turned out to be even crazier: 83,500.

In Q3 2017 they made almost as many cars as they delivered - so this wasn't just a lucky guess I believe.

Vicky as a paint shop manager would not have any access to delivery numbers: that comes from the sales division, and is only summed up at the top.

I also don't think she had any motivation to be a long time Electrek source: she did break her NDA by leaking a few nuggets, but her goal appeared to be to basically proudly brag about paint shop progress. The Electrek leaker methodically leaked production numbers during most of 2018 (including Q4), with deliberate timing, which to me gave the impression of someone trying to "manage" market expectations.

So I don't think Vicky was the source, I think Electrek had a source at much higher levels than the paint shop. Which source went completely silent in Q1. (So far at least.)

I also didn't see any recent Alpha Hat figures: maybe Tesla plugged that leak too by talking to their mobile provider?

I.e. there's an almost unprecedented lack of leaks of Tesla Q1 production numbers, which might increase volatility when the Q1 production & deliveries report is released on the 2nd of April.

You take everything too seriously, Elon. I was joking.

 

[ZachF]

The general public thinks the big car manufacturers are very profitable and Tesla’s losses are a disaster waiting to happen. However companies don’t go bankrupt because of losses but because of lack of cash. They are very surprised that Tesla has become (very) cash flow positive, and that the other car manufactureres are very cash flow negative. They just can’t believe that.

Most other car companies have significant debt too.

They like to talk about Tesla having debt, but Tesla's debt at ~$10 billion is only equal to about 2 years of operational cash flow.

Most other automakers' debt is equal to well over a decade's worth of operational cashflow.

 

[ZachF]

...trying to stop it from breaking $280

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Europe February 2019