Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

Sources tell me that if they didn't approve it, Elon was going to raise a big stink.

 

[KarenRei]

New flyover:

Still just the two roof truss segments, which surprises me. But they've started breaking ground on a whole new section of land to the southeast of where they've been building. Also, the concrete floor appears to have set in much of the current building - they're now driving heavy trucks on it.

 

[Pras]

I have to say, if you go through this presentation it answers a lot of questions. Toyota, one of the top 3 largest auto corps, carefully lays out why they have no intentions of really doing ANYTHING that might risk their profitable position.

They present the horrible/impossible challenges of each level of autonomous driving in a very professorial fashion (Beuller, Beuller, clock, clock). Some levels just too dangerous to attempt it sounds like (it is a pretty sure bet they heavily participated in developing the SAE levels in the first place).

He makes (with a straight face) that it requires 15 seconds to recover situational awareness of a driving situation (say your texting or reading). He says that at 65mph 15 seconds of recovery time means 5 football fields (his words at 24:30) of advance notice that the car must provide. He is presenting with a straight face that the car must know 500 yards in advance that another car (or whatever) is going to pull out in front of you so you can plan for 15 seconds what to do. It is a completely laughable. My goodness you could completely stop by then (345').

Fear, fear, fear, uncertainty, uncertainty, doubt, doubt, doubt, not responsible, not responsible, humans bad, humans bad. Level 2 bad, bad, level 3 bad, bad. World war II bad, bad. Level 4 decades away (31:10), so many lives at risk.

He suggests that drivers will be required to maintain awareness like truck drivers (29:55) by talking on a radio, dodging speed traps or even engaging with a little bot like "Clippy" (34:05) to keep your mind from drifting lest you weak emotional human fail to be vigilant and the machine fail you. You all want to talk to Clippy on the CB don't ya watchin for smokey?

TLV The bottom line here is that Toyota in 2016 started a research center in Silicon Valley by hiring a Michigan college professor and only 100 people to find reasons why nothing should change in the auto industry and to "educate" the media why nothing will change for 10 years or decades. And it is all the fault of humans because they are emotional and have attention problems so I guess we will have to let those 35,000 people die every year. If this is not selling FUD and arming the shorts, I don't know what is.

Sorry a bit. Just tired of the LIFT IPOGASM etc

I read it the same. The presentation would have made optimistic people hopeless about future. It seemed the guy was trying to convince his boss that if we fail don’t blame us...it was just too hard.

 

[lklundin]

In Belgium there are certainly rules that allow to be open exceptionally on sunday. E.g. big retail stores are open during the very busy december holiday period sundays. Smaller stores are even open every sundaymorning. I’m not sure if car dealers would even fall under this kind of legislation.

Fair enough.

I had thought to argue that I have never seen the local VW/Audi dealership open on a Sunday.

But any difference may have to do with Tesla's special demand situation...

 

[imherkimer]

Your fart has not been preapproved by the SEC

Depends on whether the fart in question would be considered material. No wonder they waived the evidentiary hearing!

On no! I fear this has gone too far, even for fart mode.

 

[NicoV]

Fair enough.

I had thought to argue that I have never seen the local VW/Audi dealership open on a Sunday.

But any difference may have to do with Tesla's special demand situation...

I googled a bit and found lots of ‘open door weekends’ (sorry, don’t know if this is the proper English word) by Audi delaerships in Belgium. So there’s definitely no regulatory objection to being open a couple of sundays per year for Belgian car dealers.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Making it even worse is that Tesla didn't review it first.

When you think it’s just a fart but it turns out to be material

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Could be another 500+ day for Norway. Already at 327 which is close to the pace from the record breaking day.

 

[Fact Checking]

Neither of these or any other copy I found on-line provided any credible source or proof of such an discount.

Both in Q3 and late in Q4 there were TSLAQ rumors that Tesla is selling thousands of cars to fleet operators near the end of the quarter.

These were, most of the time, just lies: to counter good deliveries, and in general to create the false appearance of "no demand".

 

[humbaba]

I read it the same. The presentation would have made optimistic people hopeless about future. It seemed the guy was trying to convince his boss that if we fail don’t blame us...it was just too hard.

Taken in that light, maybe all of his cracks about Tesla AutoPilot Level 2 autonomy were defensive, trying to explain why they hadn't even attempted to do it. After all, he also says something to the effect of "going straight to level 4 is what everyone is doing." It could be that he was just lining up his argument that "everyone else agreed this was the only way to do it, and we were right, so... so... just remember that taking the level 2-3 approach was wrong and it wasn't just us."

 

[printf42]

Both in Q3 and late in Q4 there were TSLAQ rumors that Tesla is selling thousands of cars to fleet operators near the end of the quarter.

These were, most of the time, just lies: to counter good deliveries, and in general to create the false appearance of "no demand".

Then when China market grows to be more and more important we would suffer the current Wild West of Chinese online media.
It’s quite a different beast, you can roughly treat any online news resource as SinkingAlpha, with no fact checking and lots of blindingly copy pasting.

Only exception would be the few state owned outlets. Xinhua etc. Those would only post what gov wants you to know, and usually not jumping on rumors.

Welcome to the heaven of stock manipulation!
(Appears some shorts already figured it out,)

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I always laugh when people think that Toyota could not compete in the EV space when they choose. I saw prototype EVs from the a big German automaker before there was a Model S or any production EV on the market. Many companies have had development for a long time but various reasons kept them from entering "all in".

And yet, we see several now who are “all in” and their showings are... weak. Whether it be the barely-an-suv-with-pitiful-range iPace, the basically-an-iPace eTron, the tried-to-copy-Model-3 Polestar 2 or any of the other would-be Tesla Killers, they are all massively compromised, tiny volume cars with huge production delays.

The fact is: they don’t have the tech, they don’t have the production capability for electric drivetrains in volume, and they don’t have the battery supply. It’s turned out that all their pre-established factories haven’t helped them much in the EV space.

Sorry, we’ve now seen enough of them try and miserably fail to take it for granted that Toyota, or anyone else, can simply come in and take over whenever they want.

 

[ReflexFunds]

I always laugh when people think that Toyota could not compete in the EV space when they choose. I saw prototype EVs from the a big German automaker before there was a Model S or any production EV on the market. Many companies have had development for a long time but various reasons kept them from entering "all in".

Why ICE OEMs are handicapped relative to new EV companies

• At ICE OEMs most car components and most of the production process is outsourced. This reduces share of the value chain and reduces profit per car. It also makes the company much less agile to rapid changes in technology.
• EVs only share 10%-20% of components and production process with ICEs.
• EVs will be lower margin products for ICE OEMs for several years. EV product launches will heavily cannibalize a brands equivalent higher margin ICE car creating a large disincentive for high quality EV launches. Currently all ICE OEMs sell as few EVs as possible while meeting their legal emissions mandates. This is why their cars are all low volume, sub standard offerings.
• Sales channel is outsourced to dealerships who are not incentivized to sell EVs. Dealerships make a majority of their profits from maintenance revenue, which is much lower for EVs and requires different expertise.
• ICE service networks and service technicians do not have training in electronics and battery tech and are not able to service EVs without significant investment and significant new hires.
• Key IP and barrier to entry in the auto industry has been engine design and lack of funding for car startups. Engines are now redundant and Tesla has proved the investment case for investing in EV disruptors.
• ICE OEMs have a 50 year+ culture of working towards minimal annual incremental improvements rather than rapid innovation. Not suited to the rapid change needed to follow the EV/battery & motor experience curves.
• Unionized and inflexible to automation and modernization.
• Significant historic pension and other liabilities built over 50+ years.
• Own $trns of legacy ICE assets, many of which will have to be written down as part of the EV transition.
• Mostly trying to fit EVs into their old production lines and existing designs, EV companies have flexibility to design from scratch and make full use of the potential safety and ease of manufacturing improvements.
• Own a short term loan portfolio of ICE leases and auto loans which needs to be refinanced continuously, but the underlying assets will depreciate rapidly with the EV transition
• Shareholders value short term profits, dividends and share buybacks and are not supportive of short term pain for a long term vision, or investing heavily in the future.
• Traditional brands are tarnished with a history of killing 1-4 million people per year from pollution, in some cases cheating their legal mandate for profit.

 

[EVDRVN]

FTFY

I hear these comments all the time. I have spoken directly to more than 5000 EV users about their EV usage, habits, buying choices, etc. As a an EV driver for more than 15 years and a person in the industry for almost as long I find that the Tesla bubble is pretty strong in some at times. As an investor, owner and Tesla business partner I found I had to unwind myself from my Tesla biases over time. We all get caught in our circles of thinking, I spend thousands of hours unwinding misinformation as have others here I am sure.

 

[gene]

On the Roadster, yes, we got it. On the Model S, I don't remember it, and we probably would have got it had it been offered.

Yes. It was offered on the S in early 2013.

 

[NicoV]

My delivery appointment for tomorrow has just been rescheduled to sunday 31/3, just as I predicted many weeks ago.
So they will be open in Europe.

And it’s rescheduled again to tomorrow!
I’m familiar enough with Tesla to expect this for an EOQ delivery, but I think other Tesla customers don’t find this funny.

 

[S3XY]

Toyota is am important company. Here is a link from Toyota at CES in 2017. Their research head starts talking at 14:30 in. It is worth a view it you want to see how serious Toyota is. Make your own conclusions.

My takeaway from this presentation is "This is hard, people. Don't expect anything from us in the next decade or so."

 

[humbaba]

I hear these comments all the time. I have spoken directly to more than 5000 EV users about their EV usage, habits, buying choices, etc. As a an EV driver for more than 15 years and a person in the industry for almost as long I find that the Tesla bubble is pretty strong in some at times. As an investor, owner and Tesla business partner I found I had to unwind myself from my Tesla biases over time. We all get caught in our circles of thinking, I spend thousands of hours unwinding misinformation as have others here I am sure.

ah, I'll see your anecdote and raise you mine.

If you actually read the corrections you will see that I was not being dismissive, I was -- quite literally -- fixing your presentation to fit the facts. Note that I chose "some" because it was accurate without devaluing your statement. More accurate, but also devaluing of your statement, would have been "very few", "insignificant numbers", or similar.

Just taking your claimed 5000 EV user at face value, that represents about a week of Tesla production. Even your unattested claim fails notability. In truth, I doubt the number and I doubt your interpretation. But it doesn't even matter. Your views are yours and that is fine. But they are no more valid than others expressed here.

 

[EVDRVN]

Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) | Twitter

Tasha Keeney (@TashaARK) | Twitter

Andrea S. James (@AndreaSJames) | Twitter

Why ICE OEMs are handicapped relative to new EV companies

• At ICE OEMs most car components and most of the production process is outsourced. This reduces share of the value chain and reduces profit per car. It also makes the company much less agile to rapid changes in technology.
• EVs only share 10%-20% of components and production process with ICEs.
• EVs will be lower margin products for ICE OEMs for several years. EV product launches will heavily cannibalize a brands equivalent higher margin ICE car creating a large disincentive for high quality EV launches. Currently all ICE OEMs sell as few EVs as possible while meeting their legal emissions mandates. This is why their cars are all low volume, sub standard offerings.
• Sales channel is outsourced to dealerships who are not incentivized to sell EVs. Dealerships make a majority of their profits from maintenance revenue, which is much lower for EVs and requires different expertise.
• ICE service networks and service technicians do not have training in electronics and battery tech and are not able to service EVs without significant investment and significant new hires.
• Key IP and barrier to entry in the auto industry has been engine design and lack of funding for car startups. Engines are now redundant and Tesla has proved the investment case for investing in EV disruptors.
• ICE OEMs have a 50 year+ culture of working towards minimal annual incremental improvements rather than rapid innovation. Not suited to the rapid change needed to follow the EV/battery & motor experience curves.
• Unionized and inflexible to automation and modernization.
• Significant historic pension and other liabilities built over 50+ years.
• Own $trns of legacy ICE assets, many of which will have to be written down as part of the EV transition.
• Mostly trying to fit EVs into their old production lines and existing designs, EV companies have flexibility to design from scratch and make full use of the potential safety and ease of manufacturing improvements.
• Own a short term loan portfolio of ICE leases and auto loans which needs to be refinanced continuously, but the underlying assets will depreciate rapidly with the EV transition
• Shareholders value short term profits, dividends and share buybacks and are not supportive of short term pain for a long term vision, or investing heavily in the future.
• Traditional brands are tarnished with a history of killing 1-4 million people per year from pollution, in some cases cheating their legal mandate for profit.

So this means Toyota could not make a viable EV model? They have the weight of these issues but that does not prevent them from building one, they already did this. They have considerable EV development like other companies and if they scrapped everything to go all EV they could but of course at a significant handicap.

 

[Cartegena]

... or MXWL may just have a high percentage of small holders, a group that's notorious for ignoring tender offers.

What happens to those small holders' MXWL shares if they sit on their hands and the deal closes? (Some may have bought MXWL as a part of a basket of high risk lottery tickets that would pay-off "bigly" if just a few survived, and are disappointed that their MXWL ticket is being pre-empted before the first numbered ball lands.)