Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

Mission Possible/Impossible .... Nway at 5442 (398 registrations today) for March ... will/won't do 6K by Sunday ..

+usual Sat/Sun volume is no-existent or low .. but this is EOQ .. ~ cheers!!

 

[JRP3]

Through a local EV group I know of somebody that owns a Rav4 EV. Few days ago he reported hitting 86,000 miles.

I know a guy who owns 4 of them, plus he built a range extending trailer from another RAV4 pack.

 

[Lessmog]

Probably still the JP Morgan "downgrade" of Tesla.

Pre-market shrugged it off for the nonsense it indeed is, but I guess there are JP Morgan clients with no pre-market trading access - so their sell orders would execute in the morning.

As a reminder, this is Ryan Brinkman's TSLA ratings track record from Tipranks:

View attachment 391499

He seems to have a real talent at picking lows when downgrading Tesla, in a "sell low, buy high" strategy that averaged about -10%. (Plus losses from transaction costs.)

Especially the fact that he managed to issue many of his downgrades during larger drops is suggesting that the motivation of his Tesla downgrades is often to magnify short-term down-trends.

Isn't it curious that someone called Brinkman is so firmly connected to drops?

 

[Tslynk67]

BTW., there's a curious thing I noticed this quarter: Electrek reported no leaked Tesla production figures, at all.

In Q3 there were several leaks, very close to the actual production figures.

For example there was this article right before the delivery report:

Tesla produced a record ~80,000 vehicles in Q3 and deliveries could be even crazier

"A source familiar with the matter has told Electrek that Tesla produced a record ~80,000 vehicles this quarter."
​

Eventual Q3 production was indeed 80k vehicles: 80,142.

Electrek either had a source who hacked into the innermost networks, or had a very high level source.

This Electrek source dried up in Q1'19 AFAICS.

Hmmm, could have been Vicky?

 

[JRP3]

Hmmm, could have been Vicky?

That's been discussed.

 

[elasalle]

Hmmm, could have been Vicky?

How many people got laid-off? Low probability based on statistics

 

[Artful Dodger]

Very helpful post. Just to clarify, SR+ take-rate is higher than 70%”

I think this means that 70% of customers buying the SR version also upgrade to SR+ (a great deal for the extra few bucks.

F/C's comment specifies separately that the take-rate on AP is 80% in N. America, 90% in EU.

Also, I've read that Tesla produced an initial batch of 500 SRs, and those may indeed be the only so-equipped Model 3s in Q1.

Sounds like the online order-festival with the openg of SR orders turned into a stampede when Elon announce the impeding 3% price increase for everything above the base SR. Brilliant marketing.

Gonna need 3 wheel barrows to haul away all the cash from SR+/AP/FSD orders at end of Q1. Mabbe need 4, cuz Model Y orders.

Cheers!

 

[Carl Raymond]

I am assuming that the 3rd day of the 31st month is after the end of Q1, right?

(I kid, I kid).

 

[Tslynk67]

Mission Possible/Impossible .... Nway at 5442 (398 registrations today) for March ... will/won't do 6K by Sunday ..

+usual Sat/Sun volume is no-existent or low .. but this is EOQ .. ~ cheers!!

Nah, I don't think so. If I go back a week or so I was saying that I'd hope they hit 5k for March, so I'm pretty pleased where we stand right now.

 

[Words of HABIT]

 

[Tslynk67]

That's been discussed.

Yeah, OK, I haven't been in front of my 'puter all day so was behind...

 

[elasalle]

Tesla Files Patent Application For Electricity Generation That Bypasses The Grid

 

[lklundin]

I presume here you are referring to Elon here? Elon followed both the letter and the spirit of the settlement contract and court order, if fact both he and Tesla did significantly more to comply than the settlement required.

The only reaction Elon's conduct should earn from the judge is approval.

I agree that it's not over until the court rules.

Also, I believe Elon Musk was completely sincere when he expressed his respect for the (US) justice system - that was in the interview with Leslie Stahl,

- the last few seconds of this clip.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Tesla business partner?? (care to explain)
Are you on the dark side now

If selling take out at the local show room is considered partner to Tesla, count me in!

 

[EVDRVN]

Toyota has integrated manufacturing (as Munro says, it looks otherwise). Different than most other OEMs.

As Munro says, I seem to remember many definitive things he said- lol

 

[EVDRVN]

If selling take out at the local show room is considered partner to Tesla, count me in!

That may be more lucrative

 

[lklundin]

That's been discussed.

On that topic, what is our current, best estimate for Q1 S3X production?

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Those areas with concrete on the ground look somewhat irregular to have been excavated for re-bar and formed to pour a factory floor of much load bearing strength.

Maybe the ground is not the floor. Maybe what y'all are calling the "roof" level is a space frame that will be the "floor" (you can have parking and container stowage on the ground under the pilings, like we do in Galveston, because you can move that stuff out of the way of Pesky Weather).

 

[hacer]

I'm not privy to inside information at Toyota, but from the outside it appears they have completely pinned their hopes on solid state batteries. ...

Nah, they still have their hopes pinned on hydrogen Toyota Mirai – The Turning Point It kinda proves that they're not very smart.

 

[Don TLR]

Some weekend OT,

Both of these sorts of processes are only really affordable at large scale, which is why on that argument alone I didn't think Tesla would produce boards in-house. Nothing technical is stopping Tesla from bringing it in house, but the scale required to do so cheaper than outsourcing wouldn't be there, not to mention getting the right people to run it, etc. Outsourcing it was the only obvious conclusion to me Outsourcing to the USA would be cheaper than insourcing most likely, and outsourcing to Asia definitely cheaper.

Definitely not an In House project for Tesla, my current view..