Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZachF]

Nah, they still have their hopes pinned on hydrogen Toyota Mirai – The Turning Point It kinda proves that they're not very smart.

Japanese subsidies are much better for HCF cars than BEVs right now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don't get why they think this. Are solid state batteries expected to be cheap from the get-go? I wouldn't think so. So they'll just have a new battery technology that they'll have to wait for the price to drop on so they can make a profitable EV.

The mythical mass market solid state lithium battery would need these minimum specs:

• Energy density:
  • gravimetic: > 0.5 Kwh/kg
  • volumetric: > 1Kwh/L
• Recharge rate:
  • 3C sustained charge rate (ie: 250 KW into an 83Kwhr pack)
    
  • provides 300 mi range in 15 min
• Life cycle:
  • 20 years calendar life
    
  • 7,500 cycles to 90% capacity
• Fire resistance/Safety:
  • neutral at cell level (not enough heat to cause chain reaction)
    
  • endothermic at pack level (ie: fire suppressive as a unit)
  • crash tolerant
  • spill resistant
• Cost:
  • no more than $50/KWhr capacity at pack level
  • < equivalent gas powertrain w/o considering envir. costs
  • 100% recyclable/reusable
  • uses no rare earths or conflict minerals

This list basically just doubles current performance specs at half the cost, without giving up any safety or environmental benefits. Easy, wot? Yeah, it'll be a little while yet...

Cheers!

 

[glen thomson]

Mr beast finally bought the tesla hes said he would if elon musk hosted meme review

so you can increase your model 3 estimates by one, your welcome

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Hey guys, guess what? It's another FUD piece from CNBC. Shocking!

I'll spare you the link and paste a good laugh from the first bullet.

• Crashed Tesla vehicles, sold at junk yards and auctions, contain deeply personal and unencrypted data including info from drivers' paired mobile devices, and video showing what happened just before the accident.

If you sync your phone to you car then never erase it.....that info is still there! Who would've thunk it?

 

[Cherry Wine]

On that topic, what is our current, best estimate for Q1 S3X production?

15-20k. @Fact Checking posted a good summary earlier where I believe that was the rough estimate.

 

[Krugerrand]

And it’s rescheduled again to tomorrow!
I’m familiar enough with Tesla to expect this for an EOQ delivery, but I think other Tesla customers don’t find this funny.

BUT!!!! They ARE communicating, so there’s that.

 

[EVDRVN]

Hey guys, guess what? It's another FUD piece from CNBC. Shocking!

I'll spare you the link and paste a good laugh from the first bullet.

• Crashed Tesla vehicles, sold at junk yards and auctions, contain deeply personal and unencrypted data including info from drivers' paired mobile devices, and video showing what happened just before the accident.

If you sync your phone to you car then never erase it.....that info is still there! Who would've thunk it?

I won't feed the FUD machine with specifics and did not read the piece but there is some validity here in that some critical and enhanced data can be accessed easier than that of ICE cars. This is a privacy concern at many levels and more serious than the common phone data shared in many vehicles. Tesla would likely never allow an owner to clear this data and third parties now have access to this where it is difficult to obtain from other vehicles. I have seen this type of data and I would not want it to be easily accessed by others. I would expect this to be a growing concern with other vehicles in the future.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

View attachment 391647

That graph just shows how much of the world does it wrong.

ISO 8601 - Wikipedia is the only logical method.

 

[JRP3]

Yeah, OK, I haven't been in front of my 'puter all day so was behind...

Understood, but I make a real effort to catch up before posting.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I agree that it's a concern and no thanks to FUDsters. A co-worker recently asked about how I can get my car serviced since Tesla is heading for bankruptcy. I don't expect everyone to follow anti-fud news site considering they are usually niche and not you know..CN freaking N.

Really, it may be time for Tesla to start advertising. Not for name recognition, they certainly have that. But mainstream ads give the impression of permanence. They could be wildly imaginative/quirky (Apple 1984) yet still give the “we’re real” message.

 

[S3XY]

On that topic, what is our current, best estimate for Q1 S3X production?

I'm married, not looking good.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Definitely not an In House project for Tesla, my current view..
View attachment 391655

Is that a Tesla board?

Board layout and routing could be done in house easily enough with just a few skilled employees (relative to actual fabrication of anything), though they can also be contracted out just as easily...

 

[Krugerrand]

Very true, hates and techies, etc. The more concerning issue is a large buying group that fears a companies solvency and their large investment in a vehicle. This includes all types of buyers. I see this as a valid concern, I have owned three Tesla's and I don't mind the risk/reward.

Stop trying to make your reality everyone elses. Most people don’t in fact know or care about a company’s solvency or any large investment vehicle if and until it affects them directly. Like not until its doors close and then people are quite happy to buy everything in inventory at greatly reduced prices. Happens all the time. People are vultures.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon Musk‏ @elonmusk 5 minutes ago

Elon Musk Retweeted sc

"Anyone who purchased full self-driving will get FSD computer upgrade for free. This is the only change between Autopilot HW2.5 & HW3. Going forward “HW3” will just be called FSD Computer, which is accurate. No change to vehicle sensors or wire harness needed. This is v important."

sc @samscho
@elonmusk there's a lot of rumors going on about the HW3 and APH3 not being a free upgrade for those who purchased FSD. Can you please elaborate if this will indeed be a free upgrade for those who have FSD? Thanks so much!​

 

[CaliBear1]

The "cat" coming out of the bag is a "cat-o-nine tails" and it is going to be used to full effect on Shorts and allied analcysts!

Given that the leaks were to friendly outlets I believe they were officially unofficial. Tesla may have changed its mind about giving analysts a heads up, especially if they were planning on a surprise. I may well be disappointed, but even though I expect it to be small I believe they are pushing for a profit this quarter regardless of guidance. And, given the practice of analysts engineering misses, I would expect Tesla to not leak any production numbers as that would let the cat out of the bag.

(I'm not trying to suggest that cats should be kept in bags, or be sacked. After all, everybody wants to be a cat, because a cat's the only cat that knows where its at )

 

[Krugerrand]

I agree that it's a concern and no thanks to FUDsters. A co-worker recently asked about how I can get my car serviced since Tesla is heading for bankruptcy. I don't expect everyone to follow anti-fud news site considering they are usually niche and not you know..CN freaking N.

This is how I answer such ignorance:

Well, George, the same way every person on the planet, who owns a discontinued car model, gets their vehicle serviced; Pixie dust and unicorn poo, George. Pixie dust and unicorn poo.

 

[Pras]

Really, it may be time for Tesla to start advertising. Not for name recognition, they certainly have that. But mainstream ads give the impression of permanence. They could be wildly imaginative/quirky (Apple 1984) yet still give the “we’re real” message.

No need to advertise till there is a credible competition for Tesla. I don’t see that for next 3-5 years. So better to put that $ in better places.

 

[scaesare]

Prefer the seats in the Bolt. (Model 3 seats are VERY scooped.)

@bro1999 is suddenly in better company, even if it is a small party.

 

[humbaba]

Hey guys, guess what? It's another FUD piece from CNBC. Shocking!

I'll spare you the link and paste a good laugh from the first bullet.

• Crashed Tesla vehicles, sold at junk yards and auctions, contain deeply personal and unencrypted data including info from drivers' paired mobile devices, and video showing what happened just before the accident.

If you sync your phone to you car then never erase it.....that info is still there! Who would've thunk it?

Certainly not a Tesla-specific problem, but I do see that as a problem. In the event of an accident the owner is not likely to have the opportunity to erase their information. IMO a Tesla solution would be to allow remote triggering of a data purge. Maybe this is already possible, but if so I'm not aware of it.

 

[adiggs]

The mythical mass market solid state lithium battery would need these minimum specs:

• Energy density:
  • gravimetic: > 0.5 Kwh/kg
  • volumetric: > 1Kwh/L
• Recharge rate:
  • 3C sustained charge rate (ie: 250MW into an 83Kwhr pack)
    
  • provides 300 mi range in 15 min
• Life cycle:
  • 20 years calendar life
    
  • 7,500 cycles to 90% capacity
• Fire resistance/Safety:
  • neutral at cell level (not enough heat to cause chain reaction)
    
  • endothermic at pack level (ie: fire suppressive as a unit)
  • crash tolerant
  • spill resistant
• Cost:
  • no more than $50/KWhr capacity at pack level
  • < equivalent gas powertrain w/o considering envir. costs
  • 100% recyclable/reusable
  • uses no rare earths or conflict minerals

This list basically just doubles current performance specs at half the cost, without giving up any safety or environmental benefits. Easy, wot? Yeah, it'll be a little while yet...

Cheers!

This seems like a pretty high bar for minimum specs.

It seems to me that any battery technology that matches current battery technology while adding the Fire resistance / Safety category stuff you have listed above would pretty much immediately replace the current technology on that dimension alone. I realize that it's not all that visible to most people, most of the time, but it would be the end of the EV car fires and related stories, and be of big value to the overall adoption of battery technology.