Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[betstarship]

I'd call it 1/3rd macro market retreat, and 2/3rds simple fear and uncertainty over Elon's new distraction with Twitter.

Tesla itself has incredibly strong financials

Dude's so confident in Tesla that he doesn't feel he needs to be at the earnings calls for a couple of the past quarters

 

[bkp_duke]

So, with all the various discussions on here lately what is the general consensus regarding the stock plunge? Is this purely macro driven or is there something negative specific to Tesla I missed?

Dan

The best explanation I read, and I think it was somewhere in this thread, is that if Elon is really putting that many shares up as collateral, and already has done it with the banks, then it could be the banks selling massive puts on those shares as a hedge. Ironic that their hedge pushed down the value of the asset being used for collateral (or maybe that was their point?).

But then again, perhaps Elon hasn't even put the collateral up yet, and it's all just fear selling. There's a LOT of fear in the market.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Dude's so confident in Tesla that he doesn't feel he needs to be at the earnings calls for a couple of the past quarters

When you're growing 60% year-on-year and putting a couple billion in the bank per quarter... yeah.

 

[navguy12]

Truth! Not ‘my’ truth, but Universal truth.

This whole conversation is reminding me of Cloud Atlas circa 2144 (interview with archivist involving a discussion about versions of truth)

 

[Ogre]

I'd call it 1/3rd macro market retreat, and 2/3rds simple fear and uncertainty over Elon's new distraction with Twitter.

Tesla itself has incredibly strong financials

I had to re-read this twice.

Thought you were suggesting there would be a 33% drop in SP and was going to call you out on it.

Yeah... just a bit of uncertainty piled on top of rough macros.

 

[Thekiwi]

You know a good solution to this whole saga that would benefit both Elon & Tesla, whereby Elon gets a whole bunch of cash for his Twitter acquisition, and Tesla gets a new valuable asset with massive future potential - would be for Tesla to acquire The Boring Company.

Tesla has the right amount of free cash to do it (let’s say a hypothetical ~$10 Billion purchase price), and Musk would still effectively maintain control of The Boring Company Via Tesla, and not have to use as much in the way of margin loans against his Tesla shares.

Would have to be done all 100% completely by the book, which I presume would involve Elon approaching the Tesla board with the proposal and the board deciding in a completely independent manner on approval or not, and potentially making it a shareholder vote. (Not familiar with the details for what would happen in this sort of takeover scenario, so would love others to chime in with what would be involved)

 

[ZenRockGarden]

You know a good solution to this whole saga that would benefit both Elon & Tesla, whereby Elon gets a whole bunch of cash for his Twitter acquisition, and Tesla gets a new valuable asset with massive future potential - would be for Tesla to acquire The Boring Company.

Tesla has the right amount of free cash to do it (let’s say a hypothetical ~$10 Billion purchase price), and Musk would still effectively maintain control of The Boring Company Via Tesla, and not have to use as much in the way of margin loans against his Tesla shares.

Would have to be done all 100% completely by the book, which I presume would involve Elon approaching the Tesla board with the proposal and the board deciding in a completely independent manner on approval or not, and potentially making it a shareholder vote. (Not familiar with the details for what would happen in this sort of takeover scenario, so would love others to chime in with what would be involved)

The last thing Tesla needs is more distractions. They should take their billions in free cash and relentlessly drive the new factories, supplies, superchargers, new models, and whatever R&D applies to all of that list. Drilling large holes is not a priority (nor is tweeting, but that's another matter)

 

[jhm]

Did anyone have N-3?

View attachment 798206

Where's 69?

 

[Thekiwi]

The last thing Tesla needs is more distractions. They should take their billions in free cash and relentlessly drive the new factories, supplies, superchargers, new models, and whatever R&D applies to all of that list. Drilling large holes is not a priority (nor is tweeting, but that's another matter)

Wouldn’t be a distraction at all - it could operate in the exact same manner it does already as a subsidiary that continues to use a bunch of Tesla Tech. It basically already operates like a tesla subsidiary, given its mission, heavy use of batteries/Tesla cars, not to mention it has the same CEO / Chief Engineer.

 

[Ogre]

You know a good solution to this whole saga that would benefit both Elon & Tesla, whereby Elon gets a whole bunch of cash for his Twitter acquisition, and Tesla gets a new valuable asset with massive future potential - would be for Tesla to acquire The Boring Company.

Tesla has the right amount of free cash to do it (let’s say a hypothetical ~$10 Billion purchase price), and Musk would still effectively maintain control of The Boring Company Via Tesla, and not have to use as much in the way of margin loans against his Tesla shares.

Would have to be done all 100% completely by the book, which I presume would involve Elon approaching the Tesla board with the proposal and the board deciding in a completely independent manner on approval or not, and potentially making it a shareholder vote. (Not familiar with the details for what would happen in this sort of takeover scenario, so would love others to chime in with what would be involved)

No.

Neither Tesla management nor The Boring Company should be involved in Twitter. Twitter is not part of their missions and shouldn't be.

If Tesla and TBC belong together, that is a question and should be decided independent of any Musk cash-flow issues which revolve around his choice to purchase Twitter.

 

[Tommy O]

Would have to be done all 100% completely by the book, which I presume would involve Elon approaching the Tesla board with the proposal and the board deciding in a completely independent manner on approval or not, and potentially making it a shareholder vote. (Not familiar with the details for what would happen in this sort of takeover scenario, so would love others to chime in with what would be involved)

Reminds me of a question I meant to ask a long time ago. What are the requirements for a company like Tesla to get shareholder approval to purchase another company? I know “small” acquisitions don’t require approval, but I don’t know what “small” means, legally.

 

[Thekiwi]

No.

Neither Tesla management nor The Boring Company should be involved in Twitter. Twitter is not part of their missions and shouldn't be.

If Tesla and TBC belong together, that is a question and should be decided independent of any Musk cash-flow issues which revolve around his choice to purchase Twitter.

???

I never said Tesla or TBC should be involved in any way with Twitter…?

(Only that a Sale of TBC to Tesla would eventuate in Elon having a large amount of Cash for his Twitter acquisition, and mean there would be less financing of Elons Twitter acquisition against his Tesla stock holdings. So the hypothetical deal would mean Twitter had less to do with Tesla actually)

 

[ZachF]

This whole conversation is reminding me of Cloud Atlas circa 2144 (interview with archivist involving a discussion about versions of truth)

 

[jhm]

You know a good solution to this whole saga that would benefit both Elon & Tesla, whereby Elon gets a whole bunch of cash for his Twitter acquisition, and Tesla gets a new valuable asset with massive future potential - would be for Tesla to acquire The Boring Company.

Tesla has the right amount of free cash to do it (let’s say a hypothetical ~$10 Billion purchase price), and Musk would still effectively maintain control of The Boring Company Via Tesla, and not have to use as much in the way of margin loans against his Tesla shares.

Would have to be done all 100% completely by the book, which I presume would involve Elon approaching the Tesla board with the proposal and the board deciding in a completely independent manner on approval or not, and potentially making it a shareholder vote. (Not familiar with the details for what would happen in this sort of takeover scenario, so would love others to chime in with what would be involved)

I like it. Talk about vertical integration. Tesla builds the EVs, powers them, operates as robotaxis, and builds underground tunnels that only EVs can use.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

Elon is already forming X-holding umbrella companies to join-up his many adventures into a collective. I have mixed feelings about that, but I can see why he's doing it.

Merging more stuff into Tesla is an anti-pattern, and also not necessary given he's already going into holding-company pattern

 

[Tommy O]

I like it. Talk about vertical integration. Tesla builds the EVs, powers them, operates as robotaxis, and builds underground tunnels that only EVs can use.

Would like it more if they had done this a few years ago. The recent round of funding gave it a valuation that’s much higher than it was back then…

 

[Chunky Jr.]

sounds like things are going well at Giga Texas...

Tesla Giga Texas continues deliberate Model Y ramp, hints at upcoming delivery volumes

Tesla Gigafactory Texas may still be following a deliberate ramp, but work in the facility is still ongoing at a rapid pace. As the factory continues to produce Model Ys, preparations at Giga Texas’ staging area are hinting at the volume of vehicles that will be coming out of the recently-opened...

www.teslarati.com

 

[Ogre]

???

I never said Tesla or TBC should be involved in any way with Twitter…?

(Only that a Sale of TBC to Tesla would eventuate in Elon having a large amount of Cash for his Twitter acquisition, and mean there would be less financing of Elons Twitter acquisition against his Tesla stock holdings. So the hypothetical deal would mean Twitter had less to do with Tesla actually)

It either makes sense to merge Tesla and TBC or not. Musk needing cash to buy Twitter does not relate to that question at all.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA After-Hours Quotes​

Data last updated Apr 27, 2022 08:00 PM ET.
This page will resume updating on Apr 28, 2022 04:00 PM ET.

Consolidated Last Sale	$895.55 +14.04 (+1.59%)
After-Hours Volume	394,800
After-Hours High	$896.5 (07:59:06 PM)
After-Hours Low	$881.2 (04:00:09 PM)

Cheers!

 

[StealthP3D]

I know that's what most people here believe. I have a feeling supply constraints will keep Tesla's growth very close to 50%-60% and not allow much more for the next year or two. I also think the 4680 ramp will be slower than most think it will, and the CT production start will be at the end of 2023 and not sooner.

EoY 2024 I think we'll have revenues of $194 billion, EPS of about $25 per share, a PE ratio around 50, and a share price of about $1300.

I know it's less than most here are expecting for 2024. I hope I'm very wrong, but my gut feeling is Wall Street is going to hold us down for awhile longer, for as long as they can.

Just be aware that the act of stating that you hope you are very wrong will do nothing to mitigate the loss of respect I will have for you when your analysis turns out to be far more bearish than the reality that actually unfolds.