Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[IDKWhatIamDoin]

If Musk had used Twitter in the same manner as Trump (Putin) did, we would have much fewer ICE cars on the roads and a very much diminished fossil fuel industry. So perhaps Twitter is (or could be) very much involved in Tesla's mission and success - and the Stock Price .
Perhaps this is changing now?

For me i am concerned that Musk has stirred a hornets nest and making an example out of him would be the goal of all the politicians who these past few weeks have vehemently opposed his purchase of twitter and the free speech he wants to bring.

I threw down 100k this week on Tesla. Lost a lot almost immediately. I don’t care i want to hold it for years and years, but i am greatly concerned after having watched the American bureaucrats (legalized mobsters) this past decade.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Samsung with some interesting chip commentary. It's not just disruptions causing chip shortages, but Samsung and others prioritizing high margin server/memory chips over production of non-memory and custom chips.

I guess the rush for market share by their cloud customers is hurting chip supply too. Sounds like it's easing somewhat at least.

Samsung Elec sees component shortages persisting in H2, solid server chip demand

Samsung Electronics Co Ltd said on Thursday it expects firm data centre demand for high-margin memory chips to continue in the second half, but warned component shortages will likely persist as well.

www.reuters.com

 

[Singuy]

I have been thinking that in today's world, deliberate is a euphemism for "occupy, vanquish, enslave".

I thought deliberate means pre-planned

 

[Gigapress]

​

You know a good solution to this whole saga that would benefit both Elon & Tesla, whereby Elon gets a whole bunch of cash for his Twitter acquisition, and Tesla gets a new valuable asset with massive future potential - would be for Tesla to acquire The Boring Company.

Tesla has the right amount of free cash to do it (let’s say a hypothetical ~$10 Billion purchase price), and Musk would still effectively maintain control of The Boring Company Via Tesla, and not have to use as much in the way of margin loans against his Tesla shares.

Would have to be done all 100% completely by the book, which I presume would involve Elon approaching the Tesla board with the proposal and the board deciding in a completely independent manner on approval or not, and potentially making it a shareholder vote. (Not familiar with the details for what would happen in this sort of takeover scenario, so would love others to chime in with what would be involved)

I’ve thought a lot about this possibility. I doubt they’ll do it.

1) Tesla and Boring Co already share so much technical know how, mission alignment and trust that the main advantages of an acquisition are diminished. Pace of innovation is all that matters in the long run; if innovation is already happening at top speed even with the companies being separate, then there’s not much justification for slowing things down to deal with the complexity and litigation associated with an acquisition like this.

2) Legal and public perception risks of excessive power and monopolization only intensify if an acquisition is attempted.

3) Boring Co has more than enough capital after the $675M Series C raise that they can probably reach positive free cash flow with needing to be public. These tunnels are set to be ridiculously profitable and pay for themselves in fares in less than two years. Private company status has many benefits, of which Elon and the Tesla board of directors are well aware.

 

[Singuy]

Their PE was like 11. Anything not directly pointing to bankruptcy should have given a boost.

I thought they were getting a re-rating due to slowing growth. Their revenue numbers and guidance said exactly that so...what was the upbeat surprise?

 

[InDaClub]

For me i am concerned that Musk has stirred a hornets nest and making an example out of him would be the goal of all the politicians who these past few weeks have vehemently opposed his purchase of twitter and the free speech he wants to bring.

I threw down 100k this week on Tesla. Lost a lot almost immediately. I don’t care i want to hold it for years and years, but i am greatly concerned after having watched the American bureaucrats (legalized mobsters) this past decade.

If you haven't sold, you haven't lost anything.

 

[Boomer19]

Did you guys see the headline for FB? Their guide is trash and the stock pops 18%. Was bankruptcy priced in before earnings or I smell this entire bear market BS?

Facebook forecast points to possible revenue drop for the first time after decade of growth

If Facebook's revenue in the second quarter comes in at the lower end of its forecast, it would be the company's first revenue drop.

www.cnbc.com

bad is the new good!

 

[Tommy O]

1) Tesla and Boring Co already share so much technical know how, mission alignment and trust that the main advantages of an acquisition are diminished. Pace of innovation is all that matters in the long run; if innovation is already happening at top speed even with the companies being separate, then there’s not much justification for slowing things down to deal with the complexity and litigation associated with an acquisition like this.

2) Legal and public perception risks of excessive power and monopolization only intensify if an acquisition is attempted.

3) Boring Co has more than enough capital after the $675M Series C raise that they can probably reach positive free cash flow with needing to be public. These tunnels are set to be ridiculously profitable and pay for themselves in fares in less than two years. Private company status has many benefits, of which Elon and the Tesla board of directors are well aware.

Disagree on 1 and 2.

1 seems to be an implied argument against vertical integration.

2 makes no sense whatsoever. Imagine the headlines “failing EV manufacturer prosecuted for monopolistic acquisition…of a business that makes no sense” - every single media company in the world, since they all hate Tesla and the boring co and think they’re destined to fail

 

[Skipdd]

For me i am concerned that Musk has stirred a hornets nest and making an example out of him would be the goal of all the politicians who these past few weeks have vehemently opposed his purchase of twitter and the free speech he wants to bring.

I threw down 100k this week on Tesla. Lost a lot almost immediately. I don’t care i want to hold it for years and years, but i am greatly concerned after having watched the American bureaucrats (legalized mobsters) this past decade.

I’m sure there will be others who are more seasoned (long-term investors) who may offer you some perspective, but as you are a recent investor, and as I was in your shoes almost a year ago, I will offer you mine. I have been a product owner since 2015. What finally caused me to step in as an investor was reading this forum and considering the analyses of various posters who discussed the ways in which Tesla was building competitive advantage in literally every aspect of its business. I then learned how volatile the stock is and the drivers for that. But I watched as the machine that is Tesla continued and continues to grow even more competitive advantage. Yes Elon is part of the volatility, but I don’t worry so much because of what I’ve seen. He’s attracted all sorts of enemies and it hasn’t affected the ability to grow. Not saying I don’t look over my shoulder, but I still believe the fundamentals of what I see. I have with my SO’s blessing more than trebled our initial investment.

I would also offer that for all the political naysayers, you will also find some recognizing him for taking courageous actions, like what he has done with Starlink in Ukraine. There really isn’t anyone in the industrial world like him today. Still, he has built a very strong leadership team in the companies he leads and/or creates. That is another part of the competitive advantage he has created.

 

[thesmokingman]

I think all of the claimed Austin VINs were proven to be fake. Especially because as far as we know right now, Austin is only making MY AWD for now, which is not yet available in the configurator.

And last update I saw from the employee delivered Austin vehicles, they're still running some engineering tests on them:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1518326019173847045

But we do have reports of car carriers full of MY leaving Austin: Tesla Giga Texas continues deliberate Model Y ramp, hints at upcoming delivery volumes So maybe they're staging MY AWD at delivery centers for customer deliveries soon? Or maybe just delivery to employees outside of Texas.

Check out the top glass, it's not see thru. Some in the thread think they're testing solar panels. It must be so exciting being an engineer there cuz of all the interesting things they research.

 

[Singuy]

Check out the top glass, it's not see thru. Some in the thread think they're testing solar panels. It must be so exciting being an engineer there cuz of all the interesting things they research.

Well the Y's roof is not very see thru to begin with.

 

[thesmokingman]

Well the Y's roof is not very see thru to begin with.

It's not just see but you can see the color/texture difference.

 

[Tommy O]

Elon at 87M twitter followers…that seems like a huge increase in a small amount of time. @Artful Dodger has been tracking this, I think?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon at 87M twitter followers…that seems like a huge increase in a small amount of time. @Artful Dodger has been tracking this, I think?

Bookmark "Unread in topic:" Elon & Twitter | TMC post #281

This kind of minutae belongs in the other thread, IMO.

 

[AudubonB]

I thought deliberate means pre-planned

Should I wait for input from others?


Naaah.


De-liberate. Got it?

 

[Gigapress]

​

I know that's what most people here believe. I have a feeling supply constraints will keep Tesla's growth very close to 50%-60% and not allow much more for the next year or two. I also think the 4680 ramp will be slower than most think it will, and the CT production start will be at the end of 2023 and not sooner.

EoY 2024 I think we'll have revenues of $194 billion, EPS of about $25 per share, a PE ratio around 50, and a share price of about $1300.

I know it's less than most here are expecting for 2024. I hope I'm very wrong, but my gut feeling is Wall Street is going to hold us down for awhile longer, for as long as they can.

$25 EPS off of $194B revenue is only 15% operating margin.

Q1 had 19.2% operating margin which is going to continue increasing with economies of scale. Unless either gross margins collapse to like 18%, or somehow operating leverage declines with higher production volume.

So that is not conservative…it’s mathematically impossible.

Conservative might be to project operating margin hovers at 22% in 2024. Then your $194B revenue translates to $37 EPS and with your conservative 50x multiple you’d project a $1,850 TSLA price.

 

[Discoducky]

They would have said "electronic vehicle company". That's how the cool kids say it.

For the record, I've heard only true bears on the telly' use that term. Whenever I've heard it, I then know, without a doubt, the person speaking has either very little actual knowledge of EVs, is intentionally being derogatory or has some other negative agenda.

 

[dhanson865]

If you haven't figured out how much money the Austin plant is going to be printing this year let me give you a clue on how hot the market is for any sort of even functional EV right now. And if Model Y money printer doesn't wow you wait a year and watch the Cyber money printer go brrrr.

2022 GMC Hummer EV Pickup Edition 1 - 1,000 Horsepower, Tri-Motor AWD, Removable Roof Panels, CrabWalk Mode went for $260,420

https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/udho10

 

[insaneoctane]

…my gut feeling is we might hold steady between $900-$1200 for a year or two, despite posting record earnings quarter after quarter.

I can’t remember a post that I hoped was wrong more.

 

[MadScientist23]

I can’t remember a post that I hoped was wrong more.

I really feel like for that to happen we'd have to be in a full fledged recession, and a bad one. The charts I've seen for the P/E ratios of big caps is about as compressed as it has ever been since 1960. Unless the economy unwinds quite a bit the money has to go somewhere. I don't expect this kind of thing to happen. Even during recent recessions I think amazon didn't compress like that during it's early S curve growth. Patience is the key right. Buy the dips and decide if you're a trader or an investor. I prefer the latter.