Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

Seems totally unrealistic to me too:

• S/X is still build to order to a large degree, so how would Tesla end up with 7k extra units?
• 7,000 units would also tie up about $700m of (much needed) working capital.
• There's no ships underway AFAIK, and new S/X orders have May and later delivery times. I.e. most S/X production spoken for.

And he's one of the more bullish analysts.

That's the consensus.

 

[tinm]

just in case anyone wanna watch - lots of TSLAQ - saw Gerber and ARK ... didn't watch the whole thing though ...

Right on the RealVision website it says this:

Note number 3: "Unfiltered Opinion" "WE have no agenda. No editorial bias."

And yet, the host of the show, Grant Williams, flat-out says, at 02:55, "Me, I think the whole thing is a gigantic fraud. And it's going to end up hitting the wall and likely taking the market down with it."

I'd say that's a bit of editorial bias with an agenda behind it.

 

[KarenRei]

So, we are looking at a miss on S&X - and beat on Model 3
View attachment 391860

To me the key point is that not only are we looking at a beat on the Model 3... not just a blowout on the Model 3... but potentially a serious inventory beat, too. I don't believe at all that there's going to be 16,2k *additional* inventory this quarter.

Tesla always prefers to cut prices rather than allow inventory to increase, where needed. Unlike most manufacturers, they're constantly fine-tuning their pricing structure to ensure low inventory levels, while they maintain production at maximum.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

OT - but interesting AF: VW is advertising with Greta Thunberg: What we do to save the planet (currently the first link on their global Group website). WTF?!?

I wonder what Greta thinks of that...

They aren’t serious about saving the planet while they’re still producing ICE. We haven’t forgotten about dieselgate yet either.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

OT - but interesting AF: VW is advertising with Greta Thunberg: What we do to save the planet (currently the first link on their global Group website). WTF?!?

I wonder what Greta thinks of that...

Safari tells me VW site is "Not Secure".
Wise.

 

[dgodfrey]

I never said a prototype was a Tesla killer, that term is idiotic and prototypes are for research or PR BS. These are not car show prototypes they are internal EV prototypes that companies use to test EV development. I am very aware of the state of legacy automakers and their issues, and barriers to quickly enter the EV market and I am in complete agreement that they are slow, ignorant and crippled. No one needs to convince me about the ICE industry or pro-EV talking points that would be like those that insist my EVs have a gas tank. My point was that there are people that think that some ICE makers have been sitting back doing nothing which is not true. Some have been doing work in the EV field before others that are selling EVs presently but those companies are doing nothing now to get into the market for reasons unknown. Toyota is a good example of this, they built the Prius with EV tech and the RAV4 EV. Toyota was poised long ago to build EVs but as we know they have done nothing. Are they ignorant? Are they milking ICE profits and FC money until they deem it's time to change? Perhaps they have a grand solid state plan that fits their long-term business plan. Or perhaps they are going to crash and burn as many here suggest, I have no idea but I know they can build EVs like others and that's all I ever said not that they are in any position to succeed or be competitive. I do know that some companies like MB were crippled by fear of the unknown, literally. They have taken small steps past that but like other compliance makers they seem to be ignoring basic premises of EV design and designing like they are building EVs on ICE platforms. IMO, complete failure. Nissan tried to jump in with a pseudo ground-up design but their culture was conservative and slow and ignored feedback from the US market. I met every product lead on the LEAF and they simply were not prepared for progressive companies like Tesla nor was it their space. These were passionate people restricted by a conservative Japanese company, this is why they opened offices in the SV in CA. There are many reasons traditional car makers will struggle or die in this market and even those with the ability to change manufacturing etc are far to messed up internally to execute. Look at GM and their lost opportunities. I do not see many good viable options in the near future for large scale growth outside Tesla at this time.

I hear what you're saying and have no doubt the talent and firepower is there. We and you can speculate why haven't they yet but it's just a mental exercise to ponder on our end. I'm sure somewhere in the TMC musings, lies the real reason.

My opinion aligns with the consensus of the majority here that they are walking a tightrope for profitability now and for the future. The corporate constraints not only cripple decision making with a "paralysis by analysis" culture but the umbilical cord attached to wall street requires quarterly results from an industry that needs decades to bear fruit. Not an envious position to be in.

Years ago when I first looked at the Model S, I was unimpressed with some of the detailing, quality, even design. I felt that Tesla was fortunate in that they were the sole player and when the Germans specifically wanted to scrimmage, it would be a blowout. Tesla would get crushed. IMO, the only real moat they had was the supercharger network. That's what kept me cheering them on as I could look past the aesthetics and minor imperfections knowing that if I wanted to have only 1 car and it was a BEV, I had no choice. I've now watched the improvements in every metric you can measure as well as appreciate their unique design language. Where my opinion used to be that any legacy automaker could build a better BEV than Tesla, I've now come to the realization that, no, they can't. If they could, they would. The latest offerings are pretty conclusive evidence of that. Audi and Jaguar come from a proud and distinguished heritage. Why would they intentionally embarrass themselves with what we've seen so far? Sure, if there was no Tesla, they would be industry standards to be fawned over but...…….

 

[Fact Checking]

One thing is certain: the SEC will consider the second, deleted tweet mate-aerial information.

Good'un. Two wings up.

Yes, and SEC is going to argue that his tweet is clearly covered by the settlement, through the legal doctrine of phonetic similarity - but we all know that their lawyers are only winging it and that for Hueston Hennigan they are sitting ducks.

No worries though, because a duck tastes the same whether they're shot sitting or flying.

/me ducks quickly

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

They aren’t serious about saving the planet while they’re still producing ICE. We haven’t forgotten about dieselgate yet either.

We should never forget about dieselgate.

 

[Unpilot]

I watched it. To his credit, the producer of the video disclosed he was a bear and I was pleasantly surprised how much time he gave Gerber and ARK. Pretty even-keeled and non-hysterical for a bear-produced video, which will make it more believable to intelligent consumers who don't follow EVs like we do. I feel they captured the general bear v. bull argument effectively.

Basically, the whole thing was a hit piece on Elon interspersed with some valid-sounding arguments on both sides. Sure, there have been some mistakes made, especially on Elon's Twitter (we can all admit this, right?). As a bull, I can't say for certain if the Solar City acquisition was a good idea or not. I don't think that story is finished yet, but the filmmaker spends a lot of time characterizing it as a bad idea and dissing Tesla Energy for not having a solar roof widely available yet.

There was virtually no mention of just how wrong the bears have been for the last decade. Elon's tardiness on reaching goals hides the fact that he eventually gets there and does so far ahead of the competition. The conclusion was that everything comes down to who is right about Elon- the bears or bulls. This is wrong. It's going to come down to 1. Will consumers love the cars enough to buy them and 2. Can Tesla sell them profitably. The filmmaker didn't even give his impressions of the car.

Other observations:

- No mentions of OTA updates or lack of competition. What about the actual cars? Do people like them?

-Linette Lopez and that Montana Skeptic guy were really granted victim status with Elon as the bully.

- Speigell and Gerber both looked pompous, obsessed, and blinded by their bias. Wood looked smart. Tesla Charts is a loon.

-The idea that TSLAQ is providing a service to humankind rather than just trying to make a buck is laughable but the filmmaker made those guys look like social workers or something.

- It's worth watching. It'll leave you saying "Wait, what about..." and "Are you even going to mention..." quite often. A good insight into the bear mentality. They are focused on Elon and ignoring the growing number of awed consumers.

Thanks for taking one for the team. No way in hell I could watch that ...even with plenty of beer and my trusty dog by my side.

Not enough time left on the old clock to waste on flat earth, chem trail, 911 truthers,no moon landing kooks, compressed air engine loons,and Tesla death watch folks.

Besides I am still 3 pages behind on this thread.

 

[VValleyEV]

It seems though that there's a groundswell of concern if not outright panic that what we've been proselytizing for the past 8 years is finally taken seriously.
The auto industry barely survived the Great Recession. Now it faces its biggest hurdle yet
It's going to get messy.

LOL about Tesla, “After reporting two positive quarters in a row for the first time in its history, it's struggling to remain profitable. ”.

No thought given to the idea of a conscious decision to defer profits for explosive long-term growth way in excess of ICE manufacturers. I think the message is that Tesla is a niche player that can’t make money on EVs. So for the door that they have opened to be successful in saving the planet, the big established manufacturers are going to jump in and save the day, spending the really big bucks and serious engineering talent at their disposal that are necessary to do the job. We should all be grateful that Tesla has set a fine example in barely surviving so far with their little toy cars, but now it is up to the real players to really make a difference (Sound of retching).

 

[tinm]

Also, regarding that RealVision video, it's worth noting that the show host Grant Williams, who views Tesla as a complete fraud, is a Managing Director of a Singapore hedge fund company called Vulpes. It would be interesting to find out if they are short TSLA.

Vulpes Investment Management - Homepage

 

[Causalien]

As a non car enthusiast outside looking in. The Taycan's look went from Roadster-2020-like that I'd order to econoshitbox level where I don't want to be seen coming out of. I am surprised how a few cm of changes on the lines of the vehicle can do that.

 

[mltv]

wild guess: the pickup truck floats (duck).

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

As a non car enthusiast outside looking in. The Taycan's look went from Roadster-2020-like that I'd order to econoshitbox level where I don't want to be seen coming out of. I am surprised how a few cm of changes on the lines of the vehicle can do that.

That car looks so not attractive, the concept seems great though, but the reality couldn't be further away from that. And its name, Taycan, is just plain weird.

 

[KarenRei]

wild guess: the pickup truck floats (duck).

Quite possible. And it'd make me pine for it all the more....

 

[CorneliusXX]

Lemur, hedgehog, elephants.

Now he has tweeted:

• a duck emoji,
• GIF of a pair of Western Grebe performing a mating dance (deleted),
• a song about a gorilla, published by "Emo G" (pun probably intended),
• Elon declared that the "lame duck" emoji won.

Guesses:

• Elon Tusk is just fooling around with us again (I still haven't completely forgiven him for not announcing the "tusk charger"),
• Tesla is going to introduce ''LAME": Ludicrous Advanced Mega Edition?

One thing is certain: the SEC will consider the second, deleted tweet mate-aerial information.

I think Elon is subtly criticising the SEC. They're either a lame duck or an overbearing gorilla. Probably Friday night speculation as he unwinds.

 

[ZsoZso]

Indeed, when saving files, I always use a YYYYMMDD at the end for easy versioning, however, while it's great for sorting, it's less readable by humans, for that the DDMMYY format is by far the superior.

I mean if it was 9:10 in the evening, you wouldn't write it 10:21, would you? What's the sense in putting the month first in the US date format.

Is there a historical reason for this?

You got it backwards. Year -> month -> day is from bigger unit to smaller exactly like hour -> minute -> second
Or do you like to write the time as 47:51:06 to mean 47 seconds, 51 minutes 6 hours ?
No, that is just as illogical as reversing the chronological order of the date!

BTW, Hungarians also use YYYY-MM-DD format.

 

[-=buzz=-]

To me the key point is that not only are we looking at a beat on the Model 3... not just a blowout on the Model 3... but potentially a serious inventory beat, too. I don't believe at all that there's going to be 16,2k *additional* inventory this quarter.

Tesla always prefers to cut prices rather than allow inventory to increase, where needed. Unlike most manufacturers, they're constantly fine-tuning their pricing structure to ensure low inventory levels, while they maintain production at maximum.

For the S&X if it's a beat on inventory, it's either a miss on production or a miss on guidance (<2018Q1 --> <20k). Nice catch22, there's always a miss....
Guidance for the whole inventory was around 10k, right? But without ships underway and no significant production changes that seems a bit high..
Production of model 3 is estimated at <5500/wk so basically the same as Q4. Where did the guided +7k units get stuck in transit?

 

[printf42]

wild guess: the pickup truck floats (duck).

Elon Musk on Twitter

This might be my finest work

My take:
Duck is code name for the truck because the front end looks like duck beaks.
It’s a bit too early for revealing so I guess he just approved to build the prototype.

 

[mongo]

wild guess: the pickup truck floats (duck).

So, in a battle judged by Harrison Ford of a signature Tesla truck vs a Ford fording fjords, the Tesla would win due to a Ford, while being affordable, not finding fjords fordable?

Edit: unless frozen