Can’t decide between Tesla and Tesla. Any help?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Elon Musk on Twitter
"Amazing work by Tesla Delivery teams, especially in Europe & China! Most insane logistics challenge I’ve ever seen. Thanks also to many country & city officials for your help this weekend! Super appreciated."
"Amazing work by Tesla Delivery teams, especially in Europe & China! Most insane logistics challenge I’ve ever seen. Thanks also to many country & city officials for your help this weekend! Super appreciated."
No “close to target” or “have to execute well” kind of comments or leaked email, could be a good sign.
Isn't that the only logical way?
BTW it is interesting, that in every other measurement unit (time, weight, height/length/depth, volume, money, etc.) everyone in the world follows the bigger --> smaller unit format, except with date, where we have this confusion.
Fordbid it, almighty God. I know not what Corsa others may Taycan, but as for Ford, give me a Little Birdy, or give me debt.
~Exeunt Patrick Henry~
This can only mean one thing: Tesla's Blade Runner Truck is doing driverless test laps on the moon as we speak!
I assume it has to do with the order in reading something. We say March 10th 2019. Not 10th of March, 2019.
Krugerrand
Meow
Krugerrand
Meow
So we’ve had car owners volunteer to help Tesla and now we’ve got country and city officials going the extra mile to help Tesla. Yup, company is going to fail.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Yeah, praising Q1 performance two days before end of quarter is so not Elon. Wondering what's going on - they wouldn't know financials this early, so it could be a deliveries milestone perhaps?
100k would be asking for (way) too much?
larmor
Active Member
They found out how to display the vertical and horizontal scroll bars on their spreadsheets...
And when it leaves the water or on demand, doors and flatbed begin flapping and dumping water on the nearest ICE vehicle
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
The Model 3 VINs are truly crazy this quarter: 142.8k new VINs in Q1, which with the 85% Q4 allocation density gives a production target of 121k Model 3's - totally incompatible with Fremont capacity, Gigafactory capacity, U.S. deliveries and Tesla layoffs.
My best VINology guess: 2018 Q2, Q3 and Q4 VIN allocation ratio was 85%, but in Q1'18 it was actually only 61%.
If we naively apply this 61% ratio to the Q1'19 VIN allocations of 142.8k, we get a Q1 Model 3 production of 81,700.
This is 6.3k/week, which is still too high, but at least consistent with the Carsonight estimates, and it's pretty close to Bloomberg's current Q1 estimate of 79.5k. (Which Tom Randal himself believes to be too high.)
Wall Street production estimates are around 65k - which is a small increase over Q4 production.
It's a plausible scenario too: maybe Tesla's $920m debt payment used up too much working capital to scale production, and Q1 tax cliff and seasonal weakness reduced U.S. demand, and we should also not forget that all the European and Chinese high ASP AWD configurations take more time to build.
Big spread in all the estimates: yay volatility.
Maybe we shouldn't overthink these tweets. May just be an honest reaction to all the field data coming in to his desk, a "wow it is amazing what you guys do to make this happen" moment like how he stopped for a moment and openly expressed his admiration and gratitude for what Tesla has achieved (the 0 cars to 500k tweet).
It is also a nice boost of morale for the troops working around the clock right now.
There's a Bezos quote that I think applies to Tesla here. I can't recall the exact phrasing, but something along the lines of when Amazon first launched the products which were the beachheads on which they'd build AWS, Bezos thought that if they were lucky they'd have two years before the big boys started competing.
They got seven years. And now AWS is entrenched as the market leader, and Google and Microsoft are working to catch up.
Seven years just doesn't happen, and yet Tesla got an even longer head start. Forget the Roadster--it has been nearly seven years since the Model S began production, and we're only now starting to see actual competition--for the early Model S. No one is competing on the full Tesla feature set and product line, nor on Tesla's volume. And no one is going to in the immediate future.
Had the incumbents taken Tesla seriously when the Roadster shipped, and begun copying in earnest the Model S immediately, they'd have been in a far better position to crush the new guy, or at least be producing products on par with Tesla.
Now? Well, just look at AWS. Warren Buffett said of Bezos in 2017:
"[Bezos] thought he would have two years of runway. He got seven years. You do not want to give Jeff Bezos a seven-year head start."
The same applies to Elon Musk, JB, Jerome, et al.
It's almost as though there's a method to the madness...
Side note: any of you near local delivery centers, consider dropping off some care packages today. I've brought donuts, bagels, etc at prior quarter ends, and the teams generally seem to appreciate it a bunch. They're surely working harder than most of us this week...
Mine was delivered to the North Houston Service Center from San Antonio. They did the inspection and drove it down to Galveston County the next day.
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