So....set a buy price for -9.9% from previous closing SP on a daily basis?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
jhm
Well-Known Member
Alternative number from EV-Volumes - The Electric Vehicle World Sales Database, 6.75M plug-in EVs, 8.3% of 81M total auto sales. With these numbers Tesla is at 1.14% market share.
FYI
This puts ICE (incl hybrid) sales at 74.6M. According to my calculations in the Shorting Oil, Hedging Tesla thread, these ICE sales are insufficient to sustain motor fuel consumption. Instead, about 85M vehicles would be required to sustain consumptions. This analysis support the view that peak oil demand occurred in 2019, and we are increasingly unlikely to see new oil consumption peak ever.
Anyone wishing to discuss this is encouraged to join us in the Shorting Oil thread.
Seems the TSLA baby's being thrown out with the bathwater the last week or so, so had to buy some call options today with expiry at various points over the next year. Who's with me?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Bought more - another buying opportunity. Getting tired of all the buying opportunities, and yet..
Good volume buying starting at low point 10 minutes off the close. Market closed well off its lows. Usually that is a short term bottom signal. Also below lower BB.
Flat to up day tomorrow waiting for Wednesday AM?
Flat to up day tomorrow waiting for Wednesday AM?
I think there's another big down day tomorrow. Likely another 4% down at the peak of selling and ending the day down 1-2%. Wall St's gotta get as much shares as possible of growth stocks cause the CPI report could blow up the whole narrative around the entire sell off
I wouldn't dare predict a bottom at this point .... just hanging on and trying to keep occupied so I don't dwell on the share price. Not much has changed regarding the restructuring of the auto business or Tesla's role within in so I remain optimistic .....
Cheers to the longs ......
Cheers to the longs ......
There you go repeating the same odd and incorrect assertions. Luckily for this argument the majority of my current acquaintances are in or near the ones you assert "tend to hate Tesla". Of course you need no data to make such an assertion. I have no solid data otherwise, just the anecdotal evidence of my friends. Two of them are members of the (in)famous Forbes rich lists, FWIW (in my pinion not too much). Among my acquaintances precisely none own TSLA as far as I know. The do own some odd and unusual vehicles, but their automotive tastes are, with a single exception, quite typically mundane Toyota, Lexus, and assortment of European brands. One, and only one is a car fan, and he has all the second-childhood boy toys. None own a Tesla.
These people are all well to the left of center politically with the single exception of the single right winger who owns all the boy toys. Every one of them admires Elon Musk for SpaceX and Tesla, although none are inclined towards activism in a political sense although they all do make the odd contribution to those who could effect control over onerous rules.
In sum, I ratter suspect you might just be guessing because quite a few vociferous rich people do not like Tesla. The notion of "status quo rent seeking industries" being the rich people's typical wealth source quite misses the point also. There are such people, old ones too. Sad to say you are seemingly allow your prejudices rule above logic.
Nothing much is ever close to monolithic. FWIW, not even billionaire Russians.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I was asking the question because I wanted to see if anyone saw a limiting factor to Tesla's maximum possible market share that I can't see. Because I see a lot of people holding the assumption that "Tesla can't make them all". And technically, this is true, there will always be, at a bare minimum, niche players filling special needs and vanity purchases of those who want to set themselves apart, no matter what the cost. But we should look at what defines that maximum limit.
In the most bullish scenario, Tesla develops a huge lead in terms of cost to produce. The amount of this lead has a limiting factor defined by how quickly competitors can emulate Tesla's production efficiency. That's difficult to estimate, in part because we don't know how much it currently costs competitors to produce their EV's. But let's be very conservative and say Tesla can never produce an EV with a cost advantage more than 30% over their next nearest competitor. More bullish scenarios are certainly possible here.
I think that there are very few people (as a percentage) that are willing to pay 30% more for the equivalent product considering a car is the second most expensive thing most people buy (after a house). I think at 30% cost advantage ~80% of car buyers would stick with the transportation solution that makes obvious sense from a dollars and cents perspective. Cars become more commoditized than they are now. Maybe as many as 20% would buy non-Tesla just set themselves apart or because even a greatly expanded Tesla model lineup doesn't have a solution for their unusual needs or wants. However, at limited production levels necessitated by a very dominate Tesla in this example, the price premium a buyer would need to pay would probably be a lot more than 30%. This ignores any distortions caused by robo-taxis but, remember, it's an exercise to determine if there is a limit on Tesla's ultimate potential market share in the most bullish scenario so let's assume no robo-taxi (even though robo-taxi might result in a higher market share, it adds too much complexity to this exercise).
I think if Tesla ever reached 50% market share with at least 4 or 5 other major manufacturers dividing the remaining 50% of the market roughly equally, then Tesla's cost to produce advantage would naturally widen further as competitors struggled with lower volume inefficiencies and the dam slowing their market share growth back would burst. Kind of like personal investing - the first million is the most difficult. This just means that if Tesla's lead becomes more unassailable than it looks now, further increases in market share will flow more naturally as long as Tesla is set on continuing to increase production. And if they have an unassailable lead, why wouldn't they?
note: this scenario assumes their cost to produce advantage climbs above 30% due to lower volume inefficiencies of competitors coupled with extreme volume efficiencies associated with very high volume production. This is also where potential anti-trust concerns could start to kick in a way that actually mattered. But that is currently a decade long process - very slow if Tesla's dominance is gained through the noble means of using innovation to continually drive the cot of their products lower.
The point of this exercise is not to assign probabilities to this most bullish scenario of Tesla as an automaker, but simply to explore the common assumption that "Tesla cannot do it all themselves". The limiting factor of EV adoption will likely be access to raw materials so I'm not sure the speed of adoption requires a lot of help from legacy auto to happen as quickly as possible. Certainly at this point in time it helps if they step up to the plate and chip in what they can, but I have a growing sense the transition to sustainable energy might happen more quickly the sooner they go bankrupt rather than with legacy dragging their feet and continuing to make millions of ill-advised ICE vehicles while touting just how green they are and how many models of EV's they have planned for upcoming years. The world doesn't need happy bedtime stories, it needs action. Bedtime stories just delay true progress and keep prices of EV's high.
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jhm
Well-Known Member
The market has really been puking its guts out lately.
From its peak on that one day rally Wednesday POST Fed, the QQQs are down over 10%.
That is a correction in three trading days.
Today, everything fell big, including GOLD. Safe Havens? I guess that would be SHORT or CASH. Or war / oil stocks. Everything seems to move in lockstep now. Guess this is what they mean by diversification.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I think it's pretty clear Elon has decided to push the Model Y/3 platform as their bottom tier. Eventually they'll get back down to a base selling price of something like $40k.
The wheels are in motion and the mission is already a success. Legacy automakers have been forced to transition as quickly as is physically possible limited only by the battery raw materials available.
Market share should logically land somewhere around 20%, with Tesla also taking 80% of profits. Standard iPhone-style disruption and market/profit share.
I buy the dips. Just a few shares at a time.
I've decided it might be good luck if I put in limit orders ending in 420.
So today I picked up a few shares at $794.20.
If Elon can do it, so can I. Wish me luck!
I've decided it might be good luck if I put in limit orders ending in 420.
So today I picked up a few shares at $794.20.
If Elon can do it, so can I. Wish me luck!
We have hit extreme fear finally
The Nasdaq is down 20.6% since March 29th. 10.5% since the end of Powell's speech. So yeah... its been bad.
I feel the same. Tomorrow could still flush, but with the Fed speeches tomorrow, they are likely to reinforce 50bps that should ease some of the treasury pressure. Allowing for positive pressure on the market as a whole... then CPI Wednesday will likely be the stage for the rocket or the next flush.
I don't like to read too much into Elon's musings, but this is an interesting one IMO. I sure wouldn't mind the overhang going away.
jhm
Well-Known Member
The joy of diversification is watching everything in your portfolio lose value when the Fed says something.
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