Oil producers, especially Russia, will over produce to dig themselves out of this hole. At the same time, nations like the US will be increasing domestic supply as a response to the crunch. Glut incoming, especially if we head into a recession.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
This Nasdaq pullback is an all timer at this point. To the point where this pull back while not as violent as the Covid pullback, is nearing that level. 2018 and 2011 pullbacks didn't quite go as far, but similar. 2016 could be there too and might be the most comparable considering the rise prior. Each one of these had a massive rally in the following 3 weeks to at least the mid Bollinger Band level. Whether that rally becomes a dead cat bounce or continues past the midpoint to the upper limit remains to be seen. Right now, that would mean a rally by the end of the month to the mid 13k level or about 15% (using 2+ year periods... 12800 using shorter periods). Tesla has been moving ~2x through most of this up and down. If that continues there should be a ~30% rally from here or 1050ish... at the lower level we should see 960ish.
That said, this is purely astrology the market will do what it wants.
That said, this is purely astrology the market will do what it wants.
I think Gary can just replace everything he says with "volatility". There are too many nuts and bolts in Tsla that causes very high volatility, including Elon's risk of dying. And for retirement/pension funds, they are looking for more stability.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Remember the good 'ol days when Tesla shipped Model 3, wandered through production hell getting it ramped up, and the company market cap went up .... and matched earlier market cap soon after Model S had shipped, and Model 3 was still a gleam that didn't have reservations yet?Only 15% away from when TSLA was added to the S&P500 one and a half years ago....
I guess not too much has happened with Tesla's productivity, debt, and profits since then.... /s
Yeah - this is like that
MHO - great buying opportunity, but that doesn't mean we can't go lower on a short term scale. Middle of the quarter - not a lot of big TSLA moving Tesla news to come out right now, and that leaves TSLA trading more in line with market moving information, rather than Tesla information.
Succession planning might now be the #1 real risk I keep an eye on for Tesla. And I'm not handing out a good grade on this topic to Elon / Tesla / board. I say real risk as the financial planners / management / wall street types use volatility as a proxy for risk. As with any quality buy and hold investment, volatility over a longer scale is pretty much irrelevant - its the company products, strategy, execution, financing that matter.I have lost track of how many "single biggest reason institutions are underweight TSLA" Gary Black has given in the last year. But today he thinks it's succession planning
What I would like to see: Elon stops attending the quarterly earnings, putting others front and center for the company. Even better - figure out a way to make somebody else the CEO and have them be the face of the company; an arrangement like what Elon has with SpaceX and Gwynne. Succession planning at SpaceX seems well in hand to me - at least a B if not an A. I give Tesla a D, maybe a C if I'm feeling generous.
To the degree financing has ever been an issue, I've taken this one off my list of risks. Tesla is really close to not caring about wall street and access to borrowed money. I like this.
Agree with the sentiment! To me it bears remembering that the Fossils are going to, have been, and are right now putting up a lot more fight than Uber ever could. Getting our society off of Fossils is going to be more akin to ripping out our own guts (while a devil with a trillion dollar megaphone yells at us that our guts are just fine) than fighting some external enemy. It is ugly now and will get uglier; I hope everyone here who cares about the environment and our future in it keeps their eyes open for chances to move us down the right path, beyond the obvious they are already doing regarding Tesla.
Thankfully once we get there, our new guts will work better, be cleaner (kill fewer humans) and last a lot longer...
Now, who's up for some lunch?
Stability we would get......if the credit agencies would actually give Tesla the proper investment grade it deserves.
But we all know the credit agencies are in the back pocket of Wall St, that's not even up for debate. So it's a self feeding cycle of volatility that Wall St themselves are creating.
in for another 25@$801 ... this seemed unrealistic a couple weeks ago ... need to free up some more cash
Man, those Q1 financials were so huge for TSLA. Relative strength since then even with the Twitter overhang is substantial. Elon also really did TSLA shareholders a solid by disclosing that he was finished selling TSLA shares a couple weeks back.
Interesting times ahead. I'm going to dust off my crystal ball and say that unless we get a good CPI print this week the market is going to need to dump lower and exhibit some real fear before buyers step back in. For as painful as this drawdown has been, it feels too orderly to be capitulation.
Interesting times ahead. I'm going to dust off my crystal ball and say that unless we get a good CPI print this week the market is going to need to dump lower and exhibit some real fear before buyers step back in. For as painful as this drawdown has been, it feels too orderly to be capitulation.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Gwynne Shotwell is 8 years older than Elon. She needs a successor at SpaceX, not Elon. Fortunately at Tesla, Zachary Kirkhorn is in his early forties, and already has a wealth of experience running day-to-day business operations. Together with Drew Baglino as Sr. VP (electrical engineering), they already have succession candidates in place.
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Me trying to decide if I want to convert some shares in my taxable account to call spreads, but then trying to figure out the tax consequences of all the trades.
Similar reaction here. I went through all 100+ of those slides; not sure it all stuck in my mind but a few things stood out as, well, outstanding:
- In 2021 Tesla's solar panels generated more than every Tesla factory used and every Tesla car used being recharged. Wow.
- Teslas are incredibly energy efficient to make and to operate, and compare extremely well in lifetime CO2 against average ICE's, and that is at current grid-mix charging. Wow - it only gets better as we continue to green the grid.
- Tesla is immediately reusing the cast majority of scrap from manufacturing, and is recycling 100% of the batteries they acquire - which is a small number since volumes are still ramping and we are early in the lifetimes of these batteries. They continue to push to reduce scrap and water usage further, and are looking into capture of rainwater at GF Austin and Berlin for immediate use (to preserve city potable water for you know, humans to drink. Or, Austin being in Texas, to pour on their lawns)
- Tesla reminds us gently that their cars are designed to never need a new battery pack (things like Taxi use notwithstanding)
- Tesla is continuing to push towards a far less energy intensive battery to manufacture (dry electrode).
Tesla is also using car-captured big data to understand way more collisions than NHTSA even tests, so they can make their super-safe cars even safer.
Does anyone know if other carmakers publish impact reports such as these?
I've watch intently, and decided that none of those people would make a good Tesla CEO, but especially not Ferris Bueller's friend.
CPI will likely be the turning point either way... either the rally back up or the slide down to ~10900-11300 for the Nasdaq. A drawback to 11300 or lower would be as bad as the Covid pull back (which I'd say was more panic than anything else) and August 2011. My crystal ball would be saying that would be such a rare event that it would very likely be the bottom. This could also be the bottom too as this is basically a once every 5-6 year slide.
In any case though, the recovery to ~13k is likely to be very violent whenever it comes.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
For me the only upside to the Twitter distraction is it reinforces the idea that Elon isn't the sole force keeping Tesla going.
Kirkhorn, incredibly, is actually only 37. Drew is 41.
Bought my first share since 2019 today. I'm back, baby!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Time to add "sugar posting on Twitter" to the Outlook calendars of Zach and a few others. Get them out there a bit.
Minor editThis one is fromDelorianGM PontiacGM:
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