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Yep! I think we're going to see dramatic changes within the next 5 years, both with EV adoption and solar. We've been "nearly there" for a while. The rapid expansion of the DCFC infrastructure takes away one of the two main negatives of EVs for lower income working class people and others that don't want to deal with "early adopter" issues. The other issue is still price. I'd love a MY either LR or P, but frankly $64k+ for a compact crossover doesn't do it for me, considering what a Rav-4 or Equinox goes for. (and I really want a SUV/truck rather than CUV). But economies of scale are ramping-it took a century for ICE to get where they are in terms of features and cost-EVs are doing the same in a couple decades. We're there concerning the actual build/assembly of EVs, biggest thing is scaling production of battery materials, the same way oil scaled over the decades. I feel like we're at a similar cusp with home solar-that it will be cost effective even without taxpayer subsidies. The biggest issue isn't so much the panel or hardware costs, it's installation costs and permitting/regulations. I do think we need more of a "pre-engineered" system such that installations are more uniform and permitting/inspection less dependent on the whims of the local inspector. Back to pricing, I don't feel right about taking taxpayer money from lower-income people just to save ME money on my electric bill.
Tesla does NOT do panels in TN as far as I know. I've been checking the site frequently with my address and it always says
"We don't serve this area currently. You can reserve solar and Powerwall below."
edit: holy solar panels batman, the site now lets me choose from 4.8 KW all the way up to 24 KW (9 different system sizes). In the past the range was much more limited.
I'm not even sure if 24KW of panels would fit on my roof.
Yeah, that's roughly what I was told by the Tesla "dealer" in Knoxville. I didn't get into the particulars as to why. I really need to look at doing my own installation and engineering. Did quite a bit of research about 25 years ago when considering going with an off-grid home. Wasn't quite feasible then due to economics, unless you wanted to make a lot of sacrifices in other areas (such as propane refrigerator/freezer, etc). Things have changed and I need to get up to speed. Got time now to do the research.
Yep! I think we're going to see dramatic changes within the next 5 years, both with EV adoption and solar. We've been "nearly there" for a while. The rapid expansion of the DCFC infrastructure takes away one of the two main negatives of EVs for lower income working class people. The other issue is still price. I'd love a MY either LR or P, but frankly $64k+ for a compact crossover doesn't do it for me, considering what a Rav-4 or Equinox goes for. But economies of scale are ramping-it took a century for ICE to get where they are in terms of features and cost-EVs are doing the same in a couple decades. We're there concerning the actual build/assembly of EVs, biggest thing is scaling production of battery materials, the same way oil scaled over the decades. I feel like we're at a similar cusp with home solar-that it will be cost effective even without taxpayer subsidies. The biggest issue isn't so much the panel or hardware costs, it's installation costs and permitting/regulations. I do think we need more of a "pre-engineered" system such that installations are more uniform and permitting/inspection less dependent on the whims of the local inspector. Back to pricing, I don't feel right about taking taxpayer money from lower-income people just to save ME money on my electric bill.
Sorry that you are having such a hard time vetting.
The solar panels should not have anything to do with the installers. They are a refined product with decades of proof in them, work great and have a standard warranty of 25 years at which point they still work just not at the same efficiency.
Even with low electricity rates I think you should be able to hit 8% returns with a breakeven of about 12 years without the ITC. Great investment by any measure, AFAIK.
In my ridiculous NYC locale I got a 3.5 year breakeven after all the tax breaks. Admittedly got the 30% at the time, plus some state and city backing.
The tax payer welfare would be you recouping your own paid federal taxes, and I personally have never seen that as welfare. Is it so terrible to have direct input on what your own personal tax dollars are spent on every now and then?
But whatever floats your boat. Or climbs your mountain, in this case.
Thanks. Do you have any recommendations as to good, reliable sources of information regarding quality components and design/engineering, as well as permitting requirements? Many sites I have found are from installers and are more marketing than information, if you know what I mean. You're certainly not wrong about (for once) getting something back for all the taxes I've paid over the decades.
Anyway, thanks for any info, I know we're getting off topic.
Are you sure? Which company are riders going to interface with in terms of a mobile app to hail a ride...? Would these Tesla vehicles strictly be sold to Boring company and be used in the tunnels or, as mentioned by Elon in various talks, have ways to get surface-side and go via roads outside of the tunnels?
(not asking leading questions, I really don't know)
Yes, I am pretty sure. They are already operating in Las Vegas, with the LVCC Loop, and Tesla isn't involved with an app. I don't think you hail a ride, you just show up at a station and take the next one. (I don't know how they handle payment.)
But again, the only revenue Tesla is likely to see is for ~500 vehicles. Right now it is fully operated by drivers... (Maybe they buy FSD in the future, or maybe they contract with Tesla for custom code to operate in the loop. I guess it is possible they enter into a revenue sharing agreement if Tesla provided code to allow driverless operation, but that isn't currently what is happening.)
Again, cut your fare down to $7.5 or something to account for a lower average fare, and while utilization might be higher in Las Vegas because they are 24x7, it is also likely to be lower as it has to be built out to handle a higher peak capacity.
Boring is paying a franchise fee in addition to regular federal, state and local taxes that would apply to any business. The Franchise Agreement can be read here and Section 8 defines payment terms as follows:
"Quarterly Gross Revenue less than or equal to a threshold of $17,500,000: 0.5% of quarterly Gross Revenue to COUNTY
Quarterly Gross Revenue more than a threshold of $17,500,000: 0.5% of the first $17,500,000 of quarterly Gross Revenue and 5.0% of all quarterly Gross Revenue in excess of $17,500,000 to COUNTY"
For today, @MP3Mike is correct in saying that Tesla gets paid by Boring Co solely for supplying the car hardware. Technically, this is not an exclusive supply agreement; in theory, competitors could also supply cars if they can present a compelling business case for Boring not going 100% Tesla. The main benefit to Tesla currently is the immense amount of free marketing I’ve been ranting about this week. Instead of paying for ads or luring customers into Tesla showrooms, now we get LVCC Loop going to where the people already are and effortlessly convincing them to ride in Teslas. It almost seems too easy, but as Sun Tzu said in the Art of War:
The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting...The greatest victory is that which requires no battle...To foresee a victory which the ordinary man can foresee is not the acme of excellence. Neither is it if you triumph in battle and are universally acclaimed "expert"... In ancient times, the skillful warrior conquered an enemy easily conquered and, therefore, the victories won by a master of war gain him neither reputation for wisdom nor merit for courage. He wins his victories without erring. Without erring he establishes the certainty of his victory; he conquers an enemy already defeated.
The big unknown, and why I think this is so hugely important for TSLA valuation, is that we do not know yet what the payment structure for FSD licensing would look like and how much of the revenue would be allocated between Tesla for offering the software and Boring for building the enabling infrastructure to make the robotaxis about 2-3x more valuable. FSD licensing and increased demand for robotaxis that can also use the surface roads to go to places not served by Loop stations is where the big money for Tesla will come from.
Speed is a win-win for robotaxis, because the customer is getting a more valuable service and the robotaxi is doing more payload trips per 24 hours with passengers and/or cargo. At the risk of stating the obvious, this is why conventional human taxi drivers are notorious for driving as quickly and aggressively as possible.
Energy efficiency is a less obvious benefit for the speed and utility per robotaxi, and by extension Tesla's mission success and profitability. Energy usage costs money and battery supply, plus charging takes a significant amount of time during which the robotaxi is useless. The fact that Tesla worked so hard to reduce power consumption on the FSD computer is a sign of how important this is. According to calculations done by me and some others on Reddit in r/BoringCompany, energy efficiency in a Loop will be significantly better than any form of motorized transport possibly could be, except the likes of electric scooters/bikes/skateboards, especially when evaluated on average across a year on a per-passenger basis. Here's why:
The vehicle will not be frequently accelerating, decelerating and turning sharply
The capacity factor (average percentage of seats actually filled with a passenger when the vehicle is moving) will be much higher than for a bus or train or typical 5-passenger personal car that's 80% empty most of the time
Most of the fleet can be smaller vehicles around the size of a Smart ForTwo to serve the roughly 90+% of trips with one or two people who want to leave immediately and go directly to their destination without stopping
The routes will be flatter in general than the aboveground surface topology in hilly locales
Airflow in the tunnel moves with vehicle stream due to the piston effect (link) because the tunnel is basically just a big smooth pipe, reducing airflow velocity relative to the car, essentially like flying an aircraft with a strong tailwind. Especially, vehicles in a platoon formation (basically a train but with cars linked dynamically with software instead of static metal hitches) will have a long, relatively uninterrupted slipstream. Vehicles ride for free in the low pressure wake behind the vehicle in front of them.
Drivetrain efficiency will be very good for the upcoming Tesla Battery Day powertrains which will be in mass production by 2023.
Rolling resistance will be minimized by the properly maintained tires and road surface as well as the mild temperatures, and also they can probably use smaller diameter wheels.
Aerodynamics of dedicated robotaxis actually can significantly improve on Model Y's coefficient of drag, because with a robotaxi we can eliminate the side mirrors, add fairings over the rear wheels, add side skirts like commercial trucks have, and add a tail fairing on the back side of the vehicle. (These are not aerodynamic features suitable for the traditional consumer vehicle marketplace.) We might even be able to tweak the general shape of the vehicle since exterior styling is less of a concern. Finally, we may be able to have a lower ground clearance for a tunnel-only taxi.
The road is smooth because it's not being continually stressed by weight from big trucks, ice wedging, temperature variation causing thermal expansion and contraction, UV radiation, tree roots, and shifting soil
The road isn't covered with rainwater, snow, slush, or hail from the pesky atmosphere and it will be clear of all debris
A large portion of this benefit is offset by the high speeds, but without knowing the exact operational plan and without doing computational fluid dynamics simulations it's futile to try to guess.
@MP3Mike is also correct in saying that LVCC Loop does not have any app, but that's because it's a simple system that only serves the LVCC. If you're in the center station, you indicate which way you want to go simply by walking to the left side or the right side after getting off the escalator. To my knowledge (and I believe I've consumed every morsel of publicly available Boring Co information released since 2017) we have not heard anything yet about how the app for the larger Vegas Loop would actually work or whether it would be just the Tesla app or a separate Loop/Boring app.
57k passengers per hour is the nominal peak capacity for the 29-mile first phase. However, 57k is massively sandbagging in my opinion, possibly by more than an order of magnitude in the long run. And last year Steve Davis formally went on record in the public Clark County hearing saying they will probably beat 57k. If the robotaxis for busy routes seat up to 8 people and they hit a 1-second headway like Elon claimed in 2019, that'd be up to 29k passengers per hour in just one lane. Safely maintaining 1-second headway is likely not feasible outside an enclosed, tightly controlled environment that is present in the tunnels. Yet another reason Loop will be a huge boost for Tesla robotaxis.
I have posted this before but here is my Boring Co spreadsheet. At this point I've spent hundred of hours researching the content and I think it's highly relevant for understanding the future of Tesla's robotaxis, Elon's wealth and credibility with the public and macroeconomic efficiency. Please DM me if you are interested in helping out with further development.
I apologize for not including any politics in this post, since that's clearly what's most important today.
It's IRA. Not sure current laws, but it used to suck-you paid full taxes on capital gains, but could only write off $3k in losses in a year (granted could carry over). Not sure where we are now. It gives me yet another excuse to drink.
It's IRA. Not sure current laws, but it used to suck-you paid full taxes on capital gains, but could only write off $3k in losses in a year (granted could carry over). Not sure where we are now. It gives me yet another excuse to drink.
How do you get to producing 20 million cars per year if not through extensive
capital investment, that’s the best use of free cash flow. Until Tesla
nears that goal it seems unlikely share buy backs are a priority,
Especially and purely for the purpose of sustaining the stock price.
A bit of a delayed response to this, but an important response I feel. The sentiment around sustaining the stock price and how important it is way too easily dismissed here. There are very real consequences to a company's stock flatlining and/or declining over a long period. I'll call out two specific ways.
1) Talent drain. The longer a company's stock flatlines, the harder it is to attract top tier talent or keep top talent.
2) Less employee compensation % is from employee stock gains. In order to stay competitive, said company has to either increase salaries/cash bonus, thus hurting profitability and/or through offering more RSU's to compensate, leading to more dilution
Both of these have pretty recent examples of the dynamic at play.
I was at Microsoft from 2010 all the way up till 2019. During which time, in the first 5-6 years I was there, Microsoft lost tons of talent to Amazon, Google, and Facebook because Microsoft employees knew the RSU MS was giving weren't nearly as valuable due to the flat stock as those from the other tech companies where those stocks values were increasing annually. The sentiment at that company during the years, the Balmer years, was flat out bleak. Because the stock was flat for so many years, Microsoft had increase the amount of RSU's the issues out every year, leading to quite a bit of dilution.
The most recent example though, and probably the best example and most comparable is Amazon. Amazon built it's compensation plan around the stock steadily increasing. And it worked while the share price steadily increased over the years. They could attract top tier talent while keeping their dilution low when it came to giving out RSU's. But as we know, Amazon stock started to flatline in 2018 and it only took 2 years for talent to start jumping ship. I have tons of friends and former collogues over at Amazon (about 70% at this point have left now), from low/entry level engineer to executive level. Amazon finally had to recognize that their compensation plan wasn't working a few months ago. Keep in mind, the guidance Amazon has given about costs of running the company rising significantly for the next few quarters DOES NOT include the fact they will have to increase salary and cash bonuses by at least 30% AND will have to issue more RSU's than they have in the past based on %, which means employee stock compensation is going to more dramatically dilute shareholders. I know this because I do talk with my friends over at Amazon and Amazon has made it clear to employees that the increase salary/cash bonus/RSU amounts will not happen until next fiscal year.......something Amazon conveniently isn't telling shareholders.
Now I'm not saying Tesla is currently in this position. But this dynamic can present itself if the stock stagnates for too long. If Tesla is sitting at 700-800/share this time next year because of another Elon induced drama, then yes I think some employees will opt to leave. Yes Tesla is ranked as the 2nd most sought after company for graduates.....but graduates aren't going to be ones making the big impacts to Tesla's software and technology for the next couple of years. Tesla has a lot of talent over there on the engineering and software side. They need that talent to stick around.
If Elon's antic continue for the next year that's having a clear impact on the stock price, yes either the board or people like Drew/Zach should sit down with him and say "You gotta knock this off man, it's actually making an impact on the employees at this point".
I'm down 65% with both ARKK and ARKG. Would like to sell and put it all in TSLA, but really don't want to lock in those losses! I'm hoping that once the recession ends, they bounce back as fast as they dumped.
So you are basically betting that they will appreciate from current value faster than Tesla once the recession ends. I guess it could count as a diworsifying move
I know long term this won't matter, but man is it frustrating to see this same pattern play out day after day. I feel sorry for TSLA like I'd feel sorry for a beaten down animal.
Sure something has changed: market sentiment. If we are going into a recession then it's possible the market will stay down for at least a six month period, perhaps longer. Dan might believe this will happen and a lot of his reduction might be due to that more than anything changing with Tesla's performance.
It's why I still feel we will see more PE compression for TSLA this year rather than a new ATH. I think this market will take a bit of time to recover itself, and in the meantime my hunch is the market will stay down for a few months, possibly until sometime in 2023. My amateur model predicts if PE compression keeps going along the trend then we could possibly end this year around $1000 ~ $1200 even with Tesla breaking records in Q3 and Q4. Of course this would give us a huge springboard for 2023...
In general, your second paragraph I agree with, ending the year at 1200. Maybe 1000 if the macro market takes another huge leg down.
But sorry, I'm not going to excuse Dan because of market sentiment. Especially when he didn't even mention that. He mentioned Shanghai and Twitter as the reason for the price cut, which as pointed out, his original 1400 PT was based on Tesla reaching 2 million annual run rate by end of the 2022. Q2 has zero implication for that because as he clearly stated before, 2 million annual run rate, not 2 million produced in 2022.
As for Twitter, I guess he thinks the Twitter drama is worth 400 billion market cap. Sure Dan. Does Dan even give EPS estimates? Cause I sure can't find them for some reason. He's a narrative/story driven analysts that really doesn't seem to do his own due diligence.
News flash - that’s not how fund managers see things or how they think or what they want.
#1 They want to make money
#2 They don’t actually care how they make it
#3 They say whatever, do whatever is necessary to make money; including but not exclusive to lying, fabricating, regurgitating worn out talking points, making up bs, instilling base emotions like fear in others.
#4 Did I mention they are habitual liars?
Think of Wall Street et al like another version of a politician and you’ll have a better grasp of who these people are.
Yes, they want to make money.
Ant they want to see a clear path to making money in the future.
With Tesla, they see two models and an uncertain future for future products.
I know long term this won't matter, but man is it frustrating to see this same pattern play out day after day. I feel sorry for TSLA like I'd feel sorry for a beaten down animal.
Performing as expected, market devalues TSLA due to YOY profits, while the others on this list are just powerpoint presentations and science fair projects.
This!
I would go as far as saying that Elon's ability to focus on one goal only is the main reason for his success. His Aspbergers might actually help him to treat all other factors, including politics, like pawns in the game. Cold, calculating and devoid of emotion.
In this Kara Swisher interview he articulated how he thinks about the environment and Tesla's role relative the rest of the world:
Musk talks about his “excruciating” 2018, fighting with journalists on Twitter, why Tesla won’t build an electric scooter and much more.
www.vox.com
Elon quoted from the interview: "It’s very important for the future of the world. It’s very important for all life on Earth. This supersedes political parties, race, creed, religion, it doesn’t matter. If we do not solve the environment, we’re all damned."
I know long term this won't matter, but man is it frustrating to see this same pattern play out day after day. I feel sorry for TSLA like I'd feel sorry for a beaten down animal.
MoneyGeek’s analysis identified the states most reliant on federal funding and found an intriguing correlation between dependency and political leaning.
The frustration that @Mengy has though is that TSLA has been treated like junk for the past 2 and a half weeks but now it doesn't get the bump that junk has gotten. It's one sided. Especially when said junk...cough Rivian....cough.....had dreadful earnings within that two weeks.
2) What happens when the sun goes down? They have to be better educated on this, the concept of batteries that last all night is not intuitive to them.
Even simpler that that:
When is peak energy demand? When the sun is in the sky and no clouds, causing all those A/C's to run at max.
IOW, PV's make the most electricity right when we need it the most. Having energy storage is a bonus, not requirement.
