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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
A microblog from weibo.com:
(The attached image seems a screen shot of a message from a Tesla employee):
Crazy delivery season! The whole company joined to deliver the cars to eager customers!!! Exceeded 10,000 in half a month in the country! Witnessed many colleagues became owners... Witnessed Model 3 became the next generation street car.
微博
#里程焦虑##边开边聊# 半个月交付1万台。。这内部执行力可以的。不过看着周围提车的朋友都多多少少出现了一些车的问题。这后续维修也是一个坑啊。
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More Q1 info from the Tesla China team:
Kelvin Yang on Twitter
'"Nobody in delivery team left before midnight" -- This is what's been happening theses days in Tesla China, for which I hope TSLA holders can appreciate.'
'"The quarter has concluded perfectly" they say'
'"Nobody in delivery team left before midnight" -- This is what's been happening theses days in Tesla China, for which I hope TSLA holders can appreciate.'
'"The quarter has concluded perfectly" they say'
To me this suggests they delivered every car that was scheduled for Q1 delivery.
Amazing dedication!
EVNow
Well-Known Member
This is the first time I've seen an actual number from China. So, 20k in China in Q1 seems possible. Add 15k in EU and 25k in US - 60k should be easy.
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Note that while traffic signs are standardized, traffic lights are surprisingly difficult: they are relatively small, can be next to the sun, change color and come in very diverse forms:
Traffic light recognition quality and reliability will be the bellwether of Tesla FSD progress, IMO.
By the time Gov't allow FSD, I think we will have smart traffic lights that have other modes of info transmission - ... cheers!!
(geo location, Signal status etc etc.)
Bah. This is Tesla. There will be no 50%. That's some dainty little number for mere mortals to play around with. 100% it will be and nothing less, especially now that the SEC has gotten Elon pissed.
- 2017: 100k
- 2018: 245k
- 2019: 490k
- 2020: 1m
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Good news from Oz. EVs have finally crossed the radar into federal politics.
We have a federal election looming. Opposition party appeared on breakfast TV this morning with a policy of “50% of new cars will be electric by 2030”.
It’s a nothing policy of course, because we (on this forum) all know that’s going to happen anyway, and sooner, but at least it’s got the conversation started. If we have a change of govt, which is likely, expect to see purchase incentives and support for charging infrastructure. At the very least, it should mean no road tax applied to home charging for a few years.
The model 3 has not yet appeared here. EVs are still viewed as toys for the rich. A few news articles showing what’s happening OS will open many eyes.
Waiting now for the predictable FUD response from the ruling party. Let the games begin.
Labor proposes tax breaks for businesses to buy electric cars
We have a federal election looming. Opposition party appeared on breakfast TV this morning with a policy of “50% of new cars will be electric by 2030”.
It’s a nothing policy of course, because we (on this forum) all know that’s going to happen anyway, and sooner, but at least it’s got the conversation started. If we have a change of govt, which is likely, expect to see purchase incentives and support for charging infrastructure. At the very least, it should mean no road tax applied to home charging for a few years.
The model 3 has not yet appeared here. EVs are still viewed as toys for the rich. A few news articles showing what’s happening OS will open many eyes.
Waiting now for the predictable FUD response from the ruling party. Let the games begin.
Labor proposes tax breaks for businesses to buy electric cars
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I think he’s short a factory for 2020. I think he’ll be doing fine if he gets the first 100,000 y’s done next year. What was his timeline for Y production?
(More in response to Alex Voigt than yourself)
I can't see the Swedish flag there, but I am quite certain I have seen exactly three (3) Model 3's of different color here in my little municipality over the past week or so, and our Tesla Club Sweden Grand Elk, Tibor, has reported taking possession too at an off-site parking lot from Arlanda airport. So add certainly 4, possibly 1,000 more deliveries in Sweden to those numbers
If you think about assembly plant growth, this is the start of the exponential curve. First assembly plant took 8 years to hit a production rate of 500k/year. Second factory will take less than half the time while making more money. Take that money and build two more factories, then use that money to build 4 more factories.
If Tesla car demand continues, it can quickly spread like a virus and overtake everything in 10 years time. You know those stupid "entrepreneur" games you play on your phone? First couple of hours is a grind and then it just explodes and eventually you make more money than they have words.
The car will most likely not replace everyone's purchase. Battery production on the other hand...
Tesla can scale battery production in 5 years time to be over 90% of planet's production. It can even hit 99% of planet's production if they just let exponential growth snowball as long as they are printing money.
Note that while traffic signs are standardized, traffic lights are surprisingly difficult: they are relatively small, can be next to the sun, change color and come in very diverse forms:
Traffic light recognition quality and reliability will be the bellwether of Tesla FSD progress, IMO.
Omg this reminds me of driving in Melbourne.
[checks where LA Trobe St is]
It is Melbourne! Seriously try driving on the wrong side of the road in those conditions. You have to make right turns (left turns for normal people) from the left most lane. And there is a tram splitting the road in 2. And animals crawling around carrying babies in a pouch! If FSD can solve that, I'll be impressed.
A sustained, annual growth of 50% is actually pretty fearsome.
F.ex. training and passing along knowledge to new colleagues would be a major challenge. (This is also true for a highly automated company, where the small number of employees still have to grow.)
Every year, every two employees (also those hired that same year), will make a new hire as productive as themselves.
A third of your colleagues have been hired this year, 5/9s of your colleagues have been hired this year or the previous.
In this extremely simplistic model, 70% of the current Tesla employees were not even working at the company when the Model 3 was revealed (three years ago, to the day).
Who was around when the lessons around the Falcon doors were made?
Who remembers how the motor for the Model S was chosen?
That's gotta be a challenge and going for even higher growth (I guess without hiring more people), seems like something .... that only Elon Musk would consider?
Gotta build a machine to build those machines to build the machines.
(More in response to Alex Voigt than yourself)
I can't see the Swedish flag there, but I am quite certain I have seen exactly three (3) Model 3's of different color here in my little municipality over the past week or so, and our Tesla Club Sweden Grand Elk, Tibor, has reported taking possession too at an off-site parking lot from Arlanda airport. So add certainly 4, possibly 1,000 more deliveries in Sweden to those numbers
Lol, the leader of your Tesla Club is known as the "Grand Elk"? That's awesome!
Too bad we have such a shortage of native land mammals. Can we use birds? I want to be the Grand Lóa (European Golden Plover)
Or maybe Grand Kría (Arctic Tern, annoying birds that divebomb en masse anyone who gets close to their nests), or Grand Fýll (Northern Fulmar, a bird that defends its nest with nasty vomit) Puffins are too obvious and easy of a choice to go with (although they are adorably awkward... heck, literally awkward too )
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Grand Fýll (Northern Fulmar, a bird that defends its nest with nasty vomit)
For that one we even have a native TMC emoticon:
For that one we even have a native TMC emoticon:
It's not just vomit, it's like a rotten-fish-smelling acidic glue that you can't get off your skin, and which mats other birds' feathers so they can't fly and ruins their water repellance so they can't float.
Don't mess with fulmars
At least with terns, there's a trick - hold up a stick. They always attack the highest thing around. They'll still poop on you and the like as they screach and swarm, but at least you won't have a razor-sharp beak going into your head. The downside with terns is that, unlike fulmars which you generally have to be climbing cliffs to bother, terns will swarm at seemingly random locations - even some places in Reykjavík proper. Terns are a*******. Lóas are nice, though. They're our harbinger of spring.
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Don't forget the drop bears. I've been told they can hide in traffic lights, although I've never seen one there.
No, actually that's just my own invented honorary title for himLol, the leader of your Tesla Club is known as the "Grand Elk"? That's awesome!
Too bad we have such a shortage of native land mammals. Can we use birds? I want to be the Grand Lóa (European Golden Plover)
But on our visit to Iceland a few years back we happened to find a craggy cliff by the side of the road where both puffins and a (for us rare) three-toed gull nested in holes, yielding a cloe-up view for our cameras. This was north of Húsavík, by the way, a little bit past a lighthouse, if you'd like to take a peep sometime.
To compensate I think you get the odd polar bear drifting ashore? Not to mention the grandiose horses!
My knowledge of English bird names is limited, but we did see two couples of the black-and-white, long-beaked "Tjelle" here the other day (official Swedish name is "Strandskata" but you might recognise it in Icelandic as well as Norse). Most cherished sign of spring around here.
Smoked puffin is supposed to be a delicacy, but I declined when offered a taste.
Anyway, I think I've seen a notice here that California has a state holiday on April 1. Hope that's true ...
Lets do some quick math to extrapolate Europe total of all Teslas Q1 from this:
ES/NE/NO did 9677 in Q1 (According to Alex´ tweet) and 1717 in February (according to our wiki),
so a factor of 5,6 (rounded) for Q1 over Feb numbers.
Doing this for all of Europe: 4293 in Feb (according to our wiki) times 5.6 leads to an estimate of 24,041 cars. Wow.
I can hardly believe this, but statistically, this is on a sound basis, as ES/NE/NO represent about one third of Feb sales in Europe.
Please point me to any mistakes I might have made...
EDIT/addendum:
Assuming S+X keeps stays the same at about 700 cars in March as in Feb, we´d have 22,600 Model 3 in Q1, which would be 8 boats (IIRC)x 2825 cars. Knowing they planned for 3000 per week in 6-7 weeks they´d have signinifcantly beat their own guidance it this is true...
Looking forward to the next few days as the real numbers materialize, we will be in for some really good press!
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In our little town in the west of Sweden I see Model 3s every day now. Just cykling to the supermarket tonight I saw 2 of them. Something is definitely happening.(More in response to Alex Voigt than yourself)
I can't see the Swedish flag there, but I am quite certain I have seen exactly three (3) Model 3's of different color here in my little municipality over the past week or so, and our Tesla Club Sweden Grand Elk, Tibor, has reported taking possession too at an off-site parking lot from Arlanda airport. So add certainly 4, possibly 1,000 more deliveries in Sweden to those numbers
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