Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

Elon has said that the initial 150K production at GF3 was 10% of capacity. So GF3 alone is expected to produce 1.5M cars.

Gigafactories are unlikely to be as small as 500K units in the future (excluding GFs for things like the Semi).

Indeed. It's not just about the number of gigafactories... it's also the output per factory that's going to be increasing. Note how much more production-dense the Model 3 line is than S and X. The "$25k Tesla" will be even more production-dense than that. I previously gave Tesla's focus on Maxwell's tech as another great example of a focus on production density - it takes an order of magnitude less space for the same throughput of active materials.

Look at a lot of the things Tesla is working on now. Dramatically reducing vehicle wiring and part counts. Making wiring harness elements that are rigid but can be bent by robots, so that robots can (rapidly) handle them rather than humans. Etc. 500k is going to be peanuts compared to what future GFs are going to churn out.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

Random Tesla truck thought. Elon noted when unveiling the Roadster 2, it's designed to provide a hardcore smackdown on ICE supercars. For the T truck unveiling, it'd be nice to see an actual demonstration. Perhaps arrange a live tug of war between the Tesla truck and an F150, F250, F350, F450 (or better yet, all of them simultaneously). While the Tesla is dragging them all kicking and snorting backwards, have a construction crew plugged into the truck's powerjacks (via long extension cords) and doing a bunch of "manly" construction tasks with a jackhammer, table saw, etc. Even the biggest redneck gearhead 4x4 ICE truck lovers would be tripping over themselves to go electric and place an order. Once green machismo becomes a thing the last bastions of the resistance will quickly crumble.

The other thing such a raw demonstration of power would do, if it's not too much of a fax paus to reply to my own post, is help chip away at some of the Republican party's continued opposition to all things green. Trucks are a main form of transportation and work platforms throughout the red states of the western and southern u.s. and if you can get the white males that run the political establishment in those places onboard it will be a key accelerant...

 

[ZachF]

Where will they manufacture 1M more EVs by 2023 - will need 2 more 500k giga assembly plants?

ps : Basically what I'm saying is - it takes years to complete a greenfield plant anywhere in EU or N America. If they want completed & productive plants in 2023, they have to be starting the project now. Might even be late already.

Shanghai GF (700k M3+MY) + Fremont (600k M3,S,X,R) + GF1 (700k MY+Semi?)

 

[mongo]

The other thing such a raw demonstration of power would do, if it's not too much of a fax paus to reply to my own post, is help chip away at some of the Republican party's continued opposition to all things green. Trucks are a main form of transportation and work platforms throughout the red states of the western and southern u.s. and if you can get the white males that run the political establishment in those places onboard it will be a key accelerant...

Pulling power is dependant on mass and traction. There is no way a 4wd vehicle can pull 4 similarly sized trucks with the same tires simultaneously (unless the drivers screw up).

I had the same issue with the Elon talk of the Tesla Semi pulling a regular semi uphill. If the regular semi locks its brakes to start and weighs the same, the Tesla would not be able to move it unless it was 6 wheel drive or did a slack chain jerk start to start the regular semi sliding.

 

[SPadival]

This tweet & the tweet above shows just how unpopular the media & the SEC are right now.
> 500 likes without any assistance from Elon.

DOUBLE SCOOP: Elon publishes the letter ‘y’ on x.com.


Media & SEC considers it material information.

S Padival on Twitter

 

[RobStark]

Icelandic Fox.

 

[EVNow]

So I think if Tesla decides to export Chinese made cars, it would work out well, people would buy them because they’re designed by Tesla, just like they buy iPhone and MacBooks which are mostly Made in China too. Also, Tesla would get huge Chinese gov support for doing so.

Exporting cars across continents don't work well logistically & politically.

You really need factories in China, EU & N America making cars for the local areas.

 

[30seconds]

I agree with you. The other aspect of it is about the founder. There are serious doubts about Holme's technical expertise. It seems that she doesn't really have the medical know how for the whole thing and hence couldn't see a clear path towards how to do it. Mechanical and software is Silicon Valley's forte, but the medical part. Contamination, analaysis is where it fell short.

But, if Tesla were limit with only FSD as its selling point and only have a 3 year runway to release. They will be forced to do some shady things just like Theranos. I think in this alternate reality, the Theranos moment for Tesla would've happened around the time their deal with Mobile eye broke and is switching to Nvidia. When the first version based on Nvidia came out and became worst than before. A full on press attack of similar stories would've broken a pure AI startup.

World’s biggest cluster of biotech is up the road in South SF. Plenty of medical expertise in the area. This is why she couldn’t line up any traditional bio VC to invest or be on the board.

 

[EVNow]

Shanghai GF (700k M3+MY) + Fremont (600k M3,S,X,R) + GF1 (700k MY+Semi?)

This should work - but I hope - they will have a EU factory by then. They need it to smooth out the production and delivery - and get out of delivery hell.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla Bjorn takes delivery of his Model 3.

 

[ZachF]

Icelandic Fox.

It looks like it controls the flow of Spice.

 

[EVNow]

Look at a lot of the things Tesla is working on now. Dramatically reducing vehicle wiring and part counts. Making wiring harness elements that are rigid but can be bent by robots, so that robots can (rapidly) handle them rather than humans. Etc. 500k is going to be peanuts compared to what future GFs are going to churn out.

Are you saying between Fremont & GF1 - they will produce 4M cars by 2030 & they wouldn't need any more NA plants ?

ps : They will start getting into hard problems in NV like water.

 

[ZachF]

This should work - but I hope - they will have a EU factory by then. They need it to smooth out the production and delivery - and get out of delivery hell.

From those numbers, East cost GF + European GF + continued GF3 expansion can get to ~3.5m

 

[anthonyj]

I’ve been isolating myself to $TSLAQ for the past few days and I am truly losing my mind. I pace around my house saying “bankwupt bankwupt TSLA zero”. Here is some new info on why Teslanos is going to zero

f-Elon on Twitter

Fwaud fwaud

 

[22522]

Making wiring harness elements that are rigid but can be bent by robots, so that robots can (rapidly) handle them rather than humans.

Interesting, Where did you see this?

 

[phigment]

seems the tweet is deleted. how did you catch it?

Fake. Look at the date... And tomorrow is April 1

 

[KarenRei]

Interesting, Where did you see this?

Tesla's 'Alien Dreadnought' factory takes a step forward with structural cable patent

 

[Pras]

Fake. Look at the date... And tomorrow is April 1

Oh, you got me!!! i almost threw my phone at the TV!.

 

[Pras]

To all Norwegians!! kudos to you... You have been the leading light for EV adoption!

 

[22522]

Tesla's 'Alien Dreadnought' factory takes a step forward with structural cable patent

Thanks!